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| Iraq |
| In the Swing: Undecided Lobbied to Support Resolution |
| 2003-03-13 |
| They are known as the swinging six and it has nothing to do with wife-swapping. These are the member states holding America to ransom over war on Iraq. You can spot a swinger by the swagger in his gait and the crowd of hysterical journalists surrounding him. The Pakistanis, Chileans, Mexicans, Cameroonians, Angolans and Guineans are visibly basking in the attention, and the gossip is intense. "Am I enjoying being at the UN at this time? Of course. It's fantastic," the Pakistani ambassador, Munir Akram grins. Fun it may be, but the swingers face monumental problems. For all six nations, support for America's war could mean political suicide at home (Pakistan and Guinea have large Muslim populations, Mexico and Chile cannot be seen to be slaves to the US, and Angola, Cameroon and Guinea are supposed to be part of the African Enjoy Gunter, especially when Colin brings those contracts German companies signed with Saddam into the Security Council. As he moves across to the enormous bank of television cameras, he stops for a brief chat with a journalist who suggests that their opposition might leave Germany and France isolated in Europe. The notoriously placid Pleuger explodes. "Isolated! Isolated! Who can try and isolate France and Germany in Europe! We'll show them who's isolated!" Yes, we will, won't we? The trouble is, of course, America is using all the diplomatic means at its disposal to put pressure on and isolate the swingers (or as someone "upstairs" called them, "the bidders" - some cynics think they are out for as much money as they can get in return for support). Up on the secretary general's 38th floor it is understood that Colin Powell has only bothered with the UN to help Tony Blair. And depending on who you believe, Powell's effort is not going particularly well. "I can't see Pakistan voting for war," muttered one nervous-looking official. "They'll get the votes," said another blithely. "Everyone's in the bag." One thing is for certain, and that is that nobody is very impressed by the Americans' strong-arm tactics. "Say $100 million to these Africans and they see the stars," says a senior official. Russian ambassador, Sergei Lavrov, says the Americans suffer chronically from "Tsar of the hill syndrome". "They tell you this has been decided in Washington and here are the reasons why you must agree." "Okay, then $200 million." Charm, it is widely agreed, is not Washington's forte. The Pakistani ambassador smiles. "Do they actually threaten us? They don't have to. Pressure? We get a lot of, shall we say, delicate phone calls." The general perception is that the three African swingers have been bought by American promises of aid, though accusations are flying about the possibility of aid being used as a political weapon. "Contrary to Clare Short's instructions, aid has been withdrawn from Cameroon unless they comply," a Frenchman says. "Hardly likely," says an Englishman. "Using aid in that way sounds more like something the French would do." Game, set and match to the Englishman, and would you please wipe up the blood you spilled on your way out? America, though, likes to leave the bickering to the non-hyper powers. Bush tends to go for veiled, or completely open threats. He has publicly promised to "discipline" Mexico for lack of compliance, a statement that brings Mexico's dashing UN ambassador, Adolfo Aguilar Zinser, to a state of ironic twitching. The feeling in the Mexican mission is that the US couldn't do much to hurt them that it isn't doing already. Everybody is disappointed by Bush's unfulfilled promises to them and America is hardly likely to shoot itself in the foot by going back on trade agreements already in place. There are, apparently, "wimpy fear-ridden intellectuals" who believe Mexico should just get in line behind Big Brother, but the government refuses to play its cards too early. They don't want to "pay the cost of any decision in advance" but they do admit that the pressure from America is "intense". That's for sure. A highly reliable Pakistani source tells me that Bush put in a call to Pakistan's General Musharaf last week, ostensibly to congratulate him on capturing the al-Qaida number three. He makes clear, though, that the "line of control" in Kashmir is worrying him. Word at the UN is that Musharaf's position is near-impossible. He faces total opposition to war against another Islamic country at home, but he relies for his own personal and political survival on American support. "America is very helpful to Pakistan," says Ambassador Akram. "It could also be very unhelpful." And we can turn on a dime. And then there's Guinea, the small African nation that has suddenly found itself at the centre of the universe. Not only is president Konte taking calls from Bush and Chirac on his death bed, but Guinea also finds itself president of the Security Council. The assumption is that Guinea is "more than happy to vote for America and to stiff France" for whom it has "a visceral dislike" since their big falling-out in 1958. The ambassador, Mamady Traore, is not as open as that on the issue. Swishing about the place in yellow taffeta gowns and his white hat, he smells strongly of expensive aftershave. "We know exactly what we're doing," he grins. Must ... not ... comment ... on ... wardrobe ... "They have no idea what they're doing," says a senior UN official. People recall Boutros Boutros Ghali's famous joke. When asked how many people work at the United Nations he replied, "About half". "It actually makes me laugh," says Edward Mortimer, aide to secretary general, Kofi Annan. "The non-permanent members usually complain that the P5 [the rich countries with the right to veto] take all the decisions between themselves and ignore everyone else. Now they're complaining that the P5 are incapable of sorting things out among themselves and are expecting us, of all people, to take the decisions." "We are not undecided," says Traore, looking undecided. "As president of the Security Council we should not choose any camp. We are trying to create consensus. If I fail, my government will give me instructions on how to vote." Guinea, though, is in an appalling quandary. The African alliance has already come out as anti-war, but Guinea does not want to be seen backing France, nor does it want to appear to have been bought by America. I get the sense that Guinea has decided, and they'll vote for us. "There has been abysmal diplomacy on both sides," a 38th floorer says. "America is making everyone dig their heels in with its strong-arming and France was stupid to get so antagonistic so early. It's not about Iraq any more, if it ever was. This is a diplomatic game of chicken." |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #11 Does the Thugocracy in Guinea have an opposition? Want to spend some money? |
| Posted by: mojo 2003-03-13 16:38:47 |
| #10 Relax folks. "Justice must not only be done, it must be seen to be done" It must be clear that Bush absolutely exhausted all the options before it is shown how irrelevant the UNSC is. Oh, and... F*%k Chiraq. |
| Posted by: RW 2003-03-13 13:34:16 |
| #9 The ambassador, Mamady Traore, is not as open as that on the issue. Swishing about the place in yellow taffeta gowns and his white hat, he smells strongly of expensive aftershave. "We know exactly what we're doing," he grins. Am I reading this right? Oh, I'll bet. We gotta kiss this guy's (?) ass to get a vote? Screw it, start the war! |
| Posted by: tu3031 2003-03-13 12:22:00 |
| #8 I agree AWW Bush now seems no different than the UN and I too am waning in my support. The problem is what else is there to support? France? |
| Posted by: Sam W 2003-03-13 11:21:01 |
| #7 Parabellum - I keep telling myself that but since I've being doing it since January it's starting to ring hollow. If the UN vote get pushed back again after Bush flatly stated at his press conference it would happen this week he (and the US) look ridiculous. |
| Posted by: AWW 2003-03-13 10:46:20 |
| #6 Fret not kiddies. We're going to war no matter what happens in the U.N. |
| Posted by: Parabellum 2003-03-13 10:29:04 |
| #5 Another deadline...another deadline...Its one thing to help out a friend like Tony Blair, but its entirely another to become just like the UN. American troops are injured and dying in training exercises while fat cat ambassadors talk about how rough negotiations are over formal dinners. |
| Posted by: bob 2003-03-13 10:25:09 |
| #4 What al-guardian doesnt mention is that Japan is also lobbying the undecideds, especially "pacific rim" Chile and Mexico, to support the US-UK-Spain. Good for Japan. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2003-03-13 08:26:23 |
| #3 The feeling in the Mexican mission is that the US couldn't do much to hurt them that it isn't doing already. Perhaps the Mexican mission can find the DPRK Ambassadors and ask what the DMZ is like... |
| Posted by: Brian 2003-03-13 07:04:04 |
| #2 You know what? Wobbly George is nothing but a French Toast. I am disusted with this clown. And I trusted him to do the right thing. Like Poppy, like Son. |
| Posted by: Katherine 2003-03-13 01:59:12 |
| #1 This back-forth is getting me very, very nauseous. One of my few consolations in all this mess is to know that these leeches are finally having to work for my money. And getting much indigestion. We should not have to strong-arm. On the bright side, a lot of that money we do give them will go right back out to NY to fund th UN, if we walk. |
| Posted by: Anonymous 2003-03-13 00:56:39 |