Fresh Coup Attempt Against Qadhafi Involves Family
Source: Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily (password required)
A serious, although unsuccessful, coup attempt was made against the Libyan leadership of Col. Muâammar al-Qadhafi on December 5-6, 2002. Absolutely reliable, first-hand sources confirmed to GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily that widespread arrests occurred beginning December 6, 2002, following the unsuccessful attempt. It was also understood that a number of Qadhafi family members were involved in the attempted coup, which was not only aimed at the ailing Col. Qadhafi â who is now well-advanced in his terminal cancer â but also against his "chosen heir" and son, Saif al-Islam.
So Muammar's about to peg out, and the family wants to do the silken cord routine on Saif, because some of the other fruits of the old man's loins want to be in charge... Only thing missing is the Grand Vizier, standing in the background, stroking his beard -Fred...
Full specifics of the coup attempt were not available as of late December 11, 2002, other than the fact that there appeared to be a link between the coup and another son of Col. Qadhafi, Dr Moatasam al-Qadhafi, who now lives in exile in Egypt, following a major disagreement with his father. Dr Moatasam, until the beginning of 2002, maintained a militia unit separate from that of Saif al-Islam, but this was forcibly disbanded after the disagreement in early 2002. Several "cousins" within the Qadhafi family were also reported by GIS sources to have been involved. Sources close to Col. Qadhafi said that the Colonelâs response to the coup attempt was "confused", and noted that his health was now deteriorating rapidly.
He's knocking at death's door, is he? -Fred
This meant that the response to the coup was clearly in the hands of the loyalists within the security apparatus, almost certainly that run by Hannibal al-Qadhafi. It was also understood that some of the coup organizers, apparently mostly within the Gadadfa tribe of Col. Qadhafi, were supportive of another son of Col. Qadhafi, Mohammed al-Qadhafi. Engineer Mohammed, who is from a different mother to Saif al-Islam, Moatasam, Saâadi, Hannibal and Aisha (whose mother, Safiya, comes from the key Baraâasa tribe, near Beida), is regarded as the most conservative of Qadhafiâs sons, and is understood not to control his own militia. [Hannibal, the youngest son of Qadhafi, does not maintain his own militia, but essentially works directly with Col. Qadhafi, maintaining control over his immediate security.]
They expect the old man to keep this stuff straight when he's whacked out on morphine?
Sources said that it was possible that support and planning for the coup attempt could have come from Dr Moatasam in favor of a group within the Gadadfa supporting Eng. Mohammed, on the basis that he was the most capable of the Qadhafi children to succeed the Colonel. However, it is known from close family sources that Col. Qadhafiâs wife, Safiya, had, in recent weeks, been lobbying hard to get her brother-in-law, Abdullah Senussi Megrahi, brought back into favor to help support the fortunes of her son, Saif al-Islam, in the succession process.
Shouldn't she be a Circassian wench, with fire in her eyes? Or was I thinking of another Oriental fantasy cliche? -Fred
It is not known how successful her attempts have been. Abdullah Senussi Megrahi â not a member of the Senusi clan which traditionally has ruled most of Libya â was the head of strategic intelligence before Moussa Koussa. Saif al-Islam had, along with External Security Organization (ESO) chief Moussa Koussa, been working hard to win international support for Saif al-Islamâs succession of the Colonel. Moussa Koussa, largely regarded as one of the Colonelâs "old guard", had clearly thrown in his lot with Saif al-Islam as the most favored successor.
"Yar, lad! I served yer paw, an' now I'll serve you! T'gither we'll lop off all their heads! Now, here's me plan..." -Fred
Outlook: The Libyan power structure of Col. Muâammar al-Qadhafi is collapsing rapidly, with the predicted infighting among Qadhafi family members now erupting openly and the Armed Forces standing by, without supporting either Qadhafi or the fighting family members because they regard all this as a spectator sport. The US and UK, in particular, have stood by also laughing their heinies off and made no major preparations, although it is believed that the Egyptian authorities have, indeed, taken steps to ensure their position. Egyptian Pres. Hosni Mubarak regards Libya as an Egyptian sphere of influence, and it is possible â even probable â that Egyptian authorities were at least aware of the alleged involvement of Dr Moatasam al-Qadhafi in the latest coup attempt. If that is the case, or even if it is not, Col. Qadhafi must now assume that Pres. Mubarak has decided to move against him.
This could get very ugly before it's over.
Posted by: Steve 2002-12-11 |