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| Middle East |
| Likely Arafat successors keep out of sight |
| 2002-04-04 |
Among them is Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, one of the original negotiators of the breakthrough 1993 Oslo accords. Oslo led to seven years of negotiations before the uprising erupted in September 2000. He broke new ground in the mid 1990s when he became the first leading Palestinian to accept Israeli claims to parts of Jerusalem that had been captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war - a position Arafat tentatively endorsed by the time of the Camp David talks in the summer of 2000. Such trendsetting made Abbas an early leadership contender, but a reputation for being too conciliatory to Israel - stoked partly by Arafat to deflect criticism for his own concessions - now stalks him. Still, Arafat recently named Abbas as one of two leaders of an interim government should he step down. The other interim co-leader is Ahmed Qureia, the speaker of the Palestinian Parliament, also an Oslo veteran. Qureia, also known as Abu Ala, has an easygoing style that has won him friendships over the years with his Israeli counterparts. He is persistent about getting back to the negotiating table and recently met with Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres to explore ways out of the impasse. The two Palestinian security chiefs, Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza and Jibril Rajoub in the West Bank, are also frequently named as likely leaders. Their principal advantage over Qureia and Abbas is that they are younger and "locals" - many Palestinians resent the elites who assumed control after returning from exile in 1994. Both men helped lead the 1987-93 uprising and served in Israeli prisons, where they learned to speak Hebrew. Both are moderates, but now that they are directing resistance to the offensive, they are making themselves scarce. Israeli forces leveled Rajoub's headquarters in Ramallah on Tuesday. Israeli media reports suggested that the target of that operation was not Rajoub but Marwan Barghouti, a leader of the current uprising who is also sometimes mentioned as a possible Arafat successor. Barghouti was known as a moderate before and still avoids some of the radical anti-Israel rhetoric that has flourished recently. He has earned points for leading some of the demonstrations at roadblocks and is on Israel's wanted list for allegedly masterminding attacks. It makes sense for any serious successors to Yasser to stay out of sight. Not only do they risk catching an IDF bullet by accident, they also risk Yasser's bully boys "accidentally" potting them if they seem too powerful, and Hamas snuffies hunting them down for lack of fanaticism. Probably the strongest contender is Barghouti, who heads Tanzim. That also makes him likely to catch twice his body weight in lead from the IDF. |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |