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Iraq
Are we fooled by the press?
2003-03-06
While we are made believed that the northern front plans are possibly abandoned, the military activity shows things maybe different. There is a possibility of secret agreements between the Turkish government and the US while the whole discussions unleashed in the world media are a big distraction. Why should the US army rent 8 locomotives and 300 transport wagons from the Turkish railways and the freighter ''CEC MERIDIAN'' dock in the port of Iskenderun if the northern front has been abandoned? The hot front page news at some internet sites of Turkish papers quote that unloaded US army equipment has started to leave the port of Iskenderun to be deployed in Mardin (Iraqi border)


At the same time huge convoys of Turkish armoured vehicles left their bases in Urfa to be deployed in Habur (Iraq border). The explanation of all this could be secret agreement of a joint US-Turkish invasion force.
Posted by:Murat

#16  Kathy, many other posters have expressed your point which I think is very valid. It seems as though it has boiled down to the fact that they will not let the troops in. We can fly over, our equipment may be transported to the front and they may even fight with us. But, basing the troops....well, if it saves us 30B - how bad can that be?
Posted by: becky   2003-03-06 20:09:30  

#15  I did note that the vote was about basing troops in Turkey, not about moving troops (and equipment) through Turkey.
Posted by: Kathy K   2003-03-06 18:39:27  

#14  A few days ago, DEBKA claimed that a few thousand members of the 4th ID were in Turkey already, in civilian clothes. FWIW.
Posted by: Pete Stanley   2003-03-06 14:38:48  

#13  We may jump off with whatever we have in Turkey/Kurdistan now, maybe just enough to secure an airfield in N. Iraq, then run an airlift op into that airfield for insertion of the main body of troops in the north. Cumbersome, and more dangerous, but probably doable.
Posted by: mojo   2003-03-06 10:47:31  

#12  I keep hoping it's a diversion, but considering the huge drop in the stock market, it probably wasn't part of the plan. It does seem likely the equipment will get to Iraq - even if our troops never step foot in Turkey. An aside from other article today says (in last sentence) "The pro-establishment daily Milliyet claims that 20,000 Turkish troops have already penetrated the enclave despite fierce opposition from the two main Kurdish factions administering northern Iraq." What exactly does fierce opposition mean? Fierce words or fighting? I'm very curious as to whether this is old news or a dangerous sign of aggression by the Turks.
Posted by: anonymous   2003-03-06 10:47:08  

#11  I doubt that this is a deception operation and that we'll suddenly wake up in a few days and find the 4th Infantry Division poised in southern Turkey. Instead, I think this is some lower level operation -- perhaps shipping equipment to the Kurds or prepositioning equipment and supplies for those U.S. forces that do eventually end up in Northern Iraq.
Posted by: Patrick Phillips   2003-03-06 10:12:20  

#10  Isn't the hold-up about US troops and not the equipment? The equipment is still needed in northern Iraq. Then it's just a matter of getting the troops there somehow. Assuming an assault from the south only, opening of the northern front could be delayed by a week. I think the Kurds will play a big part in the north, if Turkey doesn't help.
Posted by: RW   2003-03-06 08:28:21  

#9  Murat, you're obviously closer to the situation. All I know is what I read.

The top general meets with the prime minister in private. The Turkish government IMMEDIATELY reverses its stand that there will not be a revote. The general makes a public statement that support US troops incountry. The Speaker of the parliment praises the military for their actions in this matter.

Sure, all politics is local. But Ozkok delivered a message in his private meeting. Why else would the government reverse itself prior to the elections, when they could have continued the same stonewalling rhetoric until your elections were done?

In any event, publicly the US is saying that Turkey is out as an option. This is a maskirovka, a deception, since I believe that we will use the ports of Turkey despite the civil government's position. The military will ensure a swift and quiet move from the coast into Iraq.
Posted by: Chuck   2003-03-06 08:25:29  

#8  Do the math:
2 AFVs per rail car, one round trip per day. How long does it take to transport 4ID to the border?
Posted by: Tom Roberts   2003-03-06 08:12:07  

#7  Chuck, see the real reason of the rejection:
elections
Posted by: Murat   2003-03-06 08:08:01  

#6  Hate to disappoint you Chuck, but the voting has more the way of a stunt from the ruling Turkish Ak party who wants to have a strong public support in the by elections in the Siirt province (a continuation of the general elections of November 3). Ak party leader Recep Erdogan could due to a court verdict against him not candidate and so has Abdullah Gul from the same party become prime minister instead of him. With the by elections the Ak party tries to gather public support for candidate Erdogan, a voting of the parliament pro deployment of American troops could have spoiled the candidacy of Erdogan since the public opinion is strongly against war. http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=8455

After the march 9 (elections) the new motion to allow US troops will with high probability passed, nothing to do with the military pall, just politics.
Posted by: Murat   2003-03-06 07:49:01  

#5  Harumph!

I told you so.

The conversation went something like this:

Mr. Prime Minister, do you like your job?
OK, then we're clear. The military will support the government as long as the government supports the military.

And in a week or so:
What Americans in Turkey? There are no Americans in Turkey. They are all in Nothern Iraq.
Posted by: Chuck   2003-03-06 07:26:39  

#4  Here are the links CNN
And the Turkish newspaper zaman

Almost all Turkish newspapers show in their late minute hotnews the US material movement
Posted by: Murat   2003-03-06 07:05:11  

#3  Interesting, but please provide the source.
Posted by: anonymous   2003-03-06 06:19:29  

#2  Is the Turkish Army running an end-around their Parliment ?
Posted by: Domingo   2003-03-06 05:47:23  

#1  Wow some weird things are going on latest news reports that the US army has rented the Gaziantep city airport and the railroad is being extended from the city Nusaybin to the city of Cizre (Iraqi border) for troops deployments. US officials have started renting houses and depots in the city Silopi.
Posted by: Murat   2003-03-06 05:36:44  

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