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Researchers Predict COVID-19 Will Eventually Be 'No More Virulent Than the Common Cold'
 [PJ] New research predicts that, like the virus that caused the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918, COVID-19 will become another seasonal bug that we build efficient long-term immunity against. Researchers at Emory University and the Department of Biology and Center for Disease Dynamics at Pennsylvania State University published their findings in Science. It provides a hopeful outlook for the course of the pandemic, especially for young, healthy individuals who have been infected:We are currently faced with the question of how the CoV-2 severity may change in the years ahead. Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold.Unlike some viruses that cause severe illness in children, COVID-19 does not. Children, especially those under the age of 10, seem to tolerate the infection, exhibiting only mild symptoms. They also don’t appear to be drivers of disease transmission. The researchers evaluated scenarios for continuing vaccination when the virus falls below pandemic levels because of this pattern. Even for the rollout, they propose: Posted by: Besoeker 2021-01-24 |
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