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Election Prediction Model That Has Been Correct 25 of the Last 27 Elections Says Trump Will Win in a Landslide
[Red State] Stony Brook Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth has created a Presidential Election prediction model which has correctly predicted the winning candidate in 25 of the last 27 Presidential elections, going back to 1912, the first year presidential primaries in the states were used in each party’s nominating process. The only two years the model was wrong were 1960, with Kennedy beating Nixon — although there are strong historical accounts that election fraud in Texas and Illinois delivered both states to Kennedy when, in fact, the voters of Texas and Illinois selected Nixon. If those two states had been declared for Nixon, they would have given him exactly 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win the election.The other year the model was incorrect was 2000, when Bush prevailed over Gore after a court challenge which declared Bush to be the winner in Florida by just a handful of votes, with Florida’s electoral votes needed by each candidate to declare victory. Prof. Norpoth’s model predicts a 91% chance that Pres. Trump wins re-election, and gives him 362 electoral votes in the process. In playing around with an interactive electoral map, the way I get Pres. Trump to 362 electoral votes would put only the following states in Biden’s column: Washington, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, and one vote from Maine. That would mean that Trump would win the following states that are right now considered to be Democrat or toss-ups: Oregon, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska (all), Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine (3), Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. That would be a wipeout of a historical nature given all the predictions about the election up to this point. BUT that is how "wave" elections tend to happen. Undecideds do not generally break in relatively even numbers. Undecideds generally shift in large numbers to one candidate. States that are small leans become solid. States that are true tossups become comfortable, and states that were leaning towards the other candidate suddenly become battlegrounds and can be lost. Only truly safe states remain safe — but the margin of victory in those states declines. That is what happened in 1980 to Jimmy Carter. He faced a challenge from within his own party in the primaries which split the Democrats. Carter was unpopular with a portion of the party, and even the portion that backed him was unenthusiastic. Posted by: Besoeker 2020-09-09 |
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