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Another blow dealt to public faith in scientific models: Devine
[NYPOST] The random antibody testing of 3,000 people across the state of New York has delivered yet another blow to the faith we placed in the computer models that Governor Cuomo and President Trump used to shut down the economy and place all of America under virtual home detention.The tests show 2.7 million in New York state have developed antibodies through exposure. Meaning, with 16,000 COVID-19 deaths, the state’s mortality rate is a little less than 0.6 percent. Nowhere near as lethal as the dire 3.4 percent death rate the World Health Organization was billing early last month, and these figures will keep changing as more data comes to hand. And it wasn’t all because we are perfect practitioners of self-isolation and hand washing. The President’s coronavirus (aka COVID19 or Chinese Plague)  ...the twenty first century equivalent of bubonic plague, only instead of killing off a third of the population of Europe it kills 3.4 percent of those who notice they have it. It seems to be fond of the elderly, especially Iranian politicians and holy men...task force took into account those mitigation measures when it used an amalgam of models to predict that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans likely would die. A model from the University of Washington has since revised the projected corpse count to 60,000 down from an initial 162,000. As of Friday, 51,000 Americans had bit the dust, and now the updated models are edging closer to grim reality. Posted by: Fred 2020-04-26 |
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