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Europe's Defense Debate is all about America.
[War on the Rocks] The key point to understand about the European defense debate is therefore that it is all about the United States — at least indirectly. For the vast majority of Europeans, their attitude toward the United States — and thus NATO — determines their attitude toward European defense cooperation, not the other way around. Likewise, in times of growing transatlantic uncertainties, expectations about what the United States will do are what determines Europeans’ willingness to even think about a possible plan B.

That European attitudes toward the United States determine attitudes toward European defense cooperation is linked to threat perception. Threat perception varies widely across Europe, in both the nature and the intensity of threats perceived. In a nutshell, the debate is about threats from the south (failed states, terrorism) and threats from the east (Russia). Historical legacies obviously matter in countries’ threat perceptions, as does geography. A country’s defense priorities then inform its perceived and actual dependence on the United States. For the Atlanticists among the Europeans, this is thus not simply about blind followership no matter what Washington does or says. It is ultimately about ensuring the nation’s survival. Hence the United States as the independent variable — and the fear to engage in any kind of activity that might alienate Washington.

That attitudes vis-à-vis the United States are the determining factor thus applies to the United Kingdom and Germany as well as other traditional Atlanticists such as the Netherlands. The rule of thumb holds even more true for the so-called Eastern flank countries, that is the Baltic states, the Nordic states, Poland, or Romania. The equation is simple: Without the Americans, they are helpless in facing their main threat, Russia. The greater the fear of Moscow, the stronger the respective capital clings to the United States. What Atlanticist countries are interested in today is effective deterrence against Russia. In their certainly accurate view, nobody else can provide credible deterrence but the Americans. Therefore, the transatlantic security link remains the only game in town: this means NATO, as well as all the bilateral U.S. engagement in European security, including with non-NATO countries Finland and Sweden. Any European type of defense cooperation, such as the European Union’s Common Security and Defense Policy, is consequently relegated to second place: a nice-to-have, which must not negatively affect NATO. Real defense is about Russia, together with the United States, as there is simply no viable alternative to Washington.

The major exception to that rule is France. France’s attitude vis-à-vis the United States traditionally derives from Paris’ own priorities. With its own (exclusively national) nuclear deterrent and a self-image as a capable military actor with global reach, France just does not consider its own survival to be linked to U.S. engagement in European security. In terms of defense, the French key priority is fighting terrorism in the “global south,” in particular in Africa. In these endeavors, France cooperates very closely with the United States and has tried hard to convince the United States to not abandon it in West Africa. (With some success: In late January, U.S. Defense Secretary Marc Esper announced that the United States would not completely withdraw forces from the region.) Yet, close transatlantic security ties are simply not as vital for France as they are for other European countries. Replacing the United States as a partner in the Sahel is obviously hard to do, but not impossible — in particular if Europeans join forces. The “traditional” Russian threat to European security is, in turn, not very high on France’s agenda, nor is conventional deterrence against Moscow — and that is the Eastern flank’s key preoccupation. Thus France’s engagement in NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltics is in reality better understood as Paris securing, for instance, Estonia’s support for expeditionary operations in the Sahel. For France, that is what real defense is about.

Replacing the United States is not on France’s agenda. Yet, Paris apparently fails to understand the fears that lead many Europeans to bet so heavily on the United States. As seen from Paris, and given French defense priorities, the United States is less difficult to replace than as seen from Warsaw. Moreover, France simply does not seem to understand that anything emanating from Paris is seen against the backdrop of several decades of Gaullist legacies, of which Macron’s Economist interview is the latest example. That many perceive Macron as pursuing a Gaullist agenda certainly does not help Paris’ cause — precisely because it is viewed as France’s cause rather than Europe’s.
Posted by: 3dc 2020-03-09
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=565530