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Strategy Page Annual Wars Summary for 2022
Key highlights for countries of interest to us here at Rantburg. Go to the link to read the whole thing, and as always poke around the site to see what else they’ve been looking at. This is our annual summary of current war zones and an overview of where it is all heading. After this overview there is the alphabetical list of the war zones and a quick summary of how the local mayhem has been proceeding. Since we have been covering this sort of thing for over twenty years now there are many war zones that have gone quiet, we left most of those in summary, with a note that those wars had gone dormant, and maybe extinct. Afghanistan: after the Taliban took over, foreign aid ceased. Neighbours expect it to collapse within a few years, leaving a narco-state controlled by Pashtuns and the Pakistan military surrounded by a collection of tribes. Pakistan: The combination of pet jihadi groups, corruption, and military control continues to generate lots of problems, compounded by economic problems. Iran: Mullahcracy under serious threat between protests, ethnic unrest, and failing economy. Yet Mullahs spend freely meddling in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, and working toward nuclear bomb. Iraq: ISIS still a problem in north and west of country. Iran controls 100,000 PMF militiamen, but 2021 election reduced Irqn’s influence. Israel: Good: Arab allies against Iran. Bad: Iran cyber war. Palestinians have annoyed everyone, but still rewarded for pretending to negotiate for peace. Kurds: Strife continues with Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Iran, as well as internal feuds. Nigeria: Tribal violence (esp. Fulani vs Christian farmers) now responsible for more deaths than jihadis, who have become mostly bandits. Corrupt politicians and in the army being reduced, but still problematic. Somalia: Al Shabaab still the major criminal organization in parts of the country, but with less foreign aid, it’s less profitable, and the Somalis are becoming more serious about actually governing themselves. Turkey: President the neo-Ottoman Sultan Recep Tayip Erdogan I “the much beloved” is increasingly causing mischief beyond Turkey’s borders, resulting in economic and diplomatic damage at home. Next elections this year, for what that’ll be worth. Yemen: Houthis are losing, but even with reduced Iranian support refuse to admit it. Among the 2/3rds of the population that is Sunni, some tribes still support Al Qaeda and ISIS, others would like to split up the country again. POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS: Various places where the local situation is warming up and might turn into a war. Like Myanmar, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Central Asia or Mexico. Previous items are still available in our archives. [RELATIVELY] QUIET: Algeria: Islamic terrorism has declined sharply. Balkans: Some Islamic terrorist activity, but concern is increasing number of Saudi-built mosques and schools Central Asia: Quiet at home — wannabe jihadis travel to interesting hotspots, where they either died or got over it and moved elsewhere. Chad: Quiet versus 2010, sending peacekeepers to help against Boko Haram/ISWAP in Nigeria. Congo: The eastern border continues to be problematic — tribal and political militias and bandits. In the Central African Republic years of chaos have evolved into Moslems vs Christians and others until the Wagner Group fixed it, Ethiopia: Civil war quieted. India: Largely at peace. Indonesia: Government counterterrorism efforts containing jihadis. Libya: The GNA supported by Turkey with Syrian troops in Tripoli and Misrata vs the LNA in the rest of the country supported by Russia, Egypt, the UAE, etc. Mali: Wagner Group seems to be bringing the situation under control. Philippines: Jihadis and Communist threats reduced, with Marcos, Jr. continuing Duerte’s policies. Sudan: Both Sudan and South Sudan have calmed down. Syria: Assad chose Russia, the Arab League, and even Israel over Iran, though Turkey is still hunting Kurds. Iran is constrained due problems at home. Thailand: Moslem separatists in the south have lost popular support. Posted by: trailing wife 2023-01-15 |
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