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| Axis of Evil |
| Abu Nidal hit was a warning? |
| 2002-08-21 |
| High-level sources close to Chairman Yasser Arafat have confirmed that the killing of Abu Nidal (Sabri al-Banna) was a warning from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to resume the war against Israel "with full vigor" or face the same. Arafat made moves in that direction as soon as the message came through, with probes at Israeli targets on August 20th. That means that at this moment Sammy is the driver of the intifada. We've been looking for his connection with al-Qaeda, while we've been ignoring his much more obvious connection with the Paleostinians... Saddam has been forced to take the initiative against the U.S. His available funds have been dwindling, while his expenses have been soaring with preparations for war, such as the acquisition of spare parts and the purchase of new early-warning radars from Ukraine. The pressure Bush is applying here isn't the most glamorous, but it worked for Reagan against the Soviet Union. Better to avoid war entirely if you can spend them into collapse... Abu Nidal was allegedly found dead in his apartment on August 20, 2002. A Palestinian newspaper reported he had been dead for three days. Western media, based on initial translations, called the death was an "apparent suicide". The original Arabic text actually described it as a "self-caused" death. That's where you're surrounded by hard boys and rather than sticking your hands up, you whip out a rod, hollering something like "You'll never take me alive, coppers!" And they don't. Since Abu Nidal died of multiple gunshot wounds, it was apparent that his death was likely not a suicide. Not unless he was a really bad shot, really determined, and at some point was standing behind himself... There seemed little evidence that Abu Nidal had actually done anything specific against Saddam, but rather was used to demonstrate that no matter how high-profile a revolutionary icon he was, Saddam could kill him at will. I thought that bit about being in contact with the Kuwaitis was pretty lame. Even if he'd gone free-lance, the available market for his organization has actually dwindled. Unless it was at the most clandestine of all possible level, it didn't include the Kuwaitis, and probably not even the Syrians. The reports that Abu Nidal had terminal cancer and was on constant pain meds would be an argument in favor of suicide, except for the multiple gunshot wounds. But since he was on his way to the boneyard anyway, Sammy would likely have considered his departure from this vale of tears as more profitable if it could be used as a lesson to someone, rather than letting it occur in the natural course of events. Abu Nidal did know a lot about the Iraqi connection with terrorist groups, almost certainly including al-Qaida. But I don't think that counted for much. He was an idea whose time had come and then gone, his organization no longer a major player in the Middle East. Who was going to take him in, regardless of what he had to trade? His elimination would carry a greater return than the cost of keeping him... First news of the death emerged through Ramallah, Chairman Arafat’s headquarters city, not in Baghdad. Iraqi confirmation came on August 20th, when Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz confirmed the "suicide" to foreign journalists. The real "message" was to Arafat and his team not to be tempted by Western pressures to move toward a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute. Or even toward relative peace. Sammy can't afford it at this moment. It sound like someone — maybe Big Achmed and the boys — brought the news from Baghdad, along with a more definite statement of the warning... President Bush called an unusual meeting at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, on August 20th. Among the attendees was Vice President Cheney. Occasions when the President and the Vice President are in the same location have been very rare since September 11th. Also present were Condoleeza Rice, Donald Rumsfeld, and other senior national security figures. The cover story was that the meeting was to discuss defense planning, which is probably an accurate statement that does not convey the full significance of the discussions. There have so far been no leaks of details of the discussions to Congress, nor were Congressional representatives included in the meeting. And on the same day a group of Iraqis occupied the Berlin embassy, jogging the national elbow. That must have complicated matter still further. The White House team probably gathered to work out a united position on Afghanistan and Iraq before meeting with Congressional leaders. Bush has said hhe would not attack Iraq before the November elections. There are factors mitigating against that promise and trying to rush events, however. Collusion — willing or unwilling — between Saddam and Arafat will increase that pressure. There are the usual nay-sayers explaining that it's impossible to win against Sammy. The Archdruid of Canterbury's against it. Henry Kissinger's not enthused. Labour is pushing for the Brits to stay out. The Canucks don't want to help. Germany's agin it. Russia's trying to do business as usual with Baghdad. And the Soddies and Iranians, staring into the pit, are frothing against it. Given the short national attention span and the enthusiastic support he gets from Congress, Bush stands a chance of losing his momentum and seeing (genuine) public support melt away into apathy. There are countervailing pressures to do something before that time, probably in October. The White House's concern now is with the credibility of the alternatives to the Ba'ath regime in Baghdad. Which leads to the question of what the opposition has actually being doing all this while? Two Palestinians and an Israeli soldier were killed in separate incidents on August 20th, the same day the IDF withdrew from Bethlehem in the implementation of the "Gaza First" plan. Israeli troops raided Tulkarem refugee camp in the northern West Bank, sparking clashes in which one Palestinian militant was killed and at least three other people were wounded. Issam Jayusi, 27, a member of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, was killed in one exchange. Natural occurrences? Or have the Paleos gotten the word to jack it up? Sometimes it's hard to tell. If there's a booming in the next couple days with heavy casualties, that'll clinch it... We can expect to see the Arab-Israeli confict escalate as Arafat complies with the diktat from Baghdad. At that same time, Iraq is trying to engineer a situation in which any attack on Saddam will result in a wide-scale Arab-Western war. The Iraqis have significant numbers of agents working in the PA territories, and may be the driving force in continuing the Arab-Israeli conflict. I'm actually not too sure about that — I'd have said, yesterday anyway, that Iran was the driver, through Hamas and Islamic Jihad. But nobody asked me who drives al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades... Just as the US as been attempting to build consensus among its allies, Iraq has been working to line up its own allies and assets for the conflict. Saddam is attempting to regain the intiative in the confrontation, and may actually be working to bring matters to a head sooner because of the financial pressure it is under. Forcing the U.S. to act prematurely could result in failure to reach the objectives set out. If a non-fatal and indecisive engagement can be engineered before November, the results could show in the elections, and Bush could emerge too weak to actually mount a full-scale campaign. The above is a paraphrase of a slightly longer article in a defense periodical. My thanks to the person who sent it to me! |
| Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
| #5 Frank G. the Moran! Doesn't he co-author a Blog with Mindles H. Dreck? And isn't it JUST AWFUL when your carefully-crafted putdown gets spoiled by faulty spelling? ;o) |
| Posted by: Old Grouch 2002-08-21 19:50:02 |
| #4 ooh...apparently you can vouch for those with half a brain - thanks for correcting me |
| Posted by: Frank G - the Moran 2002-08-21 17:19:00 |
| #3 anyone with half a brain knows that Saddam Hussein hates wahhabis and people like bin laden. you crooked attempts to produce a link between the two will be exposed sooner rather than later! |
| Posted by: you people are morans! 2002-08-21 14:18:53 |
| #2 At least the Saddamites know how to build a coalition. Am I the only one who is sick to death of diplomatic niceties with animals who hold Clausewitzian views on diplomacy? |
| Posted by: Allah the Dog Faced God 2002-08-21 11:19:27 |
| #1 Why would this serve as a warning? Abu-nidal and Yasser were bitter enemies, wouldnt Yasser be doing the endzone dance when he heard this news? I did notice the glee on the voice of Bush this morning when this issue was brought up and he seem to intimate that this was an asassination. The scuttlebutt this morning was that it was Mossad. So, in recent history, we've got Qusay geting a hollywood wound, the media acendancy of something called the 'Iraqi oppostion" Bush getting tagged by the NYT for failing to attack al qaeada in northern iraq and now a washed up islamicowboy having a accident while cleaning his revolver. All background noise or "S" wave before the quake? |
| Posted by: Frank Martin 2002-08-21 11:18:01 |