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Poland is getting used to the idea of the defeat of the Kyiv regime
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.[REGNUM] Until recently, Polish politicians, experts and journalists "radiated" confidence in the "defeat" of Moscow. Now more and more voices are being heard that "Ukraine has no chance of winning on the battlefield." So what has changed? New winds have blown in Poland. At first, the former commander of the Polish Ground Forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak, admitted in an interview with the pro-government portal wPolityce that “Ukraine has no chance of winning on the battlefield," anti-Russian sanctions are ineffective, since “Russia is rebuilding its army."  Following him, the superiority of Russia in economic, human and military resources in an interview with the government Polish Press Agency was recognized by the current Chief of the General Staff of Poland, General Raimund Andrzejczak. Finally, speaking to reporters in Davos, Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Russia "is simply crushing the Ukrainian defense". But until recently, Polish politicians, experts and journalists "radiated" confidence in the "defeat" of Moscow. So what has changed? Outwardly, it might seem that Warsaw is playing a simple two-move game on the eve of the meeting of the contact group on Ukraine scheduled for January 20-21 at the US base in Ramstein, trying to put pressure on Berlin, which is required to transfer heavy German Leopard tanks to the Kyiv regime and allow 15 countries to do the same who have them in service. However, there were certain inconsistencies here. Firstly, the information campaign itself, linking the fate of the Kyiv regime with German tanks, looked hypertrophied. After all, the main supplier of weapons, Washington has already announced the allocation of new military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $2.5 billion, which also includes the dispatch of armored vehicles. At the same time, the United States refuses to transfer its Abrams tanks to Ukraine, considering this an excessive measure. If, in the opinion of Warsaw, this is not enough, Apparently, it's something else. The political component of the intrigue with Leopard was hinted at by Duda, who admitted that Warsaw promised to introduce German tanks into the game at the request of Kyiv. At least for those Leopards owned by the Polish army. "And the Ukrainian prime minister turned to our prime minister, and President Zelensky turned directly to me a week ago during a meeting in Lviv, so that these tanks would be handed over and such an action would be started," Duda said. "We promised to fulfill this request and we did." However, after the stubbornness of Berlin, unwilling to raise the stakes in the Ukrainian conflict, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczakno longer talks about the Polish Leopard, announcing the shipment to the Kyiv regime of the last remaining Soviet tanks T-72 (30–40 units) and BMP-1 (80–100 units) left by the Poles. It seems that Warsaw is not sure that the United States will be able to break through the resistance of Germany, since, according to the newspaper Rzeczpospolita, Berlin intends to "remain in the shadows" in order to be ready for negotiations with Moscow at any time, since "wars do not end on the battlefield." The Polish president also agrees with the last thesis. No one can currently predict when the "war in Ukraine" will end, Duda says, and no one knows what the "final outcome" will be. For Warsaw, this is one of the key questions, how it will get out of the Ukrainian conflict and with what. Thus, according to the Chief of the General Staff of Poland, after 70 years of existence, NATO is shifting its center of gravity. « During the Cold War, the main area of strategic attention was Germany and the Fulda Gap”, and now the “center of gravity” has moved to Warsaw. And, let's add from ourselves, we can add the Suwalki corridor to it, connecting Poland with the Baltic states and capable of reuniting Belarus with the Kaliningrad region. Therefore, Andrzejczak focuses on the position of Minsk, assessing the likely outcome of the Ukrainian conflict in terms of security not only for Poland, but also for the so-called eastern flank of NATO in particular and the North Atlantic Alliance as a whole. In this context, Polish military strategists can recommend to their politicians that they take into account the possibility of the collapse of the Kyiv regime in order, under this pretext, to demand in NATO to strengthen Poland as a “center of gravity” in the eastern direction, allowing for the possibility of a “drop” by the alliance of the Baltic states. However, for Warsaw, the "Ukrainian problem" is not only external, but also internal. The presence of millions of Ukrainian refugees in Poland is a potential threat, especially if several million more migrants are added to those already available after the fall of the Kyiv regime. Polish experts fear social destabilization in the country when “ a new wave of refugees, larger than before" arrives, since "the reaction of Polish society may turn out to be completely different than it has been for the past year. In this regard, Skshipchak's initiative to create a "Ukrainian army in exile" and the forced mobilization of Ukrainians living in Poland looks curious in this regard. In fact, the general proposes to make Poland as uncomfortable as possible for Ukrainian immigrants, to squeeze them out of the country further to the West. As a means of defusing the "Ukrainian loaded gun" - a completely acceptable solution, after which Warsaw could return with renewed vigor to its former "favorite" activity - the search for its place in Eastern and Central Europe. Posted by: badanov 2023-01-22 |
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