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Afghanistan

Maybe smaller attacks from Tal-Qaeda

2002-04-03

Coalition forces are expecting a shift toward smaller attacks directed at Western targets inside Afghanistan as Taliban and al-Qaida fighters regroup after Operation Anaconda. The last U.S. offensive showed the Taliban and al-Qaida operatives may need to reassess their tactics and move more toward attacks in a "variety of terrorist styles," said Maj. Tony De Reya. That could mean hit-and-run raids on troops or bomb attacks. The forecast was based on theory, rather than intelligence about specific attacks on soldiers, journalists or local leaders. De Reya spoke at Bagram Air Base, where about 110 of Britain's elite Royal Marines landed early Wednesday - part of Britain's first overseas combat deployment since the Gulf War a decade ago.
It would make more sense from a tactical point of view, but it will also depend on Haqqani's objectives. The pinprick attacks are harder to fight against and if the plan is a long drawn-out war of attrition that makes sense. But military actions are taken in response to political aims, not as an end in themselves. Since they see the Loya Jirga coming up and a diminution in the perceived legitimacy of the Taliban, they may very well aim for a more spectacular, public-relations oriented series of strikes. The disadvantage to that is the body count. Show a modern Western army a human wave forming, and they'll call in air support first thing. The same applies to concentration of force; even if Haqqani has an intial success at some point, he won't be able to exploit it because he has no way of maintaining a reserve. All his troops are shock troops, which is like having a toolbox with nothing but hammers.

Posted by:Fred Pruitt

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