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A U.S.-Taliban Deal Is Likely. Peace in Afghanistan Is Not.
[Stratfor] On Sept. 2, U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad heralded a draft peace deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan, capping almost a year of negotiations. But an insurgent attack in Kabul on the heels of that announcement prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to abruptly call off negotiations on Sept. 7, which were aimed at starting the long process to finally end their 18-year conflict in Afghanistan. U.S.-Taliban talks, however, were always likely to resume due to the two sides' shared need for a political settlement. And indeed, with officials from both sides arriving in Pakistan on Oct. 2, it looks as if they might soon recommence.But until the government in Kabul reaches its own "intra-Afghan" cease-fire agreement with the Taliban, fighting will persist regardless of whatever deal the United States eventually strikes with the insurgent organization. And thus, the fate of peace in Afghanistan will hinge more on whether the winner of the country's Sept. 28 presidential election can successfully broker his own deal with the Taliban. Posted by: Besoeker 2019-10-04 |
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