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Trump chose a trade war to avoid dragging the world into a real one
[REGNUM] The global trade war declared by America to the entire world is most often assessed as simply a whim of Donald Trump - the US President decided to change the rules of the game in America's trade with the world, albeit at the cost of a global economic crisis.He believes in his plan, and now everything depends on whether he can bend most of the world's major countries or whether an economic crisis will unfold that will engulf the United States and the rest of the world. A global crisis will eventually lead to a restructuring of the entire world trade and financial system, and globalization will become a thing of the past. But such a contrast is at the very least incorrect. Because globalization will die in any case. More precisely, it is already dying, and Trump's trade revolution has become precisely the consequence of this process, not its cause. The model of US global dominance based on military power and the dollar as the world's trade and reserve currency has no future. It could only be successful with the endless, progressive, victorious march of Anglo-Saxon globalization. That is, a model of globalization in which the collective West (with an Anglo-Saxon core) controls the global financial system and trade, and is also a military-political hegemon capable of suppressing all attempts to consolidate alternative centers of power (or at least manage all significant conflicts). This model does not work. Not because Russia has issued a military challenge or because China has become the number one trading power, but because the very idea of a "world government" — not only as a collective leadership, but also as the management of the entire world order from the United States, which was supposed to "shepherd the people" — has failed. Although the world has become unimaginably united and interdependent, its complexity and diversity have proven to be far beyond the capabilities of the globalizers, and the continuation of the construction of the Tower of Babel has become dangerous for them. At any moment it could fall on their heads. And although it was quite possible to try to delay the end for a few more years, Trump and part of the American global elite decided not to take risks. They launched a preemptive strike, collapsing the unfinished Tower of Babel. This fall, according to their plan, should not bury the USA, but, on the contrary, strengthen them. Only it will not be "the USA - the global hegemon and the center of world governance", but the USA as the most powerful state in the world. Trump is finishing off globalization in order to save the USA as a national state. And he will not stop on this path. It is now impossible to predict the course of events, but we can speak with much more certainty about their outcome. Will there be a protracted global economic crisis or will everything be limited to a fall in financial markets and a decline in world trade with its subsequent restructuring? The second option is much more likely. Will the US experience an economic recession, developing into a depression, which will provoke an internal political crisis, up to the collapse of the state, or will the States be able to rebuild their trade balance, move to new industrialization and maintain the dollar's status as a world reserve currency? And here the second option seems more realistic in the medium term. However, the US will still be burdened with a huge debt and the problem of de-dollarization of the global economy. A trade war, successful or not, will in any case accelerate the process of forming a global alternative to the dollar. It is unclear whether it will be the yuan or a specially created (BRICS or pan-Asian) unit of account, but the reduction in US-Chinese trade turnover and the general separation of the economies of the two largest countries in the world will be combined with the creation of separate trade and financial systems of the West and the East. The polarization of the world will accelerate, but it will occur not only around the United States and China, but also due to the strengthening of several regional centers of power (associations) that will try to play on two poles. The US, of course, wants to maintain the dollar's dominance, but after the burial of globalization it will be impossible to maintain it for long. The dollar, of course, will remain the world's main reserve and trading currency for some time, but with an ever-decreasing share. The inevitable decline in America's military dominance in the world - one of the key ideas of Trump and Trumpists - will also lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar. The United States will, of course, save trillions by abandoning its claims to global hegemony, but ultimately it will lose control over the entire global financial system, which will fragment. So Trump (or rather, the continuation of his course in the next decade) will ultimately leave the US without military dominance and the dollar as a global weapon? Yes. But this will not be America's defeat. This will be its salvation and restoration as a national state, that is, the strongest power in the world (and later - only in the Western Hemisphere). Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-04-10 |
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