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Middle East
Paleos to "demilitarize" uprising for a year...
2003-02-22
Top negotiator Saeb Erakat confirmed yesterday that the Palestinian leadership had decided on a one-year "demilitarisation" of the uprising against Israel. "The Palestinian leadership and Fatah movement agree with a year-truce which was outlined in the Cairo paper, Abu Mazen was just reiterating this point," said Erakat, referring to a proposal turned down by radical militant groups during talks in Egypt in January. The document called for a one-year freeze on anti-Israeli operations to allow the peace process to resume on the basis of the "roadmap" drafted by the Quartet which envisions, among other things, a Palestinian state by 2005.
Mmmm... That carrot sure looks tasty! Lemme... Whoops!

The "truce" seems to involve Fatah. If it includes Hamas and Jihad, we can count on them not adhering to it. Likewise elments within Fatah that are "beyond Yasser's control" like Tanzim and al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. On the off chance that they might, the IDF is expected to cease rounding up or killing the Paleosnuffies. If I was Sharon, and I paid any attention to this at all, I'd tell 'em to expect an answer in three months, unless they broke the "truce" sooner, in which case there would be no need for an answer.

FOLLOWUP: Toldja so — not that it took a lot of brainpower to call it...

Israel has told Hamas to abide by an Egyptian-drafted ceasefire document or face all-out war, the Israeli daily Haaretz reported yesterday. Senior Hamas official Abelaziz Rantissi rejected Israeli threats. Haaretz said Israel sent emissaries last month to inform Hamas officials it was ready to make a gesture if the group were to accept a ceasefire. But the tone hardened on Monday when it warned Hamas against turning down a truce document reportedly being drafted by Egypt's intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, and dubbed the Palestinian "National Project Plan."
Why even bother talking to them?
Cairo has hosted several Palestinian inter-factional ceasefire talks since last November. But the meetings have failed to produce results and several hardline groups, including Hamas, have pledged to continue their armed operations against Israel. Hamas official Rantissi, however, denied the existence of any such Egyptian-drafted ceasefire document or contacts with Israeli mediators. "We were not informed of the existence of such document and (have not received) any such message from the Zionist enemy, either written or spoken," Abelaziz Rantissi said.
"In fact, we deny they exist, too..."
And Islamic Jihad spokes-man in the Gaza Strip, Sheikh Abdallah Asshami, said his group "cannot abide by a truce ... (while) the crimes of the (Israeli) occupation are continuing... It is up to the occupation forces to come up with a proposal to put an end to its presence and its crimes."
"Call us when you have something for us to look at..."

Yasser's been delegitimized, to the point where if anyone said "ceasefire" he'd say "yes!" before they got past the "fire." Sometimes he says yes, even if nobody offers. Sharon has politically pulled the old guy's pants down, knocked him over in the schoolyard, and given him a dutch rub. In the process, he's lost the bit of control he did enjoy, as his prestige was destroyed and his hard boys bumped off. Hamas has oozed into the vacuum, and they're more resilient than Fatah because they have a more flexible leadership oligarchy — Yassin, Rantissi, Zahar, Shanab, and Marzouk up in Lebanon, liaising with Hezbollah and the Syrians, plus whoever's the head of the military wing right now. Hamas has already announced they're ready to take over from Yasser, realizing he's a spent force. So they've become the dangerous enemy — al-Aqsa and Islamic Jihad are both wannabes. If Sharon can drive a wedge between them and Fatah, or if they simply drive it themselves in their Islamic arrogance, the IDF can concentrate on banging them while the next successor organization is a-forming in the background — or concrete steps are taken with someone who pretends to be Fatah, but actually intends to have a Paleostinian state, with the responsibilities of a state.
Posted by:Fred Pruitt

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