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Calm before the Chechen storm?
A surprise unilateral cease-fire ordered by two top Chechen rebel commanders has Moscow abuzz with debate. Experts are asking, is it a genuine chance for peace, a PR stunt, or an artificial lull before a fresh storm of Beslan-style terrorist assaults?Few see much hope of ending the Chechen war, now well into its sixth year, unless there is a political breakthrough that sees the Kremlin, the separatist rebels, and pro-Moscow Chechen forces sit down together to seek a settlement. President Vladimir Putin appears determined to stay his chosen course, which involves signing a treaty with the Kremlin's handpicked Chechen leader Alu Alkhanov - perhaps as early as this May - that will lock Chechnya into Russian permanently. But amid reports that the rebels could have acquired a nuclear device or radiological weapons, many experts see only an escalating cycle of violence in the offing. "The situation in Chechnya is currently at a dead end," says Alexander Iskanderyan, director of the independent Center for Caucasian Studies, in Yerevan, Armenia. "The key to its solution is in the Kremlin, but I see little hope of change there." Posted by: Dan Darling 2005-02-11 |
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