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A new state friendly to Russia may appear in Europe
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Bogdan Kish

[REGNUM] The pressure faced by the Republika Srpska is pushing President Milorad Dodik and his circle to serious actions that are not to the liking of the collective West, but bring it closer to a historic solution.

Criminal cases, foreign interference, threats and blackmail - over the past year, the Serbian entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina has faced unprecedented pressure due to its refusal to impose anti-Russian sanctions, give up its powers to Sarajevo and join NATO.

Milorad Dodik has repeatedly stated that the Serbian people in Bosnia and Herzegovina have several “red lines”, if they cross them, the region will face serious consequences. If the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), with the help of the West, tries to “push” Banja Luka on a number of issues, including imposing anti-Serbian laws and recognizing the resolution on Srebrenica, the Serbs may declare independence.

But such an announcement is not the most difficult decision, unlike the pressure that is expected after. The main question is: will Banja Luka be able to survive?

REPRESENTATIVE DESTROYER
After the civil war, peace never came to Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the West, they decided to forcibly keep three peoples within one state, albeit divided into two parts - the Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation of BiH.

Since 1995, the country has introduced the position of High Representative, who is responsible for monitoring the implementation of the Dayton Peace Treaty. To say that all representatives vested with practically unlimited power worked against the Republika Srpska is an understatement.

However, I would like to dwell separately on the current High Representative, German politician Christian Schmidt, who was mired in scandals in his homeland and sent to Bosnia and Herzegovina into a kind of exile. His appointment is not recognized by Republika Srpska, Russia, or China, since his powers were not confirmed by the UN Security Council.

However, the lack of a UN Security Council mandate does not prevent Schmidt, who is actively supported by official Berlin and the US and British embassies, from pursuing a de facto anti-Serbian policy. The fact that Schmidt “wouldn’t work” with the Republika Srpska became clear when he insisted on implementing the “Law on Denial of Genocide in Srebrenica,” which not only prohibited denial, but also punished it with a prison term.

Republika Srpska, naturally, does not recognize either the law or the fact of genocide. In this regard, in August 2023, the prosecutor's office of Bosnia and Herzegovina brought charges against the president of the republic under the law on “failure to comply with decisions of the Constitutional Court and the High Representative.”

The confrontation between Schmidt and Dodik reached a new level when the High Representative, not recognized by many, tried to impose the “Electoral Law” and the “Property Law.”

The first assumed that the Central Election Commission (CEC) of BiH would have more rights and opportunities to influence the electoral process throughout the country, and the second - that all the property of the entities - from natural resources to government buildings - would belong to Sarajevo.

Both laws directly violate the Dayton Accords, which Schmidt is supposed to be enforcing. The innovations caused a strong reaction in Banja Luka, which stated that it not only does not recognize the imposition of such laws, but is also ready to consider the possibility of leaving BiH.

And recently, to these two “red lines” a third was added - work on a UN resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica.

“BOSNIA MAY NOT SURVIVE THE RESOLUTION”
In March, it became known that the Bosniak part of the Bosnia and Herzegovina mission to the UN was independently, without a decision from the BiH Presidency, working on a new resolution on Srebrenica. It is due to be presented at the UN General Assembly on May 2.

According to the draft resolution being prepared, July 11 will be declared “international day of genocide in Srebrenica”, the Serbian people will be called responsible for the genocide, and reparations may be demanded from the Republika Srpska and Serbia. Political pressure on the entity will also increase.

Despite the fact that such a resolution is not binding, a “sediment,” as they say, will remain. Moreover, neither the Germans, nor the British, nor the Spaniards, nor the Croats, etc. were not found responsible for genocide, despite proven crimes against humanity.

Just as the mass killings of Serbs in the concentration camps of Jasenovac, Jastrebarsko, Banica, and the executions in Kragujevac and Kraljevo were not declared genocide.

It is worth recalling that this is not the first attempt to assign such responsibility to the Serbs. In 2015, at the UN Security Council, the UK did everything to adopt a similar resolution, but then it was blocked by Russia.

The Russian “no” and the raised hand of the late permanent representative Vitaly Churkin saved the Serbian people from the stigma and again reminded Belgrade who its main ally is. The Russian diplomat himself received more than one monument in Serbia and the Republika Srpska for this decision.

And now nine years later, the West is again trying to adopt an anti-Serbian resolution, but not in the UN Security Council, but through the General Assembly, where no one has the right of veto.

Why now? Relations between Republika Srpska and Russia are at their peak. Milorad Dodik and Vladimir Putin presented each other with state awards, bilateral relations are developing in all directions. Banja Luka demonstratively refuses to introduce anti-Russian sanctions, which saves the whole of BiH from the status of an unfriendly country, and also blocks BiH’s entry into NATO.

Pressure on the Republika Srpska is also pressure on Serbia, which supports the Serbs on the other side of the Drina in everything. Belgrade and Banja Luka are Russia's only friends in the Balkans. This prevents the West from completely controlling the region and drawing the republics into NATO.

President Milorad Dodik has repeatedly called on the Bosniaks not to provoke the situation and not to incite ethnic hatred, since “Bosnia and Herzegovina may not survive the resolution.” According to the head of the RS, the Serbs see no point in continuing to live in the same country with those who consider their people guilty of genocide.

“Don't do this because it is not conducive to life in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This will not unite us, but will separate us forever. We do not want to live with those who say that the Serbian people are “genocidal”. We don’t want to live with you and we won’t live in the same country with you,” Dodik emphasized.

On April 18, a rally called “R. Serbia is calling you,” where the top leadership of the entity, as well as the Prime Minister and ministers from Serbia, were present. Several tens of thousands of Serbs from both sides of the Drina gathered in the square and presented a united front against the resolution on Srebrenica.

In addition, the Serbs do not understand why they should mourn the victims of others, while no one even remembers their losses for more than 30 years, which certainly does not contribute to reconciliation. From the stage, politicians declared that the national idea of ​​the Serbs from Serbia and Republika Srpska is unification. The people supported.

Naturally, the brightest speaker was Milorad Dodik, who said : “Serbia is our land, our state. If it were God’s will, constitutional and any other justice, we would be an integral part of Serbia, and not this crap called Bosnia and Herzegovina.”

Hints of an imminent declaration of independence are heard more and more often in Banja Luka. And Republika Srpska is not limited to just words.

NOT BY RALLIES ALONE
On April 18, the Republika Srpska parliament adopted the report of an independent international commission. At one time, Banja Luka asked her for help in investigating the events in Srebrenica and the surrounding area in order to prove that accusations of genocide were lies. The group was led by the famous Israeli historian and “Nazi hunter” Gideon Greif.

According to the commission's findings, during the entire period of the war from 1992 to 1995, 3,741 people died in the Srebrenica region, more than 2,500 of them were Serbs. The National Assembly of the RS supports the point of view expressed in the conclusions of the commission and confirms that the term “genocide” for Srebrenica is incorrect and cannot be accepted.

At the same time, Parliament expresses its respect to the victims of the tragic conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina and their families and condemns the war crimes committed by all parties.

The report of the commission led by Greif is the only legitimate document that recognizes the Serbian entity.

Banja Luka also adopted its own law, which provides for the holding of municipal and republican elections. “We will return what belongs to us,” Dodik said.

Thus, the Republika Srpska actually ousted the Central Election Commission of BiH from its territory, and the Serbs working in this body resigned. This is how Banja Luka wants to protect itself from interference in the elections from Sarajevo.

If the resolution on Srebrenica is adopted, the Republika Srpska will not stop there and will return all its powers that were given by the Dayton Peace Agreement. Powers that, over the years, have effectively been taken away by Sarajevo and the West, using various pressures - from threats to personal sanctions.

The list of initial powers belonging to the Dayton Republic includes the return of the army, jurisdiction in the fields of justice, energy, government procurement, tax policy, border control, the electoral process, and so on.

In fact, Republika Srpska may soon become a full-fledged and independent state within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and then, possibly, beyond them.

The West continues to rely on Sarajevo in attempts to create a unitary Bosnia, which will oppose Russia, join NATO, and move away from Serbia. Republika Srpska does not see any point in continuing to coexist with the Federation of BiH within the framework of an artificially created state.

Milorad Dodik has made this clear with his latest statements. Given the seriousness of his intentions and the noticeably tougher rhetoric, Banja Luka clearly has an action plan and, apparently, support outside the entity.

One thing is for sure - in the near future the Balkans will not let the world get bored again.

Posted by: badanov 2024-04-21
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=697219