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Qatar vs. Saudi Arabia: Who Will Determine the Policy of the 'New Syria'
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] On January 30, the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, arrived in Damascus. He became the first world (and, more importantly, the first Arab) leader to officially visit the “new Syria” and meet with the country’s renewed leadership. The visit was in many ways historic.

The 13-year "era of rift" between Qatar and Syria has come to an end. Now the Qatari authorities intend not only to make up for lost time, but also to bypass other Arabian monarchies that are aiming to take Damascus under soft control.

OFFICIAL COLLEAGUES
The day before the Qatari emir's visit, the "Victory Conference" was held in Damascus - an extended meeting of key figures in the anti-Assad coalition. The conference effectively put an end to the "Assad era": all previous institutions were dissolved, the constitution was annulled, and the process of restructuring the armed forces and special services was launched.

In addition, the delegates approved the candidacy of the leader of the "new Syria". As expected, Ahmed al-Sharaa (better known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani ), who previously led the banned terrorist group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham", was elected.

Syria has officially defined the management team for the next five years, which has opened up the opportunity for external players to interact with the “new Damascus” on a completely official basis and to position al-Sharaa and his associates no longer as “temporary workers,” but as colleagues.

THE PATH TO PROSPERITY
Qatar is one of the countries that, with the start of the civil war in Syria, distanced itself from official Damascus and did not conduct any dealings with the Bashar al-Assad administration. Unlike most Arab countries, Doha closed the dialogue in all areas, including sensitive ones (for example, along the intelligence services line), while other Arab powers, despite a public boycott, left several emergency channels open.

After the fall of the republic and the rise to power of pro-Turkish politicians, Qatar's position as Turkey's closest military and political partner has predictably changed. At the end of December 2024, Doha gave the go-ahead to open an embassy in Damascus. And over the next month, several Qatari ministers and, finally, the emir himself visited the country. 13 years of silence have given way to a heated dialogue.

It is important to note that the “new Damascus” appreciated Doha’s support: Qatar was chosen as the first stop on the new Syrian government’s foreign tour. Only after a series of meetings in Doha did the Syrian delegation visit Saudi Arabia and the UAE, thus emphasizing its foreign policy priorities.

Syria's focus on developing dialogue with the Gulf countries is not accidental. To stabilize the economy and strengthen the country's international image, Damascus needs the support of influential, strong and financially secure regional players, which are the Arabian monarchies.

In addition, the new Syrian authorities hope to take advantage of the loyalty of the Gulf countries and ensure the country’s full return to the League of Arab States (LAS).

It is also noteworthy that the Syrian side decided to postpone the official visit to Turkey until February 2025, raising its level from ministerial to the highest. It is assumed that the country will be visited personally by the President of Syria for the transitional period, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

With this diplomatic move, Damascus hopes to emphasize its loyalty to Ankara without pushing it as a key partner in the Middle East. The “New Damascus” still strives to associate itself with the Arab world and skillfully exploits the idea of ​​“Arab unity” in its dialogue with the Arabian monarchies.

BIG PROMISES
The frequency of diplomatic relations between Doha and Damascus since the fall of the republic has broken all records - no other Arab country has conducted such intensive interaction with the new Syrian authorities.

Qatar also leads in the number of areas in which the "new Damascus" has been promised assistance. In addition to the financial and energy sectors, Doha promises its Syrian partners assistance in the humanitarian sphere and help in reforming the education sector.

Qatar also promises to lobby Europe to lift some of the sanctions on Damascus, which seems possible given Qatar's strong influence on the EU energy market.

At the same time, the parties are deliberately avoiding discussing Qatar’s military presence on Syrian territory – the new Syrian leaders still do not agree on whose presence on their lands is acceptable.

Doha itself is not eager to address this issue - for the Qatari authorities, remote cooperation without a direct military presence seems more advantageous. Especially considering that there are enough forces in the country that would perceive the appearance of the Qatari army here as a personal challenge.

DOHA VS RIYADH
Doha’s current work on Syria is largely aimed at containing other players seeking to benefit from the unstable position of the new Syrian authorities. The greatest danger, from Qatar’s point of view, comes from Saudi Arabia, the country’s key competitor in the Middle East.

The Saudis, although they "bet" on Assad shortly before the fall of the republic, quickly regrouped and are now promising Damascus significant economic injections, as well as diplomatic support. The volume of promised investments is slightly less than what Doha promises.

However, Riyadh’s proposals in practice look much more modest, since they suggest gradual assistance and only in exchange for “diplomatic assistance.”

Such a cautious approach is due to the fact that Saudi Arabia is alarmed by the obvious predominance of Turkish creatures in the new government and is trying to carefully advance the appointment of its figures. Otherwise, the announced aid will be distributed by Riyadh in even more measured doses.

For Qatar, Damascus's pro-Turkish orientation is rather a plus, and the Saudis' attempts to interfere in Syria's internal affairs open up the opportunity to extinguish Riyadh's key trump card in advance - influence on the course of the League of Arab States.

The Qatari authorities are trying to convey to Damascus (so far unobtrusively) a simple idea: if the “new Syria” makes a choice in favor of Doha, it will ultimately still restore its position in the Arab League – but in exchange it will receive greater dividends than from cooperation with Riyadh. Similar views are being instilled by Turkish advisers, who are striving for a “political sparring match” between the two allied countries.

The Saudis have not yet been able to break this trend.


Posted by: badanov 2025-02-01
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=738145