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What if Bush has been right about Iraq all along?
| Enjoy this sort of thing while it lasts. It'll wear off soon... |
BY MARK BROWN SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST
Maybe you're like me and have opposed the Iraq war since before the shooting started -- not to the point of joining any peace protests, but at least letting people know where you stood.
| I'm not, but go on. I'm interested in what your opinion is now... |
You didn't change your mind when our troops swept quickly into Baghdad or when you saw the rabble that celebrated the toppling of the Saddam Hussein statue, figuring that little had been accomplished and that the tough job still lay ahead.
| I fully expected our troops to sweep quickly into Baghdad, and I fully expected the "rabble" to celebrate the toppling of his statue. That sort of thing's predictable in states where Fearless Leader gets 99.9 percent of the vote. And I wasn't under the illusion that things would be easy from that point. Look to Iraq's east, northwest, and south and see how friendly things look. A successful Iraq is a mortal danger to all three. |
Despite your misgivings, you didn't demand the troops be brought home immediately afterward, believing the United States must at least try to finish what it started to avoid even greater bloodshed.
| Had the troops been brought home as soon as Sammy was kicked out, I wouldn't have turned a hair. I'd have been wrong, since Sammy and his bad boyz would have come crawling back out from under their rocks. |
And while you cheered Saddam's capture, you couldn't help but thinking I-told-you-so in the months that followed as the violence continued to spread and the death toll mounted.
| I nver thought "I told you so" once. I was paying attention. What were you doing? |
By now, you might have even voted against George Bush -- a second time -- to register your disapproval.
| Not me. Told you, I was paying attention. |
But after watching Sunday's election in Iraq and seeing the first clear sign that freedom really may mean something to the Iraqi people, you have to be asking yourself: What if it turns out Bush was right, and we were wrong?
| He was right, you were wrong, but the important thing is how you take it. You can look at the fact with your eyes open and make a rational decision, or you can decide that since you know Bush is stoopid and controlled by sinister cabals there must be something wrong and keep looking until you find something that will do to justify writing him off. |
It's hard to swallow, isn't it? If you fit the previously stated profile, I know you're fighting the idea, because I am, too. And if you were with the president from the start, I've already got your blood boiling.
| My blood's not boiling. We've spent a lot of time trying to convince you guys. We tried persuasion. We tried argument. We tried ridicule. I just hope the water's cold enough this time to keep you awake for awhile. |
For those who've been in the same boat with me, we don't need to concede the point just yet. There's a long way to go. But I think we have to face the possibility.
| Since your nose is being rubbed in it... |
I won't say that it had never occurred to me previously, but it's never gone through my mind as strongly as when I watched the television coverage from Iraq that showed long lines of people risking their lives by turning out to vote, honest looks of joy on so many of their faces. Some CNN guest expert was opining Monday that the Iraqi people crossed a psychological barrier by voting and getting a taste of free choice (setting aside the argument that they only did so under orders from their religious leaders).
| Some Shiites did. I doubt if any Kurds or Turkmen or Chaldeans did. And the Sunnis who voted obviously did so in the face of orders from their holy men not to and the threats from the Bad Guyz that they'd kill them if they did. |
I think it's possible that some of the American people will have crossed a psychological barrier as well. On the other side of that barrier is a concept some of us have had a hard time swallowing: Maybe the United States really can establish a peaceable democratic government in Iraq, and if so, that would be worth something.
| Bingo. Before it was an abstraction, something that was going to maybe kinda sorta happen somewhere down the line but it'd prob'ly be screwed up. Sunday, somewhere down the line arrived, and it wasn't screwed up, and in fact it was well within tolerances. |
Would it be worth all the money we've spent? Certainly.
| It's "pay me now or pay me later" money. If you pay later, it'll be with interest. |
Would it be worth all the lives that have been lost? That's the more difficult question, and while I reserve judgment on that score until such a day arrives, it seems probable that history would answer yes to that as well.
| History will answer "of course." The lives expended are "pay me now or pay me later," too. And the performance of the military has been magnificent. The casualty rates are extremely low, given the level and type of combat. |
I don't want to get carried away in the moment. Going to war still sent so many terrible messages to the world.
| I don't think "If you attack us, we'll kill you" is a bad message to send to the world. I don't think "If you help people attack us, we'll kill you" is a bad message. The first was the message sent to Afghanistan. The second the message sent to Iraq. Now we're sending a third message: "If you're a bloody-handed dictator, we don't like you, so watch it, buddy!" |
Most of the obstacles to success in Iraq are all still there, the ones that have always led me to believe that we would eventually be forced to leave the country with our tail tucked between our legs. (I've maintained from the start that if you were impressed by the demonstrations in the streets of Baghdad when we arrived, wait until you see how they celebrate our departure, no matter the circumstances.)
| Probably so. I'm not blind to the possibility. But an alternative to total withdrawal is a Status of Forces Agreement that'll go on for years, as with Germany and Japan. I also think you're assuming more revulsion toward the U.S. than there actually is within the Iraqi mainstream. There's a subset that'll jump up and down and make faces, and probably a larger subset that'll miss us, and probably a majority that'll be indifferent. Guess which bunch will take to the streets if the occasion arises? |
In and of itself, the voting did nothing to end the violence. The forces trying to regain the power they have lost -- and the outside elements supporting them -- will be no less determined to disrupt our efforts and to drive us out.
| Here's where I lose touch with the guys who oppose what we're doing. The forces trying to regain the power they have lost are evil to the bone. Binny and Zawahiri and Zarqawi and al-Douri and the Association of Venomous Muslim Scholars would fit right in with Fu Machu, Professor Moriarty, and the Council of Boskone. Attila the Hun was more reasonable and sweeter natured. Genghis Khan would be shocked at some of the things they do. They've declared war on us. They attacked us. They hate us and they want to kill us all. Where's the hesitation in whether we "should" exterminate them? |
Somebody still has to find a way to bring the Sunnis into the political process before the next round of elections at year's end.
| I don't give a crap if a single Sunni finds his way into the political process. It's a choice they're making self-determination, remember? Well, they're determined not to play unless they can be in charge. |
The Iraqi government still must develop the capacity to protect its people.
| There's a problem, isn't it? Iraq's military was very good at rolling over people with tanks, not very good at repelling enemies unless they were dirtbag pickup armies like Iran's. Building the Duty-Honor-Country tradition's going to be difficult. It'll take every day we're there and then some. We won't know if it took until they have their next government crisis. |
And there seems every possibility that this could yet end in civil war the day we leave or with Iraq becoming an Islamic state every bit as hostile to our national interests as was Saddam.
| Or another fascist dictatorship. Or they could become commies. Over time they could come to be ruled by an oligarchy probably the most likely outcome in the long run or they could become European-style social democrats and hate us because we're crass Americans. There are lots of possibilities, and at the moment none of them appear to be probabilities. So why not worry about them later? We have lots of other things on our plate now. |
But on Sunday, we caught a glimpse of the flip side. We could finally see signs that a majority of the Iraqi people perceive something to be gained from this brave new world we are forcing on them. Instead of making the elections a further expression of "Yankee Go Home," their participation gave us hope that all those soldiers haven't died in vain. Obviously, I'm still curious to see if Bush is willing to allow the Iraqis to install a government that is free to kick us out or to oppose our other foreign policy efforts in the region. So is the rest of the world. For now, though, I think we have to cut the president some slack about a timetable for his exit strategy. If it turns out Bush was right all along, this is going to require some serious penance. Maybe I'd have to vote Republican in 2008.
Posted by: Fred 2005-02-01 |
