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| Iraq |
| Mass desertions before war even begins |
| 2003-03-19 |
In northern Iraq, on the border with Kurdistan, up to three-quarters of some Iraqi regiments have already fled. In the mainly Shia Muslim south, Kuwaiti border guards are having to turn Iraqi soldiers back - telling them that they must wait until an attack begins before they can surrender. And in a highly significant development in Baghdad a half-brother of President Saddam, who is regarded as the dictator's closest adviser, has fled in the past week to Syria. [...] Relying on human intelligence - British and US special forces already within Iraq who are observing Iraqi military movements as well as establishing contacts - and covert aerial surveillance, it is estimated that 73 per cent of the regular Iraqi army in the south of the country has already made up its mind to surrender to British and US troops. In one dramatic example, the reports note that a US "psy ops" - psychological operation - unit dropped leaflets on Iraq's 51st Mechanised Division on March 9 and March 10. Four days later, 20 per cent of the division had deserted and was no longer in the area. "Many of those who have already gone are reporting that the rest are preparing to surrender," said an intelligence officer. In northern Iraq between 43 and 75 per cent of regular soldiers, depending upon their regiment, have already fled. Iraqi tribal leaders in the region have also abandoned Saddam and defected to the Kurds in the Northern No-Fly Zone. Two days ago in the town of Chamchamal, 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the Iraqi border with Turkey, soldiers attempted to surrender to the Kurdish civilian population. They were fired upon by their own side, causing civilians to scatter. In and around Baghdad the desertion rate is lower, but even among Saddam's elite Republican Guard divisions - whose loyalty to their leader has been unquestioned until now - 23 per cent have deserted. On the Iraq-Kuwait border, where British and US forces are now massing, Saddam's unwilling soldiers are being turned back on an hourly basis. "We are seeing Iraqis trying to come across the border, saying they want to surrender, but we are having to turn them back and telling them that they must wait until the war begins," said an intelligence officer. |
| Posted by:growler |
| #4 News is that a sandstorm is keeping everyone holed up for six or seven hours more. However, I'm sure we may sacrifice a few choppers to move some Special Forces into place under the cover of the storm. (I.e. they'll fly, but may need early maintenance.) |
| Posted by: Ptah 2003-03-19 19:04:10 |
| #3 Indeed, while they "wait out" shock and awe in their bunkers (or hidden country huts?) we'll get the special forces in place? Sounds like a good plan to me. |
| Posted by: tcc 2003-03-19 16:48:14 |
| #2 Keeping them waiting, with their eyes to the sky while we move into position to lock down the high risk targets- wmd, oil wells, scuds- sounds like one of the scenarios that may have been considered, hidden under the clock of "shock and awe"... although the 250M "US Weapons inspectors" who replaced the "UN Weapons inspectors" are really ready to see the rockets red glare. It sounds like a good start, considering the team isn't even out of the tunnel yet. |
| Posted by: Capsu78 2003-03-19 16:34:45 |
| #1 I might be proven wrong in an hour or two but wouldn't it make sense to wait with the invasion a few days longer? A few days of nerve wrecking waiting for the Saddamites who must know that doom is imminent. Maybe Saddam doesn't realize it because he probably kills the messenger of bad news but the smarter lot of the Iraqi military might crack and put things into its own hands. Maybe Saddam is killed and the military surrenders. This could mean a peaceful entry of U.S. troups, a possibly bloody and nasty war could be avoided and it would help mending fences with Europe (I know emotions are running high on France and Germany but somehow we must come together again in the future). Wouldn't all this be worth a wait of several days or so? |
| Posted by: tcc 2003-03-19 16:19:21 |