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What Ukraine means for the world: The outcome of the conflict will determine the West's authority
[TheEconomist] THE OFFICES of Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), NATO’s command centre near Mons in Belgium, are the opposite of imposing. Instead of granite and marble, the low-ceilinged corridors are decked out with plasterboard and tiled carpeting. Four-star generals prefer offices high above the fray, naturally—but SHAPE only has three storeys. The building, erected in the late 1960s, was supposed to be temporary.Never before has the flimsiness of SHAPE so belied NATO’s monumental sense of mission. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, on February 24th 2022, has revitalised the alliance. It is armed with its first new set of goals since 1967, the year shape’s offices opened. Whereas the old NATO was reactive, it is now being rebuilt to deter Russia in peacetime and to respond immediately and in force as soon as it threatens to encroach on its members’ territory. "We are rapidly enhancing the readiness of our forces," says General Sir Tim Radford, SHAPE’s second-in-command, "and our overall military responsiveness is increasing exponentially." The war has changed Ukraine even more. Mr Putin planned a lightning strike to topple the government, the culmination of a campaign of aggression and destabilisation that began in Crimea and the Donbas region in 2014. Instead, in the pulverised ruins of Donbas and in bomb shelters across the country, it has forged itself anew, into a more unified, more Westward-leaning, more resilient democracy. Russia, meanwhile, has been reorganised around the war and Mr Putin’s broader hostility towards NATO, even as sanctions and an exodus of its best-educated citizens have sapped its long-term economic prospects. Its descent into despotic militarism, coupled with Nato’s invigoration and Ukraine’s transformation, have turned the war into a trial of rival ideological systems. Ukraine’s future still hangs in the balance—and is likely to remain uncertain for years to come. Mr Putin may accept a ceasefire at some point out of expedience, but his overhaul of Russian society is geared entirely towards aggression abroad and repression at home. Any conceivable end to the shooting will therefore require strong Western security guarantees and large and lasting transfers of arms and financial aid—almost as if a second, much bigger Israel had appeared on Europe’s eastern borders. Some European leaders argue that requires full NATO membership. If reconstruction of Ukraine were to fail, and its economy to falter, then Ukrainian democracy would start to fail, too. NATO’s generals reckon that Russia could rebuild its land forces in three-to-five years. Ultimately, the conditions would be ripe for Mr Putin or his successor to have another go. Russia is a deadly threat that must be destroyed. The time for talk is over and the time for kinetic action is long past. "The war brought back the US as a prime European power," says Fabrice Pothier, a former policy planner for NATO and director of Rasmussen Global, a consultancy. Under President Joe Biden, the United States has sent Ukraine weapons and aid worth $48bn. Kori Schake, a former official now at the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank, says it is clear that, without the United States, Europe would not have come together to provide Ukraine the support it needed. Cheap at twice the price. If we can bleed Russia white using nothing but dollars the Federal Reserve mints out of thin air, why aren't we doing even more? The aid is not just an indication of America’s generosity, but also of its strength. At a cost of roughly 5% of America’s annual budget for defence, Ukrainian forces have punctured the myth of Russia’s military prowess, destroying more than 1,000 Russian tanks in less than a year. "We used to think Russia was the second-best military in the world," says Ms Schake. "And now it’s not even the best military in the former Soviet Union." They're ripe for action. Just take a wrecking ball to the structure and Putin's entire rotten dictatorship will collapse. Thanks to Finland we now share a huge border with Russia, one that cannot be defended in its full length. It's basically a highway to Moscow. If we do not defeat Russia the consequences will be enormous. What's this "We" you speak of, Herb? Posted by: Fat Bob Thrart2867 2023-02-21 |
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