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All Of The Coronavirus Models Were Wrong
 [EndOfTheAmericanDream] How is it possible that all of the coronavirus models could have been so completely and utterly wrong about what was going to happen?
| Given that the Chinese lied about all sorts of things, amplified by the pliant officials at the World Health Organization, it was not possible for the models to have been right at the beginning. |
Very early in this pandemic, some models that were predicting millions of deaths caused quite a bit of panic all over the globe. In fact, a projection done by researchers at the Imperial College of London warned that 40 million people could die from COVID-19 this year alone. Obviously that estimate was dead wrong, and it has become quite clear that this pandemic is not an "end of the world" scenario. But on the other extreme, there have been a lot of models that were forecasting a relatively low death toll, and those models have been proven to be completely wrong as well....
| It is not reasonable to expect a model to perfectly predict the future. Models are merely hypotheses expressed in numeric formulas instead of words, awaiting the repeated test of reality to 1) see if they are true, and 2) see how much they need to be modified to more closely resemble reality. g(r)omgoru has talked about the important thing is getting the shape of the curve right, not its exact dimensions. |
Posted by: Clem 2020-05-01 |
