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| India-Pakistan |
| India set to launch 'small war' |
| 2002-05-31 |
| Indian military sources say India has secretly told the US and Britain that it will wait two weeks to see if international diplomatic pressure halts infiltration of Islamic militants into Indian territory. "This could be easily verified by monitoring [radio and telephone] intercepts," says Ret. Major Gen. Ashok Mehta, an Indian military analyst. If infiltration does not significantly drop, a senior Army official says India plans a 10-day assault in Kashmir. "It will be like Kargil [the 1999 war between India and Pakistan]," says Mr. Mehta. "The military action will be predominantly infantry led and intensively supported by the Air Force." The short Indian military operation is designed to capture territory and destroy the infrastructure of Islamic militants quickly. The battle-field scenario, says a senior Indian military official, is premised on the calculation that it will operate under the nuclear threshold and that the international community will step in to prevent the conflict from escalating. That would be using what they've got — lots of infantry, some of it very good, and an adequate air force — rather than rigging something elaborate that'll be more likely to fail. Within the first 48 hours, India is expected to attack the Neelam Valley Road across the Kupwara sector in Indian-held Kashmir, says an Indian Air Force officer involved in the planning. The Indian Air Force will try to destroy an important bridge over the Jhelum River which connects Pakistan with Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. But "Indian action will attract heavy Pakistani punishment," says General Mehta. Not so heavy if the Paks use retirees and jihadis as their first line of defense or for a counter-incursion. Suman says this is a possibility: "If Pakistan has fought wars before using retired soldiers and massed civilians as shock troops, using them again to launch an offensive into Indian territory is not unlikely. It would be a one-sided crap-shoot. I would not want to be an Indian soldier forced to fight untrained civilians and old men. The spin value of such a strategy to Musharraf would be invaluable."Perv's problem at that point wouldn't be spin, but self-defense, and sending large numbers of people with targets painted on their chests would be a phenomenally stupid move. And world opinion — certainly at that point — wouldn't care. All the civilian press would see was a bunch of dead men in uniform, shot while invading. The press didn't notice that the thousands of Iraqis surrendering at the end of the Gulf War were cannon fodder, barely trained farm boys whose panic and demoralization then spread to the regulars. Meanwhile the folks back home would be asking each other what in the world he was doing as the casualties mounted like they did in the Afghan jihad. In the Kargil conflict, the Indian government decided not to cross the 460-mileLine of Control that divides Indian-held Kashmir from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This policy was to ensure that the "limited conflict" did not escalate into a full-fledged conventional war. The two nations have fought three wars since gaining independence from Britain in 1947. Two of the wars were over Kashmir. If it starts this time, maybe they'll finish it and the world can move on to the next intractable problem, secure in the knowledge that violence never solves anything. |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |