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Will China get embroiled in the graveyard of empires?
[9Dashline] Afghanistan is a complex geopolitical playground and remains one of the world's fiercest battlegrounds. After the recent withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban immediately began claiming territory in various parts of the country. They now control more than 85 per cent of the country. The Afghan government may be overthrown in the next few months due to the poor preparation of the country’s security forces. Against this backdrop, the question arises whether China may be the next great power to get embroiled in the ‘graveyard of empires’.Great powers have always tried and failed to turn Afghanistan into a hotbed for their geopolitical ambitions. America is the latest superpower to suffer a catastrophic defeat in the country after two decades of unsuccessful occupation and nation-building. Washington's poor performance in delivering major energy, infrastructure, and connectivity projects has been one of its biggest failures over the past twenty years. Meanwhile, Beijing is carefully preparing to fill the void left by the US. CHINA’S POSITION IN AFGHANISTAN China is pursuing three main objectives in Afghanistan: avoiding a further expansion of the conflict and all-out civil war, promoting intra-Afghan negotiations, and preventing the rise of terrorist forces and activities. In this respect, China is relying on intensified relations with Russia (the Dragonbear), Iran, and Pakistan. Afghanistan is geostrategically located in a hotspot linking the Middle East, Central and South Asia, and Europe. China views the country as a major geopolitical puzzle piece between Pakistan and Iran, both of which have already deepened their ties with Beijing under the Belt and Road (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridors (CPEC) initiatives. In this context, some specific strategic projects in Taxkorgan, Wakhan and Gwadar are of immense importance. The construction of Taxkorgan Airport on the Pamir Plateau in the northwestern Uighur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang is a significant long-term investment, as Taxkorgan is "China's only county-level city bordering three countries — Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan". China and Afghanistan share an 80-km border with the Wakhjir Pass, which is the only potentially navigable pass. However, there is no road connection to the pass on the Afghan side. A potential investment would be to create a direct link to Afghanistan through Wakhan and Little Pamir as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, thus revitalising the Silk Road in Afghanistan through the Wakhan Corridor. Perhaps that is exactly why the US is pulling out now — the move could possibly become an American trap if China enters the Afghan quagmire and fails. A road project connecting Bozai Gonbad with the Wakhjir Pass is currently in the implementation phase and is being financed by the Afghan government without any Chinese involvement. Whoever is in charge in Afghanistan will soon have to decide whether to reconnect the country with China by building a 50 km highway, a project estimated to be worth at least 5 million dollars. The realisation of the transit corridor contains potential risks and challenges for China. Beijing considers the Wakhan a potential infiltration route for residents in Afghanistan, who vow to conduct terror activities in Xinjiang. Chinese interest in a direct connection to Afghanistan may grow with the changing situation on the ground as Beijing is seeking to gain a foothold in Afghanistan through the BRI with USD 62 billion in investments following the US withdrawal from the war-torn country. The CPEC consists mainly of projects involving highways, railroads and energy pipelines between Pakistan and China; the port of Gwadar is a key strategic asset, which enables Beijing's power projection into the Indian Ocean. Beijing could include Afghanistan in CPEC to provide economic incentives through a direct land connection with Pakistan. Concrete projects can be developed under the “Digital Silk Road, the Sino-Afghanistan Special Railway Transportation Project, the Five Nations Railway Project, and a Kabul–Urumqi air corridor”. Currently, China is Afghanistan’s second-largest trading partner (USD 1.19 billion), but it can significantly increase its trade volume through its direct land connection with Pakistan. Talks on the construction of a main road between Afghanistan and the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar indicate this may be the first major project within CPEC in the near future.
Posted by: 3dc 2021-07-30 |
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