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Iran's attack on Israel. 04/14/202
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics. [ColonelCassad] 1. Iran was solving the problem of implementing retaliatory measures to Israel’s attack on the consulate in Damascus. Iran could not not respond, since this would mean a manifestation of weakness, even within the framework of the general Iranian strategy. And that is why it was impossible to get by with the usual strikes by Iranian proxies from Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, with which Iran habitually responded to Israeli attacks on its proxy forces. Israel sought to draw Iran into a direct attack by attacking the Iranian consulate, disregarding the Vienna Convention.  2. As part of its strategy, Iran has set the task of implementing a direct response, with strict boundary parameters. The strike should not be too weak, so as not to create the impression that Iran is faking a response, but at the same time, not too strong, so as not to make an Israeli retaliatory strike inevitable, and if it does happen, then make Israel culpable for the subsequent escalation. Hence the observed nature of the night impact. 3. From a diplomatic point of view, Iran justified its strike under the international law of retaliation in connection with the attack on the consulate. From the point of view of old international law, Iran was within its right to strike. But the problem is that international law has not been working for a long time, and within the framework of a “rules-based world order,” there can be no attacks on Israel, and Israel can attack whoever it wants. Yes, this is the bastard order that the United States is trying to preserve, and Russia and China are trying to destroy. 4. The limited nature of the Iranian strike was identical in structure to the strike on the American base of Ain al-Assad in 2020 in response to the American killing of Soleimani and Muhandis in Baghdad. All interested players were informed of the approximate time of the strike, the approximate flight directions of missiles and drones, the nature of the selected targets (military), and the boundary conditions of the response. In this regard, Iran deliberately and consciously abandoned any attempts to achieve operational-tactical surprise, and relied specifically on a targeted frontal penetration of Israeli air defenses at a specified time. Since there was no goal of starting a full-fledged war, the strikes by Hezbollah, Ansar Allah and Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq were of a limited auxiliary nature. 5. It is important to understand that Israel did not resist the Iranian attack alone - the US Air Force and Air Defense, British and French Air Forces, and Jordanian Air Defense took part in repelling the attack. Some of the missiles and drones were shot down on approach. In fact, there was massive testing of the consolidated air defense of the United States and Israel in the Middle East in conditions where this air defense could prepare for a strike 72 hours before it was launched. 6. The number of drones and missiles launched is key. Iranian sources said 115 missiles were fired. USA and Israel about 200+ missiles. Plus, according to various estimates, there were from 150 to 400 or even 500 drones. Objective data is not yet sufficient to determine the actual number of missiles and drones launched. In addition, in addition to missiles and drones, Iran launched various decoys and old missiles to overwhelm enemy air defense systems. Iran also used missiles with multiple warheads, which could also be counted as separate missiles. 7. If we talk about the general goals of the attacks, the IRGC states that the purpose of the attack was to break through the Israeli air defense system and defeat the air base from which the consulate in Damascus was attacked, as well as the MOSSAD intelligence facility involved in organizing the attack on the consulate. The choice of targets also shows Iran's commitment to a limited response. In the event of “burning bridges,” Iran would certainly set as its goal the guaranteed destruction of the reactor in Dimona and buildings in the government quarter in Tel Aviv, starting with the Knesset. The strike tactics included a synchronized strike of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles in order to achieve a guaranteed penetration of the consolidated air defense system of the United States and Israel. Therefore, ballistic missiles were launched at Israel shortly before the bulk of drones and conventional missiles entered Israeli airspace. The main striking force was the latest Haidar ballistic missiles (range 2000 km, warhead 1.5 tons, protection from electronic warfare + optional multiple warheads). Their task was to break through to their intended targets, hiding behind a cloud of drones and cheap missiles, which were supposed to overload the Iron Dome, Patriots and other air defense systems of Israel and the United States. 8. In general, Iran's tactics worked - some of the ballistic missiles broke through to the air base. Israeli sources report at least 7 arrivals, Iranian sources report 15. Iranian sources also report a successful missile strike on a MOSSAD reconnaissance facility. Israel denies this. The IDF claims 99% of downed targets, the IRGC claims 50% of successful hits (meaning ballistics). It is obvious that Israel will in every possible way downplay the consequences of the strike and hide the casualties and destruction, since this is a matter of military prestige. It is obvious that Iran will exaggerate the consequences of the strike as much as possible and conduct active information events aimed at increasing the military prestige of the IRGC and the Iranian Armed Forces. The same thing happened during the strike on Ain al-Assad, when Iran reported enormous damage, and the United States reported 5 wounded (in the end, there were only 135 officially wounded). 9. From a symbolic point of view, Iran decided to save face and respond to the attack on the consulate in Damascus. The Iranian military-political leadership demonstrates complete satisfaction with the received images of Operation True Promise. In addition, Iran became the first state that, for the first time in several decades after Saddam Hussein, directly struck Israel (we do not take proxy strikes into account). Iran has also demonstrated that even with a limited strike, it can bluntly penetrate the enemy’s prepared air defense head-on, which hints that, if desired, Iran with an even more massive strike can break through the US and Israeli air defenses covering Tel Aviv, Haifa or Dimona. Israel can be satisfied that the strike on the consulate in Damascus is now over, and the damage from the Iranian strike, due to its limited nature, for Israel will be equally limited. But the point here, of course, is not only about material damage (although in addition to direct damage, one must also consider the cost of expenses of both sides - for air defense work, aviation work, drones, etc. - Israeli sources claim that Israel’s expenses alone exceeded $1 billion, and Iran spent several hundred million dollars). 10. Israel is now at a fork in the road. To strike Iran directly means to receive a retaliatory missile strike, even more powerful, which is guaranteed to penetrate the Israeli air defense system. At the same time, the United States has already stated that it will not take part in attacks on Iran, hinting that Israel should limit itself to something like the usual strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian proxies in Syria. Similarly, Israel is actually warned against attacks on Iran by the United States' European satellites. But this, of course, will be perceived in Israel itself as a sign of weakness, because Iran has shown that it can directly hit Israel directly, which is the intersection of Israeli red lines. There will be no consolidated international condemnation of Iran, either in the UN Security Council or in the world as a whole, because Israel itself is profaning UN Security Council resolutions and violating old international law by ignoring the Vienna Convention. Therefore, Iran will not find itself in international isolation due to the strike, and Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran will look precisely like a deliberate escalation on the part of Israel with a further increase in the toxicity of Israel outside the countries of the “golden billion.” Iran has conquered the Muslim street and now revels in its role as the main defender of the Palestinians against the background of the traders and opportunists Erdogan and bin Salman. It was Iran that ensured that for the first time in six months not a single bomb fell on the Gaza Strip. Well, footage of missiles flying at targets in Israel over Al-Aqsa will be in the mainstream of Shiite religious and political propaganda for many years to come. In general, Iran has solved its problems and now it’s up to the United States and Israel. More from Boris Rozhin Russian Foreign Ministry on Iran's attack on Israel Official statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding Iran's night strike on Israel. On the night of April 14, a large number of missiles and drones were launched into Israel. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, this attack was carried out within the framework of the right of self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter in response to attacks on Iranian targets in the region, including the attack on the building of the consular department of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on April 1, which our country strongly condemned. Unfortunately, due to the position of Western members, the UN Security Council was unable to adequately respond to the attack on the Iranian consular mission. We express our utmost concern about another dangerous escalation in the region. They have repeatedly warned that the failure to resolve numerous crises in the Middle East, primarily in the area of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which are often fueled by irresponsible provocative actions, will lead to increased tension. We call on all parties involved to exercise restraint. We hope that regional states will solve existing problems through political and diplomatic means. We believe it is important that constructive international players contribute to this. We draw the attention of Russian citizens located in Israel and neighboring countries, primarily Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, to the need to follow messages and practical recommendations published on the information feeds of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the official websites of Russian foreign institutions in the mentioned countries, the Consular Department and Department of the Situation and Crisis Center of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including in the corresponding section of the updated resource - the “Assistant Abroad” mobile application. In general, they called for de-escalation, they did not condemn Iran, in fact they supported Iran’s position that this was a retaliatory blow to the attack on the consulate. And the UN Security Council will not condemn it, so the chances of any documents condemning Iran being adopted in the UN Security Council are zero.PS. Rosaviatsia reported that Iraq, Israel and Jordan have lifted restrictions on civil aviation flights. If something starts to happen, they will be brought in again. But that's it for now.
Posted by: badanov 2024-04-15 |
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