| Submit your comments on this article |
| Iraq |
| Saddamâs War |
| 2003-03-10 |
| It was the usual creepy military parade through downtown Baghdad. Some of Saddamâs fedayeen (âmen of sacrificeâ) were dressed in dazzling white uniformsââthe color of a shroud, because we expect to die,â explained a 24-year-old fedayeen leader. More jarring were the fedayeen garbed in the familiar tan camouflage of the United States Army. Saddam has ordered thousands of uniforms identical, down to the last detail, to those worn by U.S. and British troopers. The plan: to have Saddamâs men, posing as Western invaders, slaughter Iraqi citizens while the cameras roll for Al-Jazeera and the credulous Arab press. DELUSIONAL THOUGH he may be, Saddam knows he cannot militarily defeat the American armed forces. But he can try to delay and deceive even after the bombs start falling. He is counting on staying alive until political pressure inside and outside the United States forces President George W. Bush to call off the dogs. Saddamâs survival strategy is a long shot, and probably hopeless. Judging from the subdued but steely resolve he showed last week at his press conference, Bush appears determined to remove the Iraqi strongman, no matter what. But Saddam has every reason to believe, from watching street demonstrations around the world on CNN as well as following the deliberations of the U.N. Security Council, that his stalling tactics can sway international opinion. And he has an all-too-real chance of turning the invasion of Iraq into a bloody nightmare. Saddamâs best allies are time and space, deceit and poison. He will do whatever he can to slow the march on Baghdad, then turn his capital into âa Mesopotamian Stalingrad,â says Iraq expert Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, referring to the World War II city battle that claimed a million German and Russian lives. While American war planners are unsure about the precise details of Saddamâs defense, it is possible to map out the Iraqi strongmanâs most likely moves and to ponder his nastiest surprises. As the U.S. forces push north out of Kuwait, they may encounter their first serious resistance at An Nasiriya, a town on the Euphrates River near Basra in southern Iraq. According to a former Arab intelligence officer, Iraqi officials have ordered Iraqi Army troops to dress in civilian clothes to fight the attacking Americans. U.S. intelligence does not expect Saddamâs regular Army, which consists of some 300,000 demoralized, frightened conscripts, to put up much of a struggle. The Iraqis remember the last confrontation with American B-52s and armored columns. âThis generation faced the U.S. Army in Kuwait,â says the former Arab intelligence official. âTheir friends died in 1991.â The liberation of southern Iraq will unleash a wave of score-settling that could bog down the Americans on the way to Baghdad, and Saddam may flood the Mesopotamian plain to further slow the U.S. advance. Saddamâs elite Republican Guard, some 60,000 troops, could stand and fight. More likely, Saddam will pull his best soldiers back into Baghdad. He has already moved a 10,000-man division of Guardsmen back from the city of Mosul in the north to guard his nearby home-town, Tikrit. The United States will try to rattle Saddamâs defenders into surrender with a âshock and aweâ air campaign, 3,000 precision bombs in the first 48 hours. And Saddam will try to inspire his troops to be good martyrs by threatening to kill them himself. The battle for hearts and minds has already begun. U.S. psychological-warfare specialists, based at Central Command headquarters in Qatar, routinely bombard the Iraqi troops with propaganda. âLeave now and go home,â read one of 420,000 leaflets dropped over southern Iraq last Tuesday. âWatch your children learn, grow and prosper.â If war comes, CENTCOM psy-warriors will take over the Iraqi airwaves and broadcast that resistance is futile. The CIA is already trying to infiltrate Saddamâs officer corps, offering cash and other incentives. âThe commanders who carry out Saddamâs last orders,â warns a senior U.S. intelligence official, âwill be killed or tried as war criminals.â Hated by his own subjects, Saddam has to hope that his people loathe the American invaders even more. Iraqi citizens have been given arms to fight house to house. Most will likely hide or surrender. But not the 15,000-man Special Republican Guard, made up largely of Sad-damâs fellow tribesmen, nor Saddamâs Special Security Organization, a force of some 5,000 thugs and torturers who will be strung up by mobs if captured, and thus have every incentive to fight to the last man. Iraqi workers have been digging trenches all around Baghdad. Some intelligence sources believe that Saddam will order them filled with oil and set afire. The picture is almost medieval, a âwall of flameâ around the besieged citadel. Saddam hopes to dull Americaâs technological edge: a thick pall of oily smoke would interfere with the laser guidance system used on some American bombs. (Far more bombs, however, are aimed by satellite, which would be unaffected.) American warplanes and cruise missiles will try to kill Saddam on the first night and every day and night thereafter. Moving from bunker to bunker and using doubles, he may escape. Aiming precision bombs and exotic high-tech weaponry to destroy Saddamâs communica-tions, American air power could cut off the Iraqi leader from his men. But isolated, sur-rounded only by sycophants, Saddam may not know he has been defeated until American soldiers kick in his door. That could take weeks, and if Saddam can slip out of Baghdad and go underground, the hunt could go on for months. The most pressingâand disturbingâquestion is whether and when Saddam will use weapons of mass destruction. Saddam may want to hold off, at least for a while. If he uses bio-chem weapons, he âcrosses a very important psychological threshold,â points out Brookingsâs Pol-lack. The Iraqi leader could no longer claim in the court of world opinion that he has no WMD; he would, in effect, be justifying the American invasion. U.S. intelligence officials are sharply divided over Saddamâs intentions. In some ways, they say, chem-bio weapons are more of a scary bluff than a true threat. Properly trained and equipped troops, especially those riding in airtight tanks, can slip unscathed through a toxic cloud. Still, Saddam may use the WMD he is said to possess, and poison gas can cause chaos and possibly panic among support troops in rear areas. Even the most gung-ho soldiers could be unnerved by a gas at-tack as they waited to ford a river or crash through a berm. Conceivably, Saddam could strike first. In a CENTCOM war game staged last year, a retired U.S. Marine general playing the role of Saddam created havoc by using Arab dhows plying the Persian Gulf to deliver suicide bombs against American troopships before they ever reached port. (The war game had to be stopped and started over; the Marine general, accused of playing unfairly, walked out in disgust.) Itâs too late for Saddam to try this particular trick, but he could create mayhem by unleashing biological agents in the American bases (Camp New York, Camp New Jersey, Camp Pennsylvania) that sprawl over much of northern Ku-wait. Some intelligence sources believe that Saddam possesses both Scud missiles and un-manned aerial drones that could deliver WMD. The United States has limited defenses against a germ-warfare Pearl Harbor. Pre-emptive airstrikes are not the answer. True, American warplanes operating out of bases in the Gulf and flying off five (soon to be six) aircraft carriers can crisscross Iraq at will. Iraqi air de-fenses will be lucky to shoot down more than a few planes. NEWSWEEK has learned that the Pentagon tested, only days ago, a new double-warhead bomb that can slice through concrete and steel containers and, an instant later, incinerate their poisonous contents. But precise weapons require precise intelligence, and Air Force target planners complain that the intelli-gence community has yet to identify the locations of Iraqi WMD storage sites. Saddam is hardly above gassing his own people and pretending that the Americansâthe âCrusaders and Jews and infidelsââare to blame. Many Arabs watching Al-Jazeera would believe him. Antiair-craft batteries and tanks and artillery have been placed beneath and be-side mosques, hospitals and schools. Even the most accurate American bombs could produce atrocious TV images. To combat Saddamâs psychological warfare and refute disinformation, CENTCOM has created a ârapid-response team.â CENTCOM will try to provide photographic proof to back up its claims, releasing footage from gun cameras and other weapons systems as well as before-and-after photographs from satellites. Truth may not be an adequate defense. The longer a war drags on, the more the casualties mount, the greater the risk that Saddam will really lash outâsay, by lobbing a biological weapon at Israelâthe greater the pressure on Bush to end the war. It is not hard to imagine the president caught in an increasingly uncomfortable bind. Shocked by television images of human carnage, demonstrators will take to the streets at home and abroad. Politicians will call on Bush to get it over with, to declare victory and go home. The military, on the other hand, will want to slow down once U.S. forces reach a still-resistant Baghdad. The U.S. Army tries to avoid urban warfare. America loses its high-tech edge in cities; helicopters are vul-nerable to street fighters armed with crude rocket-propelled grenades, as the movie âBlack Hawk Downâ vividly displayed. Baghdad is vastâ2,000 square miles, almost one-and-a-half times the size of New York. Fighting block by block could take weeks, with casualties running high. Bush does not seem inclined to back down from any fight. But Saddam has reason to ques-tion American staying power. In the first gulf war, when American bombs wiped out a bunker filled with sleeping civilians, killing more than 400, the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Colin Powell ordered an end to the bombing of Baghdad. When American warplanes created grisly images by bombing Iraqis fleeing Kuwait along the âHighway of Death,â Presi-dent George H.W. Bush, at Powellâs recommendation, ended the warâprematurely, as it turned out. Bushâs son wants to finish the job, but at what cost? Saddam has learned a few lessons from that first war. According to defectors at the time, the Iraqi chieftain told Baath Party leaders after the gulf war that he made a mistake by releasing Western hostages before the fighting began. This time, he may try to hold Western reporters now in Baghdad, or relief workers, or even U.N. weapons inspectors (the Unmovic team keeps a large helicopter at the ready for quick evacuation). Saddam will almost surely use âhuman shields,â including some Europeans who have unwisely volunteered for the job. Most Saddam watchers assume that, ultimately, the ruler of Baghdad, who has stayed in power for three decades, wants to survive and believes that he can. But what if he becomes convinced that he is doomed after all? Does he have an apocalyptic plan to bring down Iraq with him? American spy satellites have seen Iraqi troops move tons of explosives into Iraqi oilfields. Saddam is apparently preparing to torch the fields, unless American paratroopers get there first. In 1991, Saddam blew up about 700 oil wells in Kuwait, creating an ecological disaster and costing about $40 billion to control the fires and cap the wells. Iraq has 1,500 wells. Saddam could decide to take Baghdad with him. One Arab intelligence officer interviewed by NEWSWEEK spoke of âthe green mushroomâ over Baghdadâthe modern-day caliph bidding a grotesque bio-chem farewell to the land of the living alongside thousands of his subjects as well as his enemies. Saddam wants to be remembered. He has the means and the demonic imagination. It is up to U.S. armed forces to stop him before he can achieve notoriety for all time. |
| Posted by:ISHMAIL |
| #7 haha good one, mhw! As for WMD, if Sam should decide to use them, I'd recommend forcing Chiraq, Schroeder & Blix (& Putin & the Chinese guy if we could nab them) to help with the clean up.. without protective suits. In fact, use them as canaries, like they did in mining! |
| Posted by: RW 2003-03-10 17:15:42 |
| #6 Badanov, The worst casualties the US Navy took during WWII were during the Okinawa campaign. Suicide attacks were very effective because the anti-aircraft technology was not up to stopping what was essentially the first generation of guided anti-ship missiles. Having said that, our technology and morale was more than up to the task of handling the land-based human wave banzai charges. And we will be more than capable of handling any Iraqi suiciders. However, given the flaccid Iraqi performance during GW1, I doubt it's going to be a big issue. |
| Posted by: Dreadnought 2003-03-10 12:23:36 |
| #5 Since we have so few arabic speaking allies, the idea of Saddam's troops disguising themselves as Americans is not likely to fool many Iraqis. It could, however, fool Jimmy Carter or Hans Blix. Of course even a fake nose and glasses could fake them out. |
| Posted by: mhw 2003-03-10 12:19:06 |
| #4 I hope the balloon goes up without being publicly announced. With 300,000 servicemen packed into a small area concentrating for attack, it'd be to Saddam's advantage to use whatever WMDs he has just before any deadline expires and before the troops have the space to deploy and disperse. |
| Posted by: Dar Steckelberg 2003-03-10 10:06:46 |
| #3 When the word came down in December 1944 that German troops were using American uniforms to infiltrate, my dad strapped on his .45 and went back to work. Infiltrating the enemy in their uniforms is a good way to die, and die quickly. An alert military, and we will be, cannot be seriously disrupted by infiltrators. |
| Posted by: Chuck 2003-03-10 07:38:04 |
| #2 Where to begin... The Iraqis do not manuever their forces, period. The last time they tried to maneuver their forces, they were immolated against US heavy forces. As I posted elsewere, if they dig in their forces, they will still be immolated, but at least their best chance is to manuever against US Forces. I believe the threat to use suicide forces against US forces. I believe it will happen and I believe they will cause huge casualties, amounst themselves, not to US forces. I guess liberals forget the Kamakazi of WWII; lots of dead pilots and wrecked planes, but not much damage to US forces . But that's okay. Liberals are for sh**ting on when they are wrong and they are wrong in this case. As I recall, it was predicted that it would ten years to cap all the wells set afire by the Iraqis, but it took only six months. Cross this off the list and please excuse my yawn. I guess it will be a shame should Saddam decide to commit suicide using strategic weapons, but then I am torn by the argument that this man and his henchmen being the torturers and murders of unarmed peope they are, are basically pussies; not likely to cause harm to themselves, but far more likely to kill large numbers of their countrymen. I think they have a strong sense of self preservation and an even stronger sense of ego, which will not permit them to conclude that it will all be over soon. One final note: I have a personal theory about 'elite' forces of variuous stripes as well as military units. I believe when you take a military force of any size and set them firing on civilians for the purposes of suppressing revolt and for other reasons, you will erode whatever combat efficiency they may have to the point that when they are faced with real professional forces that fight, move and communicate, they will evaporate from the battlefield. I think for all the advanced billing Iraq's remaining forces have for their equipment and their training, I think they will be completely degraded to a rabble by air power and eventual military engagement. |
| Posted by: badanov 2003-03-10 05:13:17 |
| #1 And we have frankenreich to thank for this possible scenario. That we must never forget. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-03-10 01:46:06 |