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'Throw to the East'. German troops surround Russia
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Mikail Moshkin and Oleg Krivoshapov

[REGNUM] NATO leaders at the Vilnius summit on July 11-12 will approve the alliance's new defense plans, which will be the biggest changes in the last 40 years, the alliance's deputy secretary general, Romanian representative Mircea Geoana, announced on July 5.

The day before, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Colacu voiced one of his wishes for a change in the balance of power in Eastern Europe: Bucharest insists on the permanent presence of German troops in Romania. The head of the Romanian government stated this at a joint press conference with his German counterpart Olaf Scholz .

Ciolacu linked Bucharest's request to Berlin with the conflict in Ukraine: hostilities in the neighboring country seem to be prolonged, in Romania "they might have expected the conflict to end" with a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But, the prime minister added, "unfortunately ... public data does not give us much confidence in this."

Not so long ago, another Romanian citizen in the leadership of NATO, the official representative of the alliance, Oana Lungescu, said: by this year, NATO has doubled its military presence in Eastern Europe compared to 2021. From 5,000 troops united in four battle groups to 10,000 in eight groups deployed, including in Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and the same Romania, The Washington Post clarified Lungescu's words . But a separate issue is the interest that Russia's Eastern European neighbors have shown in hosting precisely the German military. The Romanians were not the first in this sense.

“WE, THE FRG, EXPRESSLY ACKNOWLEDGE OUR RESPONSIBILITY…”
On June 27, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced Berlin's intention to deploy 4,000 German soldiers in Lithuania on a permanent basis. Of course, at the request of Vilnius, back in June 2022, at the NATO summit in Madrid, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda signed a memorandum with Scholz on the participation of the Bundeswehr brigade in the “defense of Lithuania”. However, the specific plans voiced by Pistorius for a “throw to the east” and for the possible deployment of a brigade in Lithuania on a long-term basis came as a surprise to the German officer corps.

Be that as it may, when explaining his government's plans to ask the Germans to send troops, the Romanian Prime Minister Ciolacu referred precisely to the Lithuanian precedent. “I hope that together with the Chancellor (Scholz) we will be able to make decisions in this regard as soon as possible,” the Prime Minister stressed.

The expectations are understandable, as the German political scientist and publicist Vladimir Sergienko noted , Romania's desire to deploy the German military on its territory may indicate NATO's intention to open a "second front" of confrontation with Russia in Transnistria. Another interlocutor of IA Regnum , political scientist Alexander Sosnovsky , suggested that the Romanian authorities are afraid of major popular unrest, to suppress which they will need additional force in the person of the German military.

So far, the German military department says that there are no plans to deploy troops on a permanent basis in Romania. But it is obvious that in Bucharest and other Eastern European capitals they are counting: Berlin will act according to the principle proclaimed by Pistorius.

“We, the Federal Republic of Germany, expressly recognize our responsibility and our obligation as a member of NATO and the largest economy in Europe to stand up for the defense of the eastern flank,” the German defense minister was quoted as saying by the AP during his trip to Vilnius in June.

“It looks like the Iron Cross is ready to return to the East,” The American Conservative noted on this occasion , and wondered: “Will Germany return to its historical role as a counterweight to Russia on the continent?”.

GERMANY FORCED TO FORGET THE LESSONS OF HISTORY
“Everything is very simple, ” German political scientist Alexander Rahr commented to IA Regnum . - After February 24, 2022, both the United States and Eastern European countries began to put heavy pressure on Germany - the richest country within the European Union, in fact, the main ally of the States in Europe. The pressure was that Germany, if it wants to be a leader in the EU in the future, would take some kind of leadership in supporting Ukraine and in supporting the containment of Russia, which Olaf Scholz did.”

The chancellor acted with the support of the federal government and "wide circles of German elites," the expert notes.

Today, Germany's position regarding military operations in Ukraine is closer to the position of Poland and the Baltic countries than the line pursued by France and Italy, he points out. In this sense, Germany is indeed becoming the "leader of Eastern Europe."

The appearance in Poland of the Leopard tank maintenance enterprise, on the construction of which Berlin and Warsaw agreed in May, is also a very real prospect, the political scientist adds. “It was not without pressure from the United States, ” the expert states. “ And now they are already demanding that Germany send its troops to the Baltic states, to Romania.”

There is an expectation in German society that the said pressure will intensify, Rahr noted. The attitude of the opponents of the “strengthening of the eastern flank” was expressed by the head of the Berlin organization of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party Georg Padzerski : “Ex-Chancellor Schroeder is absolutely right in his criticism of Germany’s policy towards Russia,” the politician’s statement on the party website says, “Provocations, such as the deployment of Bundeswehr soldiers in the Baltic countries, is not just a policy that shows the forgetting of the lessons of history, they are also contrary to the interests of Germany.This does not mean that the policy of Russia and its leader should not be criticized, but criticism from a friendly country will be heard sooner than from an open enemy, Padzerski stressed.

Significantly, recent measurements have shown the growing popularity of Alternative for Germany, which opposes the confrontation with Moscow. As IA Regnum noted in early June , in the study of sociologists ARD "Deutschlandtrend", the level of popularity of AfD was 18%, thus reaching its historical maximum since September 2018. The sociological service Forsa sees it at 17%, and this is a record: according to the measurements of this institute, the party's rating has never risen above 16%.

Alternativa is consistently in second place behind the CDU-CSU (now in opposition) and ahead of the parties in the ruling coalition, including Scholz's Social Democrats. And the other day there was a precedent - the AfD nominee became mayor for the first time, having won elections in a small town in Saxony-Anhalt. Therefore, it is not surprising that the authorities of the federal republic are already moving towards a ban on the dangerous opposition force.

And the German elite itself is being purposefully pushed towards “moving eastward,” agrees a senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS named after V.I. Primakov Alexander Kamkin.

“Germany is still the locomotive of Europe, and not only economic,” said the expert IA Regnum. “The history of the twentieth century shows that the Germans, whatever one may say, are the most combat-ready nation in Western Europe.” In this sense, Scholz's promises to turn the Bundeswehr (which is now smaller in number, for example, the French army) into the most combat-ready non-nuclear force in Europe and the fresh statement of the chancellor are indicative. On July 5, speaking in the Bundestag, Scholz called the Ukrainian conflict a turning point that would force Germany to reconsider its security policy.

Kamkin points out that the decision to deploy a full-fledged Bundeswehr rapid reaction brigade in Lithuania “is being implemented as part of the defense against the mythical Russian threat, which is being whipped up by the leaders of the Baltic states, the media and the political class.”

WHAT IS IN THE WHITE PAPER
If German troops are also transferred to Romania, on the southern flank of the border between Ukraine and the EU, it will be difficult to rule out that a full-fledged NATO contingent will indeed enter the western regions of Ukraine. It is also quite likely that the alliance will prepare various provocations and aggressive actions against Russia from the territory of both Lithuania and Romania, as well as other limitrophe states.

The division of Ukraine into spheres of influence by the neighboring countries of Europe can be considered a fait accompli. It is also impossible to exclude the deployment of the Bundeswehr contingent in Slovakia in the future, Kamkin believes.

“The regime of Vladimir Zelensky is now in time trouble, ” the source says to IA Regnum . “ The “counterattack” failed for various reasons, and now their only option is to arrange some kind of large- scale provocation , as a result of which, of course, Russia will be blamed for everything, and the biased opinion of European politicians will be completely on their side.”

Taking advantage of this situation, a NATO contingent can indeed be introduced into the territory of Ukraine, admits Kamkin.

“The situation is really extremely explosive, because any increase in NATO military activity is naturally perceived as preparation for a war against Russia ,” the interlocutor argues. “ And NATO does not hide this, and the new German defense doctrine provides that Russia is the main threat in Europe.”

The “White Book” of the German Ministry of Defense, that is, in fact, the military doctrine of Germany in the latest edition, adopted in 2021, says: “ Without a fundamental change in course, Russia will become a threat to the security of our continent in the foreseeable future. Russia is no longer a partner, but a rival.”

The stable expression unser ausländischer Nebenbuhler (“our foreign rival”) used in German military vocabulary means “a potential enemy in a possible future war,” publicist Maxim Sokolov noted in a commentary on this to RIA Novosti .

Now we can talk about a kind of arrangement of chess pieces before a big European conflict, Kamkin believes. And the “casus belli” in this conflict may well not be the events in Ukraine.

“Some kind of sacred sacrifice can be made from some more serious European country in order to ignite the fire of a big war in Europe, since it is now extremely important for the Anglo-Americans to completely destroy the European architecture that has been taking shape for decades,” the expert believes .

“The Germans were drawn into the confrontation precisely in the east during the First World War, and later, when Hitler was already being heavily aimed at the east,” recalls the interlocutor.

Given the historical experience, Kamkin considers it highly likely that the Anglo-Saxon bloc may well try to push Germany against Russia for the third time on the historical path.


Posted by: badanov 2023-07-06
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=671702