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Bank Bubble Crisis
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] Every time Americans are told that everything is fine, it only seems to get worse. The current banking crisis was supposed to "fade away" after the collapse of the Silicon Valley banks and Signature Bank, writes Economiccollapseblog.
That did not happen. The reassurance then was that everything would "end" with the collapse of First Republic. The bank collapsed, but the crisis is not going to subside.
By now, most of you already know what is happening with the shares of PacWest, Western Alliance, First Horizon and countless other regional banks. in all my years i have never seen banking stocks fall so fast.If this avalanche continues to gain momentum, pretty soon we will have to stop talking about "banking crisis" and start talking about "banking apocalypse".CNN summed up the current state of affairs
better than anyone else...
A summary of how things are going in the banking crisis:
- Fed: “The banks are all right.”
- Treasury: “The banks are all right.”
- Banks: "We're fine."
- Wall Street: "Sell everything, the banks are on fire!"
On Thursday, PacWest released a carefully worded statement intended to reassure investors… The point was to keep working to stabilize the situation.
However, the announcement triggered a backlash and a massive wave of panic that sent the bank's shares down more than 50%.
On Thursday morning, the debacle at the regional banks picked up again, with shares of several banks suffering significant losses.
- PacWest sank 50.6%;
- Shares of Western Alliance fell by 38%;
- A First Horizon fell by 37%;
The headlines are now full of these three names, although there are still many institutions that are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.
A recent study showed that another 186 banks are at risk of bankruptcy. Even if only half of the depositors are uninsured, who could lose part of their deposits in the event of a bank failure, they will withdraw their funds.
So what's the bottom line?
Things were already bad, and now that the Fed has decided to raise interest rates again, things are about to get even worse.
At this stage, there are very few truly safe banks. Depositors continue to withdraw money from the system. The bonds held by these banks continue to lose value, and more and more loans become bad every day.
This banking crisis is not only far from over, but it is just beginning.
Banking is a game of trust. At this rate, no regional bank will be able to survive bad news or misleading data as stock prices inevitably follow and insured and uninsured deposits are withdrawn.
Bill Ekman has warned that our entire regional banking system is "at risk" because rapid rate hikes have led to assets depreciating and depleting deposits. The zeroing of shareholders and bondholders has significantly increased the cost of capital of banks, and large losses are looming.
He's basically right, with one exception.
Even if all deposits in the system are fully insured to the maximum, many people will still withdraw their money.
As ZeroHedge aptly pointed out, many wealthy people move funds from checking accounts that bring in almost nothing to money market funds that pay about 5%.
Not necessarily only the wealthy, but anyone who has savings not needed for the next six months and the time and energy to chase larger returns. | Sure, the Fed could bail out the banks by cutting interest rates, but that won't happen any time soon.
So get ready for new bank falls.
Before the collapse of the First Republic, Gallup conducted a survey in which Americans were asked if they were concerned about the fate of their money in the US banking system.
It turned out that almost half of Americans are concerned about this problem. The American banking system is experiencing enormous difficulties. But the distrust of US residents in the banking system is just one of the elements of a broader social crisis.
The rest of 2023 is very worrying. However, what 2024 will bring is extremely more worrying.
https://secretra.com/economy/5820-na-grani-apokalipsisa-bankovskoj-industrii.html - zinc
Despite the Fed's claims that a delay in raising the debt ceiling in the coming weeks could spell disaster, it is unlikely that the ceiling will not be raised after the Biden administration's latest round of trading with the Republicans. Both sides understand that the US default will hit everyone, so mutual blackmail is used more to extract domestic political concessions than the desire of one of the parties to bring the matter to default and refuse to print unsecured dollars.
However, the general crisis of the hegemon adds an additional dimension to the ongoing cabal, as several more bubbles are ready to burst in the near future, which in fact gives rise to a certain intrigue regarding the stability of the American financial system and the Western neoliberal economy. It is unlikely that we will see any one-time collapse and the notorious."
Posted by: badanov 2023-05-09 |
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=666567 |
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