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Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
[Telegraph] Sending waves of soldiers onto the battlefield, compounded by emigration, will hasten Russia's birth rate declineHundreds of thousands of working age Russians have left the country or died on the battlefield since Putin declared war on Ukraine. Ukraine says its soldiers have killed more than 100,000 Russians, while the Kremlin puts it closer to 10,000. The numbers may be disputed, but the trends are clear: Russia is facing a demographic time bomb that will make it harder to wage war and, in the long run, keep its ailing economy going. Sending waves of young men onto the battlefield, compounded by emigration, will result in tens of thousands of fewer births and hasten an already long-term decline in birth rates. Experts believe Russia may see fewer than 1.2 million births this year if military operations continue in the coming months. This would be the lowest in modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow. A separate estimate by Mikhail Denisenko, director of the Institute of Demography in Moscow, suggests a year of military service for the 300,000 men mobilised into the army last September and October will lead to 25,000 fewer births. As well as dying soldiers, talented Russians have been fleeing the country in their droves. Thousands of Russian women have travelled abroad to give birth. Argentina has seen a surge in births due to visa-free entry for Russians, whose children automatically acquire citizenship, making it easier for their parents to get it too. An Argentine passport allows holders to enter 171 countries visa-free, compared to 87 for Russians. Others have escaped via Kazakhstan, where many have set up bank accounts and moved on. Turkey, Georgia and Armenia have also seen a huge influx of Russians, while US customs and border protection data show more than 20,000 Russians have tried to enter the US since last October via the Mexican border. Many Ukrainians - sometimes forcibly - have also moved to Russia over the course of the war, with migration statistics suggesting the overall number decline in the population may be modest. But while young Russians have been moving out, it's mainly older citizens moving in, according to Raksha, who recently fled Moscow himself. "On the face of it, things are not that bad, because compared with the 800,000 or so people who have left the country fleeing from the war, Russia has also taken in around one million Ukrainians. But the age, sex and educational structure of those who emigrated and those who immigrated are completely different. "So mostly young, educated, high-earning men left the country and mostly women with children and elderly people came to the country as refugees from the war. "While overall migration could be positive, we don't know by how much. But we do know that the economic impact will be very negative because of the number of young people who have left, and continue for decades to come." A country that was already facing huge challenges is now staring into a demographic abyss. Lots more. Posted by: Ebbains Threrenter5475 2023-02-27 |
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