|
If America Abandons Europe, Will the Continent Fragment or Unify?
[War On The Rocks] For over seventy years, U.S. military power has formed the backbone of Europe’s security architecture. American leadership enabled the continent to prioritize political integration and economic development while relying on a trans-Atlantic alliance to deter external threats. That arrangement is now under increasing strain. In his second term, President Donald Trump has pushed European allies to commit up to five percent of their gross domestic product to defense and has signaled that the United States may no longer provide a conventional military backstop on the continent.Some suggest that this is a calculated effort to compel Europe to assume greater responsibility and that the United States will remain committed to the alliance. Yet even if that is the intent rather than absolute abandonment, the effect is the same: Europe would be prudent to plan for a future without an American security guarantee. What follows from such a shift is far from predetermined. One possibility is that the shock of American disengagement catalyzes greater European unity and strategic coherence. Another is that the loss of U.S. leadership accelerates internal divisions and geopolitical vulnerability. Which path Europe takes will depend on choices made now — by policymakers who should prepare for contingency, not continuity. EUROPE LEFT ALONE YET MORE UNITED In the first scenario, European NATO member states respond to a sustained American withdrawal by expanding their security capacities through a range of measures, including the formation of new partnerships, the enlargement of their armed forces, and the strengthening of domestic defense industries. Unlike more ambiguous past episodes, Washington is now making its intentions clear through concrete actions — systematically withdrawing from Europe and signaling that it no longer considers the continent a strategic priority by either de jure or de facto dismissal of security agreements. In an effort to concentrate on countering China and driving a wedge between Beijing and Moscow, Washington either intensifies cooperation with Moscow or begins clearly recognizing a Russian sphere of influence in its immediate neighborhood. These moves send a message that the U.S.-European alliance is no longer a U.S. priority, and the United States is not likely to be positioned to come to Europe’s defense in the event of Russian aggression — or be willing to do so. European leaders come to recognize that their only viable path forward lies in developing a more unified and strategically coherent security architecture. In the absence of U.S. leadership, previously peripheral actors become more central. The United Kingdom, despite no longer being part of the European Union, takes an important role by mobilizing support from Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia to contribute to European security initiatives. At the same time, the United Kingdom maintains close ties with the United States and increasingly acts as a bridge between the two sides of the Atlantic. War on the Rocks is the op-ed side about policy and national security for general readership of the Siamese twins produced by and for the University of Texas. Texas National Security Review is their scholarly publication. Posted by: Besoeker 2025-06-13 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=765521 |