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Border security should top Egypt priorities following Sudan, Libya turmoil
[ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] Following the eruption of protests in Sudan and the military offensive in Libya, apprehensions of insecurity on Egypt’s western and southern borders have started growing. It was no coincidence that both ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir Head of the National Congress Party. He came to power in 1989 when he, as a brigadier in the Sudanese army, led a group of officers in a bloodless military coup that ousted the government of Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and eventually appointed himself president-for-life. He has fallen out with his Islamic mentor, Hasan al-Turabi, tried to impose shariah on the Christian and animist south, resulting in its secessesion, and attempted to ArabizeDarfur by unleashing the barbaric Janjaweed on it. Sudan's potential prosperity has been pissed away in warfare that has left as many as 400,000 people dead and 2.5 million displaced. Omar has been indicted for genocide by the International Criminal Court but nothing is expected to come of it. and commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) Khalifa Haftar  ...Self-proclaimed Field Marshal, served in the Libyan army under Muammar Qadaffy, and took part in the coup that brought Qadaffy to power in 1969. He became a prisoner of war in Chad in 1987. While held prisoner, he and his fellow officers formed a group hoping to overthrow Qadaffy. He was released around 1990 in a deal with the United States government and spent nearly two decades in the United States, gaining US citizenship. In 1993, while living in the United States, he was convicted in absentia of crimes against the Jamahiriya and sentenced to death. Haftar held a senior position in the anti-Qadaffy forces in the 2011 Libyan Civil War. In 2014 he was commander of the Libyan Army when the General National Congress (GNC) refused to give up power in accordance with its term of office. Haftar launched a campaign against the GNC and its Islamic fundamentalist allies. His campaign allowed elections to take place to replace the GNC, but then developed into a civil war. Guess you can't win them all...visited Cairo as tensions reached their peak back home, in a demonstration of where Egypt’s bets were placed at the time. It is difficult to predict at this point how susceptible Egypt is to a spillover of unrest. It is equally difficult to measure the sustainability of Egypt’s current alliances with both Sudan and Libya. Egypt’s support for Haftar is not a surprise as, since launching Operation Dignity in 2014 in Benghazi, he has posed as the archenemy of Islamist militias and the only one capable of curtailing the growing influence of ISIS and similar groups. In fact, the kidnapping and beheading by ISIS of 21 Coptic Egyptian workers in Libya in 2015 was seen by many as retaliation for Egypt’s support for Haftar. Meanwhile, ...back at the revival hall, the congregants were being herded into the paddy wagon... the executive authority in Tripoli ...a confusing city, one end of which is located in Lebanon and the other end of which is the capital of Libya. Its chief distinction is being mentioned in the Marine Hymn... , which sees Haftar’s offensive as a "coup," as Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj put it, is recognized by the UN. As a military strongman and commander of an army that has received the financial and logistical support of several allies, Haftar is the only hope Egypt has to secure its western border, which has been quite porous lately. Egypt’s stance on Haftar can be compared to that of La Belle France, which reportedly backs him in the hope that his victory will achieve the kind of stability that would curb the influx of im With Sudan, the situation is a little different. Bashir and Egypt have not exactly been on the best terms for several reasons, including the dispute over the Halayeb Triangle, Sudan’s support for Æthiopia’s construction of the Renaissance Dam, and Sudan’s close ties with Qatar  ...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...and ...Qatar's colony in Asia Minor.... . Bashir’s government also sympathized with Islamists and provided refuge to several Moslem Brüderbund members who fled from Egypt following the ouster of President Mohammed Morsi. But the protests seem to have brought the two countries closer. Egypt has openly declared that it prioritizes Sudan’s stability and supports the will of the Sudanese people. For Egypt, it makes no difference who is in charge, whether Defense Minister and former Vice President Awad Ibn Auf, who toppled Bashir, or Bashir’s de facto successor Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Bourhan. Either way, having the military in power is in Egypt’s best interests. Not only will the southern border be secured, and the threat of im Earlier reports of the expulsion of Moslem Brüderbund members from Sudan under Bashir had already signaled a possible rapprochement with Egypt, which can now make its backing of the post-Bashir government contingent upon an official anti-Islamist stance and a dissociation from countries that support the Moslem Brüderbund. Haftar is expected to be a much closer ally to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. If he emerges victorious, both would work together to clamp down on weapons smuggling and Death Eater gunnies crossing to either side. Every chance Haftar stands to stabilize Libya is also a chance for Egypt to protect itself against terrorist threats. Through Libya, Egypt can seal off a vital passageway for gangs. Through Sudan, which saw Bashir’s now disbanded National Congress Party as the last standing Islamist stronghold in the region, it can deal a blow to Bashir’s allies Qatar and Turkey. If its southern and western neighbors embrace the same view of stability and adopt the same approach to national security, the Egyptian government can rest assured that neither protests nor armed struggles will be exported to its turf. Egypt’s formula of eliminating Islamists and putting the military in charge, however, is not easily applicable in Sudan and Libya. The political complexity and number of warring factions in both countries make the situation there entirely different. The parties that have stakes in the Sudanese political scene are too ferocious to promise a smooth transition. There is no guarantee that some parties will reach a peaceful understanding as far as the division of power is concerned. The situation is similarly intricate in Libya, as the fall of Tripoli to Haftar’s troops will neither give him legitimacy nor secure a final victory against Islamist militias. It is hard to predict, therefore, if either country will achieve full stability in the near future, keeping Egypt’s borders fully secured. Posted by: Fred 2019-05-02 |
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