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Half a million under arms. What threatens Russia with tougher mobilization in Ukraine
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.by Mikhail Zakharov [REGNUM] On Thursday, April 11, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a law tightening mobilization rules. The document must be signed by Vladimir Zelensky, and then, approximately in mid-May, it will come into force. There is no doubt that Zelensky will approve the innovations. Especially considering the fact that he recently reduced the age of those subject to mobilization from 27 years to 25 years. After the adoption of the law, life will become harder for most male Ukrainians, and for many - shorter. Firstly, all those liable for military service who have not yet updated their data in the TCC (territorial recruitment centers that perform the functions of military registration and enlistment offices) are required to do so within 60 days. Otherwise, the fine is 17–22.5 thousand hryvnia (from 40 to 54 thousand rubles). Secondly, all men between the ages of 18 and 60 are required to carry a military ID. If it is not there or the data is incorrect, the person will be detained. TCC employees, police officers and border guards will be able to check the “military personnel”. In addition, without this document, Ukrainians who have gone abroad will not be able to obtain a new or renew a valid passport. Thirdly, those who previously received disability groups II and III will have to undergo a medical examination again. In addition, provisions on demobilization are excluded from the law. Now mobilized Ukrainians will not be able to leave the service after 36 months. At the same time, heads of government bodies, deputies, employees of strategic enterprises and some media and cultural workers, in particular, the Traveling Circus of Ukraine, will be exempt from mobilization. The law adopted by the Rada will not fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine, says Donetsk sociologist Denis Seleznev. Many norms, he explains in an interview with IA Regnum, were in effect before: for example, Ukrainian security forces required military ID from men even before the adoption of the law. At the same time, the life of draft dodgers will become more difficult - in particular, their right to drive a car will be limited. Key norms for the authorities have already been adopted in other laws: the abolition of the status of “limited fitness” and the reduction of the conscription age to 25 years, Seleznev believes. “The fundamental thing in the new document was the abolition of the provision on the demobilization of military personnel after 36 months. Moreover, against the backdrop of the fact that Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers are actively demanding that they be replaced on the front line. For them, this light in the window went out,” notes the sociologist. "SECOND CLASS SUMMONS" Even before the law was adopted, Ukrainian authorities announced the need to mobilize approximately half a million recruits. Now there are about 3.5 million potential military personnel remaining in Ukraine, military expert Vladimir Gundarov told IA Regnum. It is, of course, impossible to conscript everyone, since Kiev needs men not only in the army, but also in critically important industries and services, such as the Ministry of Emergency Situations. “ To call up one mobilized person, it is necessary that six working people remain in the rear, who would ensure the normal existence and functioning of government bodies and enterprises,” the expert emphasizes. At the same time, according to him, the Kiev regime has already “scavenged out” many combat-ready men. Denis Seleznev speaks about the same thing: the number of conscripts into the Armed Forces of Ukraine is steadily decreasing, the previous methods of conscription no longer work. “ If in the first six months they mobilized 600–800 thousand people, then by August 2023 another 400 thousand. What they really count on is 200–240 thousand people a year, which allows them to cover losses, but not to build up the group,” — the interlocutor of IA Regnum is sure. Surely things will come to a full-fledged conscription of women to the front. In the meantime, judging by numerous videos from Ukrainian cities, “robbers” grab men right on the streets and in transport, without regard to age. “Motivation is very bad now. Everyone who wanted to fight has already left. And those who didn’t want to remain in the rear, they are caught,” says Vladimir Gundarov. “This will be a second-class conscription.” "IT'S A TRAFFIC JAM" Experts interviewed by Regnum news agency agree: tougher mobilization will not really affect the situation at the front. Yes, Kyiv can theoretically call up new soldiers to the front, but this will be “plugging holes” - they will not have time, they will not even try, to fully train them. At the same time, they will be thrown into the most difficult areas where reinforcements are urgently needed. It is impossible to assemble strike fists from such fighters for possible attacks. Moreover, Ukraine has a big problem with equipment and heavy weapons, military expert Anatoly Matviychuk tells IA Regnum. “On the battlefield, infantry solves problems only when it operates in conjunction with aviation, heavy equipment, and weapons, which Ukraine does not have. How will mobilization affect the situation at the front? It will only prolong the war. They will not be able to launch any counter-offensives,” predicts Matviychuk. Russia will probably continue to use the tactic of grinding down enemy personnel, since it brings success at the front. Posted by: badanov 2024-04-13 |
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