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Russia's Tank Situation is Bad and It's Only Going to Get Worse – New Research
[Kyiv Post] French researchers have scrutinized thousands of Russian satellite photos and corporate records and concluded that if rate of attrition goes on, Moscow could run out of tanks by 2025.A recent French in-depth survey of Russian Federation tank production and losses has concluded the level of losses is such that it will be unable to conduct major armored operations for years to come, and that its army could effectively run out of tanks in Ukraine in 2025. The Marseilles-based "Institut Action Resilience (IAR)" used satellite images, published Russian sources, battlefield data, and research into Russian commercial archives to develop a detailed estimate it made public on Aug. 31. IAR’s conclusion is that Russian tank reserves are dramatically lower than the Kremlin would have outsiders believe. It contends that a realistic evaluation of Moscow’s tank stockpiles and its lack of industrial capacity to replace battlefield losses has resulted in a widening and impossible-to-close gap, the report found. Wester analysts agree that any major Russian offensive in Ukraine would be expected to rely on its conventional tactic of massed tank assaults, but the IAR report suggests that Russia no longer has that option and the situation is worsening. IAR figures show, that since the start of the war, Russia’s seven main tank repair and maintenance facilities have delivered 180-360 tanks of all types to the field. Western sanctions have effectively ended Russian capabilities to produce new tanks of any type and is currently used, without exception, to refurbish old Soviet armor. The institute’s evaluation was that Russia still holds a substantial stock of older tanks suitable for refurbishment, probably around 6,000 vehicles, which contradicts the assessment by other research groups, such as GlobalFirepower which put Russia’s total stocks at 12,566 vehicles. The IAR findings, however, indicated that a significant percentage of these supposed tank reserves are mere hulks stored in open fields. Even more critically, Russia’s tank production chain suffers a huge bottleneck as it has only seven major bases capable of installing modern communications, optics and defense systems on even well-stored tanks. According to the report, the whole of Russian industry is currently only delivering 390 tanks a year to combat formations. This is in stark contrast with Moscow’s official claims that just one of Russia’s tank factories, Uralvagonzavod, is producing 200 tanks a month and increasing production levels. Ukrainian reports from the battlefield tend to confirm the IAR findings and bely the Kremlin’s bravado. Public statements by Ukrainian military sources, many interviewed by Kyiv Post, highlighted that since the spring Russian forces have rarely committed tanks into battle and when they do no more than five or six. Russian tank crews avoid moving into the open, preferring to hide behind hills and use their armored vehicles as indirect fire platforms, those accounts say. The IAR report cited thermal sights for night vision observation and firing, have been standard on NATO tanks since the 1980s. IAR sees this as a definitive indicator that Russia is sacrificing tank quality for the sake of maintaining a flow of replacement vehicles. It says "While [prior to the war] T-72B3 and T-80BVM main battle tanks were initially fitted with Sosna-U visible and thermal multi-channel sights, models from November 2022 are now fitted with an old [Soviet era] generation 1PN96MT-02 sight with half the range." Posted by: Enver Slager8035 2023-09-19 |
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