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Daily Evacuation Brief September 10, 2023
 [AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- TORKHAM GATE STILL SHUT – While several meetings have taken place between Taliban and Pakistani officials have taken place, the crossing remained closed for a third day on Saturday. Afghan officials have called for the gate to be reopened immediately. Still, it appears that Pakistani officials are poised to use the impasse as a bargaining chip in its struggle to deny TTP terrorists safe havens in Afghanistan. The Taliban embassy in Islamabad has called on the government to reopen the gate and relieve the backlog of stranded commercial vehicles that are lined up on both sides of the border. However, Pakistani Foreign Ministry personnel have maintained that the gate’s reopening could hinge on a Taliban commitment to tackle the TTP problem that is undeniably hindering relations.
- US RELEASES INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ABOUT AL QAEDA IN AFGHANISTAN – US officials maintain that al Qaeda is unlikely to regain a foothold in Afghanistan and said that Taliban counter-ISIS operations have seriously degraded its ability to project power. The assessment is being questioned in some intelligence circles as it is not clear how the US has collected information pertaining to either organization. Every neighboring state has continued to call on the international community to keep an eye on terror threats from Afghanistan. Both al Qaeda and ISIS-K have been mentioned in these calls by name. It is not clear how healthy US intelligence networks that may remain in Afghanistan actually are. Many of the former members of the intelligence apparatus from the previous regime have plainly stated they have not had contact with any of their former US colleagues, despite making repeated attempts to do so. The US administration has made it very clear that it wants to put Afghanistan in the rearview mirror and the US President has gone so far as to say that al Qaeda is no longer in Afghanistan. Skeptics say the intelligence community in the US could simply be following the administration’s lead and are ignoring the persistent claims by neighboring states, who likely have robust human intelligence assets in Afghanistan.
- WHERE IS THE TALIBAN PRIME MINISTER? – Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, the acting Prime Minister for the Taliban has been missing after a two-month hiatus that began on 17 July. The Taliban say he is still unwell and cannot take meetings or fulfill his duties at this point. Analysts believe his absence is having a negative impact on both the domestic and foreign relations front.
NEXT 24 HOURS
TEMPERS AT TORKHAM COULD FLARE – As traders and non-combatants wait for the gate to reopen, it is possible that limited protests could take place. Interviews of many of the truck drivers on the Pakistan side of the border illustrated the frustrations they were facing. Some independent owners of commercial vehicles said that unless the crossing was opened by Monday, their cargo would spoil and they would lose profits they need to support their families. Many of those interviewed directed their anger at Pakistani officials. It is possible that protests could manifest if the situation remains deadlocked much longer. We do not envision a significant threat of violence but those at-risk Afghans who may be on either side of the border are advised to leave the area should crowds begin forming. Security forces on either side of the border have historically employed their weapons to deal with such threats.
Daily Evacuation Brief | September 9, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- US SAYS IT WILL BEGIN PROCESSING ASYLUM APPLICATIONS MORE QUICKLY – The US Department of Homeland Security has reportedly agreed to review applications of Afghans who came to the US more quickly. It didn’t do so willingly. The announcement was made after a settlement in a class-action lawsuit was reached on 6 September. The class-action suit was filed on behalf of 7 Afghans and alleged their cases were unlawfully delayed. The Department has been widely criticized for its abysmal performance throughout the Afghanistan crisis and several additional class-action suits are expected to be filed soon. Many Afghans and evacuating groups were bilked out of money that was never returned for the disastrous Humanitarian Parole offer that was made early in the evacuation.
- BADAKHSHAN OPERATIONS – Several unconfirmed reports suggest that more arrests have been made in the Province as the Taliban has launched an unspecified round-up operation that seems to be targeting possible supporters of Resistance groups. The most recent report claimed that over thirty people are now under arrest and are primarily composed of former government officials and former military personnel. It is said that all have been taken to Kabul. It is not clear what threat the Taliban is responding to and further information is eagerly awaited.
- ACTIVIST/POET ZABIH AYAR RELEASED FROM PRISON – Yesterday evening, the writer, poet, and civil rights activist Zabih Ayar was reportedly released from prison after a four-month stay. Several members of Ayar’s family posted the news of his release on their social media accounts. His release spurred calls for the Taliban to release other political prisoners who have been in detention in Afghanistan.
- TORKHAM STILL CLOSED – Negotiations have stalled between the Taliban and Islamabad over the situation at Torkham Gate and it was closed for a third day yesterday. It is not clear what is holding up the talks and several thousand people have queued on both sides of the border in anticipation of its reopening. An anonymous official in Kabul said the negotiations are being carried out at the ‘highest levels’ but would not divulge any further details.
NEXT 24 HOURS
BADAKHSHAN SECURITY OPERATION – If recent reports about large-scale arrests in Badakhshan prove to be true, at-risk Afghans in the Northern Province would be wise to maintain a low profile until more is known about the spate of recent arrests that locals have said are taking place. To date, the arrests are said to have occurred in Yaftal, Faizabad, Shuhada, Arghanjukhah, and Baharak Districts. It is believed that all those arrested had ties to the former regime and many had served in the military.
Posted by: trailing wife 2023-09-10 |
