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Casting for the role of 'chief hawk'. Who aims for the chair of NATO Secretary General
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Mikail Zakharov

[REGNUM] US President Joe Biden played along with one of the likely candidates to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO Secretary General. The owner of the White House, hosting British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on June 8 , said that he admits the possibility of appointing the current British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace as the head of the alliance.

Actually, Sunak went to Washington with a request to Biden to support the British candidate. It’s another matter how “plus” this support for the US president will go to Wallace, who, by the way, confused Sunak’s position, calling him “Mr. President” (and during his visit to Britain he did not recognize the prime minister at all).

Stoltenberg, who has been in office since 2014, announced in February of this year that he would not renew his powers and would retire from September. Despite the declared adherence of the West to democratic procedures, the process of electing the head of the alliance remains hidden from the public eye. “This is the most non-transparent election of all elections,” a Foreign Policy source said on this occasion.

The increased speculation about which of the Western politicians could take the post of head of the most, perhaps, the most effective and aggressive military organization in the world, is quite understandable - Stoltenberg's replacement may be announced not in September, but at the Vilnius summit on July 11-12.

Theoretically, any of the 31 member countries of the alliance, for example, Iceland or North Macedonia, can propose its candidate. But it is obvious that the nomination of passing candidates is the task of influential powers: France, Great Britain or Germany, and Washington will play the first violin in making a “collegiate decision”.

LIST OF CANDIDATES (AND CANDIDATES)
The head of the British military department, Captain Ben Wallace (it was to this rank that the minister rose in the army, where he served until 2005), according to his “lobbyist”, Prime Minister Sunak, “is highly respected among his colleagues in the world, including given the role he plays in Ukraine".

Wallace can compete with another British candidate, a purely civilian, but better known, ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, known for his assertiveness and outrageousness. As head of government, Johnson planned to increase British defense spending by the end of the decade to 2.5% of GDP. If he continues to seek this not only from his native country, this line of behavior of the new secretary general - more money and more populism for the sake of NATO's popularity - may well suit Washington.

The media previously named two current prime ministers as potential candidates - the head of the government of the Netherlands Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, however, both Rutte and Sanchez denied the information that they allegedly apply for the post of NATO Secretary General. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis , about whom the press also wrote , is unlikely to become the new Secretary General. The current deputy secretary general of Stoltenberg, Mircea Geoana, is a Romanian and does not intend to leave his post, so it is unlikely that the two most senior NATO officials will be representatives of Romania.

The 21st century has made its additions: now many experts see a woman as the head of NATO, in full accordance with the principles of the policy of inclusiveness and diversity. Recently, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has been named as a likely candidate . However, she later denied rumors that she would take the post.

Among the possible candidates were often called the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the former head of EU diplomacy Federica Mogherini and Christia Freeland - the Canadian finance minister and - which is now also "in trend" - an ethnic Ukrainian. The latter has a good knowledge of Eastern European politics and history, persistent anti-Russian views, but Friedland noted that she already has two jobs (she is also the country's deputy prime minister).

As for Ursula von der Leyen, her achievements in the role of Minister of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany - in a post close to the tasks of the Secretary General of the military alliance - were not impressive. Judging by the publications of the German media, the existence of systematic corruption in the German Ministry of Defense and the shortage of weapons of the Bundeswehr are associated with it. Who knows, analysts believe, maybe the post will eventually belong to Federica Mogherini, previously known for her activity as the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

It is unlikely that the new head of NATO will be an American, since the post of supreme commander of NATO forces is usually reserved for the US representative.

Most likely, the new secretary general will not be a northern European - before the Norwegian Stoltenberg, NATO was headed by the Dane Anders Fogh Rasmussen . Not so many chances for immigrants from the Baltic countries and Poland. Of course, the intransigence towards Russia of another lady-pretender, Estonian Prime Minister Kai Kallas , who is also on the list of contenders, appeals to NATO "hawks", but more moderate Berlin and Paris may not suit her candidacy.

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE APPLICANT
Typically, NATO Secretaries General previously held the posts of heads of government or state, but there are no formal rules. Both the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the country - a member of the alliance can become Secretary General - it all depends on personal qualities and the "support group".

As Jamie Shea, a former NATO spokesman, noted in a Reuters commentary, the bloc's leaders are looking for a highly skilled politician and diplomat. “Keeping the alliance united, keeping everyone up to date at all times, being in touch with all allies to make sure you are solving their problems is an important part of the job,” Shi adds.

Of course, the package of requirements for the candidate includes support for Ukraine and complete loyalty to the organization. As political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky explained to IA Regnum , “If you look closely at the documents of the North Atlantic Alliance, the secretary general’s office performs technical functions. Another thing is that the factor of maximum obedience, maximum corporate loyalty for this person is important here. He must do what is required."

The US is seriously alarmed by the new coalition in the Indian Ocean
There are a lot of names of the alleged successors to Stoltenberg, but it is far from certain that one of those who are now tipped to be candidates for the post of Secretary General will become him. Rather, the flickering of names speaks of a tense "fight for the flag" between Washington, Brussels, European allies and their intra-NATO groups, experts say.

Political scientist Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute of Contemporary State Development, believes that the main thing for the leaders of the significant powers of the alliance will be the choice not so much between personalities, but between two types of leader.

Or the NATO Secretary General will be “a representative of some small country that does not have its own ideas about the further development of the bloc, behind whose back decisions will be made . Or "it will be some kind of independent politician who will pursue his own line and have his own idea of ​​​​how and what needs to be organized," Solonnikov told IA Regnum . In this regard, the expert believes, the alliance faces a difficult choice: to nominate an insignificant “talking head” for the post or take a risk by appointing an independent player.

THE LEADER MAY REMAIN THE SAME, BUT THE ALLIANCE IS IN DANGER OF CHANGE
It is possible that internal contradictions will prevent the bloc from finding a compromise, and then Stoltenberg will have to hold office for several more months. This, according to Reuters sources , many NATO member countries would like to avoid. In a month, an alliance summit will be held in Lithuania, and the bloc would like to demonstrate its unity, and not squabbles and disagreements. In addition, Stoltenberg has already extended his term of office three times. Back in September 2022, he was supposed to move to the post of head of the central bank of his native Norway, but after the start of the NWO, his mandate was extended.

On the other hand, the question outlined above remains whether the new secretary general will change the policy of the alliance. Drobnitsky is sure that the NATO bloc - in the past the main instrument of the Cold War in confrontation with the Soviet bloc - is waiting for a big transformation. According to the expert, the Atlantic bloc, whose mission will be to contain the new "Russian threat", will become an addition to other international military structures led by the United States.

The prototype of these new instruments of "American peace" is the association of the Anglo-Saxon countries AUKUS (within which, and not within the framework of NATO, there is cooperation in the development of hypersonic weapons), "pulling up" the Far Eastern allies - Japan and South Korea, proposals to India"to be friends against" China, etc. The role of the Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance in these transformation processes will be purely nominal, the interlocutor believes.

“It is clear that NATO in the form in which it exists now is not for long. The next Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance will be present during the de facto dismantling of the bloc and its replacement with various other formats, alliances and other forms. At the same time, he strenuously pretends that everything is developing in the right direction. NATO is waiting for big changes, but this will have nothing to do with the personality of the Secretary General,” Drobnitsky believes.


Posted by: badanov 2023-06-10
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=669400