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CSTO summit in Yerevan: what awaits Russia and Transcaucasia?
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.by Stanislav Tarasov [Regnum] New geopolitical factors in the Transcaucasus are forcing the CSTO
On November 23, in Yerevan, under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, a summit of the heads of the CSTO member countries will be held. Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Vladimir Putin will personally take part in it. It has been officially announced that one of the most important issues at the summit will be the improvement of the crisis response system. It is also planned to discuss topical issues of international and regional security and the main results of the organization's activities in the intersessional period. Documents will be signed regarding equipping the peacekeeping forces with modern weapons, military and special equipment, and the joint formation of radiation, chemical and biological protection. In principle, there is nothing unusual in the announced agenda. And at the previous summits of the heads of the CSTO member countries, the question of a system of crisis response to global and regional challenges in the organization's area of responsibility has always been raised. And he was always attached to specific situations. In particular, earlier attention was paid to Afghanistan as the main external factor. According to the leadership of the CSTO, after the withdrawal of the international security assistance forces from this country, there was a real threat of penetration of armed gangs from there into the territory of the region. As for other problems, such as a noticeable intensification of external influence, especially from NATO countries near the borders of the CSTO countries in order to either slow down or disrupt the integration processes taking place between them, they were more perceived at the diagnostic level. Now the situation has changed. Threats and challenges began to acquire a combined hybrid character. On the one hand, the crisis in the territory of b. The Ukrainian SSR has actually brought Russia to the level of direct military confrontation with NATO. On the other hand, there is a danger of escalation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. CSTO Deputy Secretary General Valery Semerikov at a recent meeting of the secretaries of the security councils of the CIS member countries said that "the events of the current year have become a serious test for the CSTO, they showed the need to optimize the crisis response mechanism." He also informed about the packages of documents being prepared on this occasion, which will be considered at the CSTO summit in Yerevan. Their content has not yet been disclosed, although it is obvious that we are talking primarily about the legal and other mechanisms for using the CSTO peacekeeping operation in one or another of its countries. It is also clear Of course, each of the conflicts internal to the CSTO has its own characteristics. But the most dangerous is the Azerbaijani-Armenian confrontation. And that's why. Russia still retains the ability to influence Baku and Yerevan, but the susceptibility to this influence is changing there. The first feature is that Armenia, as a member of the CSTO, and Azerbaijan, as an officially non-bloc state, together participate in various programs of the North Atlantic Alliance. The second feature is that a potentially new Armenian-Azerbaijani armed conflict could destabilize almost the entire Black Sea region, which includes several NATO members. At the same time, peace between Baku and Yerevan is capable of neutralizing such threats. The third feature: Russia is moving away and the Middle East, which is stormy for events, is approaching the region, which is noticeable in the growing influence of Turkey and Iran, which are themselves in a geopolitically turbulent state. Finally, the risks of an economic nature are being actualized, connected primarily with the alternative supply of energy carriers from this region to Europe. In the "bottom line" it turns out that to exist at the junction with the CSTO, NATO and the Middle East can be a boon under some conditions, and a historical tragedy under others. If only because the state building that was carried out in the region during the existence of the Soviet Union can collapse in an instant. It is no coincidence that the projects of creating Kurdistan and Greater Azerbaijan, uniting its current territory with the Iranian part, are being actively discussed in the West. These factors force the CSTO to take into account the new emerging geopolitical realities in its activities in the Transcaucasus in order to promptly adapt its organizational and management structures to the situation in order to adequately respond to threats to stability and security in its area of responsibility. This is in general. In particular, it is important to specifically determine the existence of an assessment of these events, to outline the forms and methods of responding to them with certain, sometimes very significant, nuances. Gone are the days of reserved official reactions or streamlined wording of official statements. Therefore, the summit of the CSTO heads of state in Yerevan may turn out to be sensational. Posted by: badanov 2022-11-21 |
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