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Evergrande: China's fragile housing giant
This torpedo has been headed toward the SS Xi for a while now but has just been spotted by the financial press. All hands to the pumps![Yahoo] Chinese housing giant Evergrande is one of the country's largest and most indebted private conglomerates, teetering on the brink of bankruptcy after years of rapid growth and a buying spree. Crippled with debt, the firm's Hong Kong-listed shares have collapsed this year on mounting fears for its financial health. Any possible bankruptcy of the group -- which claims to employ 200,000 people and indirectly generate 3.8 million jobs in China -- would have major repercussions on the country's economy, and possibly the world. I have no idea, but that statement seems plausible. The overall question is how stable the CCP economy is, and the follow-on question is whether domestic economic problems will make Xi more adventurous in foreign affairs. Nothing like a good war to distract the masses. Evergrande has increased acquisitions in recent years, taking advantage of the frenzy in real estate. The group said this week its total liabilities had swelled to 1.97 trillion yuan ($305 billion) and warned of "risks of defaults on borrowings". Any bankruptcy would have major repercussions on the world's number-two economy. Meanwhile, under new rules, Evergrande can no longer sell any property until it has formally finished building it -- ending a practice of pre-sales that the group has largely used to finance itself and keep its activities afloat. However, analysts believe which is the financial press equivalent of "experts tell CNN" that regardless of the group's troubles, there is a slim chance that Beijing would allow such a behemoth to go to the wall-- instead pushing it to drive down debt and applying pressure for it to reduce its exposure. Beijing "will not let Evergrande go bankrupt", say analysts at US-based SinoInsider, believing it would have "a huge impact on the regime" and its stability. We've had the "Bernanke Put", now we're going to have the "Xi Put". Of course, Bernanke never actually had anyone shot. Posted by: Matt 2021-09-09 |
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