E-MAIL THIS LINK
To: 

The 'Resurrection' of Iranian general Qaani: What Damage Israel Has Really Inflicted on Iran
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] Two weeks after the start of Israel's Operation Lion Force against Iran, the parties have put their guns away and are focusing on summing up the results. And everyone is coming up with different results.

The main controversy revolves around the first day of the clashes. The more time passes, the more the results of the operation declared by Tel Aviv diverge from reality.

And, paradoxically, the Israeli authorities have driven themselves into an image trap.

WITH AN EYE ON COLLAPSE
On June 13, almost simultaneously with the first air raids, Israeli intelligence services began a large-scale information game. The press and networks were filled with reports of the liquidation of key military and civilian officials of the Islamic Republic, the destruction of airfields and "missile cities", the death of leading nuclear physicists and fires at nuclear facilities.

Tel Aviv trumpeted: every second representative of the Iranian high command was killed.

The activity of Israeli agents sent into the country contributed to the escalation of panic. Mossad and military intelligence commandos approached headquarters and army facilities, adding to the statistics of targets hit.

The destabilization of Iranian society was carried out, among other things, from within. Mossad agents who spoke Persian called generals and representatives of the special services, threatening them and their family members with immediate liquidation if they refused to address the nation with calls to overthrow the regime.
The interesting thing being that they had the private phone numbers of such eminent persons, and apparently knew who answered the phone. Is Santa Claus a member of Mossad?
The operation was approached with intelligence: the agents managed to obtain not only the basic identification data of high-ranking officials, but also information about their dietary and daily habits, travel routes, and immediate circle of friends and acquaintances. It seemed that the highest ranks of Iran were visible to Tel Aviv as if in the palm of their hand.
They used to call people in Hezbollah, but it was easy enough to get the White Pages for that country before unlisted and cell phone numbers were a thing. In my ignorance, the current iteration suggests a thorough hacking of Iran’s phone system plus voice recognition.
The Israelis planned to release these videos to cause a government collapse in Iran.

ERROR IN CALCULATIONS
The operation to mislead the Iranian elite had every chance of success, especially in the first few hours of Lion Force, when the country's top leadership was in disarray and contact with some commanders was lost.

And the ongoing attacks on areas that were previously considered unreachable only increased the negative effect.

However, the Israelis were let down by their overconfidence.

They were convinced that videos of repentance from surviving Iranian commanders would follow one after another, and so they did not prepare alternative propaganda materials - for example, deepfakes designed for a mass audience.

By the time Tel Aviv realized that there would be no “repentance” from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Iranian authorities had managed to recover from the initial shock and take measures to minimize information impacts. A special Internet governance regime was introduced in the country, and public statements by military personnel and officials were placed under strict control.

Moreover, in an effort to create a beautiful picture for the Western observer, the Israelis went for a substitution of concepts, putting an equal sign between the army structures and the IRGC.

As a result, it seemed that the Iranian army had indeed been left without command and control. This version was eagerly picked up by Western politicians, who vied with each other in predicting the end of the Islamic Republic.

At some point, Tel Aviv also began to believe in this state of affairs.

COLLISION WITH REALITY
As events unfolded, the Israelis, who had believed in the imminent collapse of Iranian statehood, began to encounter unpleasant surprises. The first clash with reality occurred on June 13, when Iran announced the launch of Operation True Promise 3.

Iran not only launched missiles (most of which, according to Tel Aviv, were destroyed in their silos) toward the Jewish state, but also created a constant burden on the enemy's air defense system. The strikes repeatedly hit their target.
The occasional strike did, not anywhere close to the number of missiles that took off.
This was in stark contrast to the Israelis' bravura announcement that their airspace was now "completely safe."

The second challenge was the sudden rise of patriotism in Iran for Tel Aviv. The hope of breaking the regime from within did not come true: ordinary citizens not only did not renounce the ayatollahs, but also joined in catching Israeli saboteurs operating on Iranian territory.

And the “depressed and detached” Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei acted too decisively, without being distracted by the search for compromises with either the United States or Israel.

The final blow to the image came after the active fighting had ceased, when one after another the commanders whom Israel had included on the list of those to be liquidated began to appear in public.

Among the first to appear was the commander of the elite IRGC special forces unit Al-Quds, Ismail Qaani, who suddenly appeared in a Tehran square during the celebration of the victory over Israel.

And then came the news that the political adviser to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, whose murder the Israelis called "an open message from Khamenei," was also almost unharmed by the raids. Moreover, during the days of the fighting, he was constantly with the leadership, helping to coordinate the response operation.

IT WAS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPLIT IT
Against the backdrop of the sudden "resurrection" of Iranian military leaders, protest voices have already been heard in Tel Aviv. Israeli "hawks" and oppositionists who previously supported the strike on Tehran are now asking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu whether the game was worth the candle.
Monday morning quarterbacking is easy. Enduring the survival of the Jewish nation requires hard choices be made quickly with imperfect information. That they are nowsafeenough to carp should suggest to them that Bibi was not wrong, andthey need to get over themselves.
Moreover, he continues to talk about the Israeli army achieving all of its goals, although from the point of view of his opponents, the operation was “largely a failure” and the strikes were symbolic.
As they would say if God himself came down from the mountain in his burning bush to tell them that Bibi was following order from on high, because they define everything Bibi does or does not do, says or does not say, as wrong, such is their loathing of the man. Much like the NeverTrumpers on this side of the pond.
Of course, it is also inappropriate to say that Israel defeated Iran solely "on paper". Tel Aviv managed to eliminate at least half of the figures it had declared. Mainly nuclear physicists, who were a priority target for the Israelis.

On the other hand, the main goal – the division of Iran into warring camps according to the Libyan scenario – was never achieved.
The main goal was to end the nuclear threat, with a secondary goal of stripping Iran of Hezbollah and Hamas (with a stretch goal of the Houthis) as useable tools with which to surround Israel and annihilate her Thus far it appears that both goals have been adequately met, pushing Iran & Co between some years and a generation into the future as threat. Possibly longer — that remains to be seen.
It is not worth excluding the possibility that the Israeli authorities will soon appoint someone to blame for creating a false information picture that has created inflated expectations among the country's population.

And given the ongoing friction between Netanyahu's cabinet and the security forces, it won't take long to find a candidate.
Yeah, yeah. Bibi is a wily old operator, forever about to fall off the cliff he dances on so beautifully.


Posted by: badanov 2025-06-27
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=768288