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Russia, Ukraine in Black Sea Stalemate a Year Into Russo-Ukraine Conflict
By Heather Mongilio[USNI] When Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, the Black Sea was suddenly in the spotlight. The Black Sea, which borders Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, was a key naval area for both Russia, which has a fleet dedicated to the area, and to Ukraine, in addition to a path for grain exports from Ukraine. Within days of the invasion, Turkey closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships, effectively closing off the Black Sea to any country that did not border it. The last U.S. warship left in December 2021. Russia was left with the ships it had flowed into the region to join its existing Black Sea Fleet. There was some speculation that Russia could prepare an amphibious assault on Ukraine with the goal of taking over the port city of Odesa. But the amphibious assault did not materialize. Nor did any other large naval maneuvers. For the most part, the Black Sea has played a commercial role in the conflict, affecting grain exports from Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are in a stalemate when it comes to the Black Sea, similar to that of the land fight, said Mark Cancian, a senior advisor for the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ International Security Program. Early on, Russia launched naval attacks, taking Snake Island from the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians responded, eventually recovering the island and sinking the guided-missile cruiser RTS Moskva (121). But since then, there has been little maritime activity. Russia was able to launch a small amphibious assault on Mariupol, a smaller port city, which saw heavy fighting early in the war. However, a larger assault on Odesa was not likely. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has smaller amphibious ships, limiting how the troops and equipment they are able to carry, Cancian said. While [WHO???] speculated an amphibious assault on Odesa was imminent, Russia didn’t indicate it planned to launch one, Cancian said. “You could say that they were deterred from doing raids, but the big amphibious operations were just never within the military capability, and there’s no indication that they thought about it either,” he said. “It’s not the Russian style.” Brad Martin, director of Institute for Supply Chain Security with the RAND Corporation, said he had expected more activity around the Black Sea. Read the rest at the link Posted by: badanov 2023-02-25 |
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