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'The Decisive Battle Is Coming Soon.' Kyiv Has Nothing to Plug the Holes in Donbas
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.by Sergey Adamov [REGNUM] While Kyiv is putting forward conditions for potential peace talks, the Russian Armed Forces continue their successful offensive along the entire front. By the end of January, assault units had liberated 325 square kilometers of territory in the DPR and Kharkiv Oblast.  In Donbass, Russian troops continue their offensive with the aim of completely encircling Pokrovsk, a strategic hub for enemy defense. Fighting is taking place simultaneously to the east and west of the city. According to reports from the field, the assault units have achieved another success, liberating the settlement of Vodyanoye Vtoroye. The settlement is located in close proximity to the road junction where the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and the Druzhkovka-Novosyolovka highway intersect. The success achieved allows us to consolidate control over the key supply route for the Ukrainian Armed Forces by disrupting communications between two enemy defensive nodes – Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. Previously, the defense in this area was held by units of the 47th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which tried to hold the front even at the cost of heavy losses. But later the brigade was transferred to the Kursk region, and the strategic direction was left without cover. The Russian Armed Forces also advanced west of Pokrovsk, expanding the bridgehead in the area of the village of Kotlino. Our units advanced along the T-0406 highway, approaching the western outskirts of the city to a distance of five kilometers. There are also reports of military actions in the area of the village of Udachnoye. Ukrainian sources believe that in the near future the captured bridgehead will be used to break through to the M-30 Pokrovsk-Pavlograd highway, a key supply route for the enemy group in the western part of Donbass. At the same time, the units of the Russian Armed Forces located to the south and west of Pokrovsk will not begin the assault on the city until it is completely surrounded. In turn, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command is aware of the threat hanging over the city, but does not plan to give the order to retreat, says a source of the Regnum news agency in the Pokrovsk direction. "There is no point in waiting for them to leave. The city will be defended, even against common sense. Many have already written in Telegram channels that the assault has either begun or is about to begin. In fact, the real assault will happen when aviation and artillery (artillery. - Ed.) begin to knock out their observation posts, strongholds. It will be noisy, so everyone will hear. The decisive battle is coming soon," the source predicts. Simultaneously with the operation to encircle Pokrovsk, Russian troops continue to conduct additional reconnaissance of targets in the city itself and the enemy's operational rear in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian sources report the activity of reconnaissance drones identifying targets for airstrikes. KYIV THROWS RESERVES INTO BATTLE The Ukrainian Armed Forces Command in Donbass has almost no combat-ready reserves left, since the most experienced units have been scattered in other directions. Therefore, units from among the mobilized troops who have not undergone the necessary training and do not have heavy weapons are increasingly being sent to the Pokrovsk area, Ukrainian Armed Forces officer Anton Cherny said in a comment to the media. "The Pokrovsk direction is hot right now. And they're sending unprepared people there. Without ammunition, without knowing how to disassemble machine guns, without weapons, without equipment," Cherny states. It was previously reported that Kyiv is patching holes in its defense with 150th series brigades formed in 2023–2024. The fighters of the “fresh” units, caught during mobilization, are not distinguished by high fighting spirit and often abandon their positions. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also faced with incompetence among the command staff at the company-battalion level, with officers fleeing their positions even earlier than ordinary fighters. The 155th and 157th brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces faced similar problems, suffering heavy losses in the vicinity of Pokrovsk. And the enemy's combat-ready 59th brigade repeatedly attempted to counterattack in the Novoelizavetovka area, but suffered losses and retreated to its original positions. BRIDGEHEAD IN KHARKIV REGION As Russian troops advance in Donbass, the media increasingly talk about the Russian Armed Forces preparing for a new large-scale offensive on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. In recent months, this region has been actively preparing for defense, especially against the backdrop of the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Pokrovsk region. In the context of the upcoming battles for Slavyansk, control over a section of territory located at the junction of the territories of the DPR, LPR and the Kharkov region, as well as in the Kupyansk area, is of strategic importance. The Russian Armed Forces are expanding their control zone near the village of Dvurechye on the right bank of the Oskol River and north of Kupyansk. As a result of a series of successful offensive operations, the bridgehead has been expanded to 65 square kilometers. In the long term, success in the Kharkov direction could allow a breakthrough into the rear of the enemy group in Slavyansk, cutting off the enemy’s supply routes, IA Regnum sources note. "The assault on Slavyansk may begin after we reach Izyum and Balakleya again in order to break through to Donbass from the north. There is no need to rush things, but the assault on Kupyansk and the crossing of the Oskol River are very promising, so to speak, events that may allow us to break through to the rear of the enemy group in Donbass," the source added. The Ukrainian Armed Forces Command in the Kupyansk region is trying to secure the front line in the area of the villages of Doroshovka and Kutkovka in order to prevent a breakthrough to the city from the north. As in Donbass, the Ukrainian army in this area is facing a shortage of reserves and logistical problems. BET ON THE WEATHER The abnormal winter complicates logistics at the front. Too warm weather has turned the black soil into a real swamp, in which heavy wheeled and even tracked armored vehicles get stuck. Ukrainian sources are placing special hopes on the coming cold snap. It is expected that in the middle of the week the temperature in the Kupyansk region will drop to minus 10 degrees, and in Pokrovsk - to minus 5. In muddy conditions, control over highways becomes key. After Russian troops intercept the enemy's logistics routes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose the ability to supply the garrisons of the "fortress cities" by roundabout routes. Ukrainian troops are counting on the cold weather, hoping to create reserve supply routes for troops in Pokrovsk, Kupyansk and other areas. But, forecasters predict, the winter cold will not last long in Donbass. By the end of February, full-fledged spring will come to the region, so control over the roads will again become critically important. At the same time, the very fact that Kyiv is betting on the weather indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces simply have no other hopes left. In the long term, the Ukrainian command can only try to prolong the battles in the "fortress cities" that are fighting in complete encirclement. But Kyiv has no real trump cards that could change the situation on the front. Posted by: badanov 2025-02-04 |
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