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Why UAV attacks have become more frequent at night and is it related to the counteroffensive
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.[VESTI] On the night of May 1, Russia, after a conditional pause of several weeks, again subjected Ukrainian territory to massive shelling, which almost led to a tragedy in the Kremlin itself. Important foreign policy events became the background for this. The causes and background of the drone activation were analyzed by Vesti.ua. DRONE ATTACK In the last days of April 2023, the Russian side, after a conditional period of reduced combat activity, resumed massive shelling of Ukraine. On the night of April 28, 2023, several large cities of Ukraine (including Dnipro, Kiev, Poltava, Kremenchug) were shelled. As a result, explosions were heard in Kyiv, the local power grid and road surface were damaged, and in Uman (Cherkasy region), an enemy cruise missile hit a residential high-rise building. One entrance collapsed, according to the National Police and the State Emergency Service, 23 people died, 6 of them were children. In Dnipro, a woman and her 3-year-old child became victims of enemy ammunition getting into a private house. According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian side fired 23 cruise missiles on the territory of Ukraine (21 were shot down, 11 of them over Kiev) and 2 UAVs (both were shot down). Further, the attacks continued with increasing intensity: on the night of May 1 - 18 cruise missiles (15 were shot down), more than 25 civilians were injured in Pavlograd, Dnepropetrovsk region. There was a night shelling of Kiev on May 1. According to the Kiev city military administration , the air raid lasted more than 3 hours, the enemy attacked the capital from strategic aircraft with drones and cruise missiles at the same time. On the afternoon of May 2 , the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation was shelled, local authorities blamed the Ukrainian side, but on the night of May 2-3, 28 Shahed-type UAVs were attacked on the territory of Ukraine, 21 were shot down, but the enemy managed to damage the oil depot in Kropyvnytskyi. During the day, shelling continued in Kherson: the railway station, supermarkets and other civilian facilities, killing 21 civilians. In Kyiv and the Kyiv region, local residents noticed multiple fragments of missiles shot down by air defense. On the night of May 4, the enemy continued shelling Ukrainian territory. In particular, in Kiev, 10 residential buildings and road surfaces were damaged by debris. But the attention of the whole world is now drawn to just one attack. FIREWORKS OVER THE KREMLIN On the afternoon of May 3, 2023, the Russian side announced a night UAV attack on the Kremlin (Moscow). According to the press service of the President of the Russian Federation , the Kremlin was attacked by two UAVs, as a result of the work of air defense, they were disabled. The explosion of one of them and the scattering of fragments over the Senate Palace of the Kremlin did not cause any damage. Nevertheless, the press service of the President of Russia regarded the night event as a "terrorist attack" and an "assassination attempt" on Vladimir Putin. Also, according to the Russian side, the goal was to disrupt the May 9 parade on Red Square in Moscow. The Ukrainian side categorically denied involvement in this incident. “ We have no information about the so-called night attacks on the Kremlin, but, as President Zelensky has repeatedly stated, Ukraine directs all available forces and means to liberate its own territories, and not to attack others,” commented the press secretary of the President of Ukraine Sergey Nikiforov . Volodymyr Zelensky himself later added during a joint press conference with participants in the Nordic summit that Ukraine lacks weapons to defend its territory, “so we don’t use them elsewhere.” However, there was a sharp reaction in Russian political circles, because the Kremlin was attacked from the air for the first time in 80 years. The global community is more reserved. The Chinese Foreign Ministry warned the parties against any actions that could aggravate the situation. US presidential spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the United States does not encourage or provide opportunities to allow Ukraine to strike outside its borders. “We have made this very clear,” she stressed. For its part, CNN, citing a senior official, said that the American side had not received warnings from the Ukrainian side about the attack and was gathering information. This position was indirectly confirmed by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken : “I perceive everything that comes from the Kremlin with great caution.” And there is a reason: European Commission Vice President Josep Borrell, citing comments by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about exclusively defending its territory, urged Russia not to use the incident as an excuse to escalate the war: “ We are concerned that this could be used to justify a more massive conscription (on military service), as well as an increase in attacks on Ukraine .” STAGED BEFORE THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken hinted, and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that the drone attack on the Kremlin could have been staged. “ Russia likely orchestrated this attack in an attempt to get the war across to a Russian domestic audience and create the conditions for broader social mobilization,” ISW analysts said. But this attack cannot be considered in isolation from others, as a result of which Ukrainian civilians are killed and civilian infrastructure facilities on the territory of Ukraine are damaged. The retaliatory attacks of our side are aimed at military installations. But the Ukrainian side has the advantage that it is in the Armed Forces of Ukraine that the first three companies of shock drones in the world were formed, the expert of the public movement “All Together!” emphasized Evgeny Savisko. Therefore, the activation of the enemy, and precisely in terms of the wider use of drones, is quite logical. The desynchronization is also noticeable: if the Ukrainian side outlines strategic goals and, as a rule, does not cause damage to the civilian population and non-military objects, aiming at the military, then the Russian side, on the contrary, seeks to demoralize the civilian population. In terms of resonance and media coverage, Ukraine wins: with the extensive defeat of oil storage facilities in Sevastopol and Taman, significant material losses of the enemy, not a single victim among the civilian population, Yevgeny Savisko notes. Perhaps this is the reason for the staged drone attack on the Kremlin. As the political strategist and reputation management specialist Alexander Kondratenko believes , the resonance of the event is addressed to the internal Russian viewer: “I carefully watched the video and I have something to compare with, relatively speaking, with the same “Geraniums” that fly at us. The drone (above the Kremlin) did not even crash into the building, it was blown up near, there was no damage. But what about the air defense systems that they dragged onto the roofs of buildings? It seems to me that this is just a production with the aim of activating anti-Ukrainian sentiments in the Russian Federation.” It was a staging by the Russian side with a 99.9% probability, look at the symbolism: they hit the tower where the president lives, during the attack the flagpole with the flag of Russia fell down, political scientist Alexander Kondratyuk noted. "This is a provocation from their (Russians) side, to show that we (Russians) should unite, they hit on the shrines-staples. He hit the tower where the president lives, during the attack the flagpole was damaged and the flag of Russia fell down. In my opinion, this will have the opposite effect: even Putin is in danger, where the vaunted air defense and army are the only pride in which billions have been invested ," the expert emphasized. SHELLING OF DESPERATION And if we talk about the intensification of shelling by drones of Ukraine, then they (the Russians) are excited by the planned offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and massive drone attacks, they think that they will slow it down or cancel it, Alexander Kondratyuk names the reason for the activation of the enemy. "They hit civilian targets with drones or just randomly, 80% of the drones go down. This is a senseless act of desperation from the fact that they do not know what to do and take revenge on the civilian population, because in the Russian Federation it is always the extreme - the civilian population. It is clear that the enemy wants to identify and deplete our air defense, but, in my opinion, there is another goal - to embitter and push to protest, to bring the civilian population to the streets," the expert said. Instead of a protest by Ukrainian citizens, the Russian Federation will receive a counterattack by the Ukrainian military, military expert Oleg Starikov is convinced . According to him, the activation of drone attacks is a preparatory phase of the counteroffensive, with a strong informational component. "In a modern war, 60-70% depends on the results of the information war: attacks on logistics, on supply chains, and then everything is twisted on the information component, “everything is lost, you are surrounded," he explained. THE “GRAIN DEAL” GETS WET Active drone attacks and an attack on the Kremlin coincided with the negotiations on the “grain deal”. In particular, on May 3, the UN Secretary General said that he expects Russia's reaction to the improved grain initiative. The Kremlin officially responded - " reasons for optimism are very modest." Meanwhile, on May 5, negotiations between the delegations of Ukraine, Turkey and Russia (at the level of deputy defense ministers) are to be held in Turkey, the term of the current deal expires on May 18. Earlier, the Russian Federation withdrew from the “grain deal” for a while and, according to some sources, is increasing its military presence in the Black Sea. Could there be a connection between the ups and downs of negotiations on a new “grain deal” and the intensification of drone strikes? Experts interviewed by Vesti.ua refute this connection. In particular, Oleksandr Kondratyuk believes that the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the “grain deal” will do little – it will be continued under the auspices of the UN and Turkey, because the world needs Ukrainian food. Posted by: badanov 2023-05-06 |
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