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Putin Now Owns the Syrian Chaos
[Hudson Institute] One of the benefits of attending the Valdai Club annual meeting in Sochi is the opportunity to understand were and how strong the wind is blowing in Russian foreign policy. The speeches are not enough. Brief words exchanged in the empty halls of the large hotel up in the Polyana mountains speak much louder ‐ sometimes with an echo.snip The problem is acute in Syria. Russia has maneuvered itself into a preeminent position and has even succeeded in forcing the United States to conclude that its position in the country is unsustainable. Trump has just announced a withdrawal. But the problem with being in charge is that no one else can provide order. Trump wasn't forced. It was the right decision, one in the interests of the American people. It wasn't in the interest of the tiny number of globalists in America, thus their fury at their war being taken away from them. Russia perhaps feels that it can do it on its own, but it knows it must find new tools and adopt a new mindset in this expanded role. In Valdai, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov again assumed the role of indefatigable mediator between all factions and interests in Syria ‐ although a certain exasperation now seems to be creeping in. When Putin meets Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi this week, he may well feel that his life mission has been accomplished. For the first time, he sits at the apex of the world order. In what concerns Syria at least, no one is above him. Syria is a worthless piece of desert. He can have it. Now he owns all of the problems there. A big win for America. We have no interests there. But that also means that no one else can solve the problems arising everywhere. He must bring together Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, the latter still under the leadership of a violent armed organization. Then he must conciliate the Kurds and the Assad regime and, finally, prevent a war between Turkey and Syria. If Russia fails, all these actors will quickly turn against it. The question thus is: if Russia is under the obligation of creating political order in Syria, what makes us believe that it is up to the task and willing to pay the associated costs ‐ when even the United States is powerless to create order and does not see the benefits of doing so? Who the hell said that was our job? None of these people have ever questioned their assumptions. The moment reminds me of the idea advanced after Davos two years ago that China would replace America as the lynchpin of globalization and free trade. As Machiavelli could have told us, things are never so simple. Posted by: Herb McCoy 2019-10-26 |
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