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The end of America's 30-year engagement with China?
Quite possibly, and without regard to what happens in Hong Kong. President Trump’s on-and-off tariff threats to China have shown his willingness to upend U.S.-China economic ties. Unlike his predecessors, he regards imports from China as harmful. In his view, they provide cheap clothes and toys to American consumers, but they also have destroyed more American manufacturing jobs than expected. In any case, China's economic growth has been flagging, and its work force has essentially stopped growing. Post-Tiananmen annual growth, unparalleled in history, ranged from 8% to 14% from 1991 to 2013, but has tailed off, probably below the official 6% level. Thanks to China’s longtime one-child policy, its working-age population has been declining, down 3% since 2011. For years, one big question about China was whether it would get old before it got rich. The answer seems to be that it has gotten old about halfway up the path. Poverty is way down, but incomes significantly lag those in North America, Western Europe and East Asia, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, just as the United States once lost low-skill manufacturing jobs, so China is losing them now. Posted by: Besoeker 2019-08-23 |
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