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| The Goal Is Baghdad, but at What Cost? |
| 2003-03-26 |
| The Goal Is Baghdad, but at What Cost? CAMP DOHA, Kuwait, March 24 The way to Baghdad is through the Republican Guard. The United States Army and the Marine Corps are now moving up supplies and getting their forces into place to take the fight to Saddam Hussein's most loyal units. According to the allied war plan, by the time the onslaught begins in earnest, the Iraqi troops will have been thoroughly pummeled from the air. There is little doubt that the United States military has the skills, training and weapons to take the capital and dislodge the Hussein government. The questions are how long it will take, and what the cost will be in terms of casualties, both allied and Iraqi. True, but every time Rumsfeld did open his mouth, it did the US cost an ally The Iraqis are trying to counter the allied strategy by carrying out guerrilla-style raids to disrupt the movement of troops and supplies and divert allied attention to threats in the rear. The advance on the Iraqi capital may also bring allied forces closer to the threat of chemical weapons, according to American officials. They are concerned that the Iraqis have drawn a red line around the approaches to the capital and that crossing it could prompt Mr. Hussein's forces to fire artillery and missiles tipped with chemical or germ warheads. Baghdad is what the United States military calls the center of gravity. It is the stronghold from which Mr. Hussein controls his forces, a bulls-eye for the American air war commanders and the final objective for American ground forces that have drawn up plans to fight their way to the gates of the capital, then conduct thrusts at power centers inside the city. From the start, the campaign to take Baghdad was envisioned as a multifaceted effort. It began with a cruise missile attack that was intended to kill Mr. Hussein. Government command centers and bunkers have been blasted with bombs and cruise missiles, attacks that can be expected to continue periodically. For all the talk about waging a punishing air campaign, the United States has been holding back some punch. The Pentagon removed hundreds of strikes from its attack plan in an effort to limit civilian casualties and damage to civilian structures. The calculation is that this approach will make it easier for American officials to receive public support and rebuild Iraq after Mr. Hussein is toppled. In contrast to the Persian Gulf war in 1991, Iraqi television is still on the air. Should American air power destroy Mr. Hussein's government a prospect that seems increasingly unlikely American ground forces would be rushed to Baghdad to fill the power vacuum. Otherwise, the role of air power is to weaken the government's command and control and knock out Iraqi air defenses, then provide United States ground commanders with air cover if American ground forces have to venture into the still-defended capital. Airstrikes will also be directed against Republican Guard forces protecting the approaches to the city, including their command and control, artillery and tanks. The goal is to weaken the units and freeze the Republican Guard in place so they cannot drop back and prepare for urban warfare. The land attack on Baghdad is still in its initial phases. The first step took place Sunday night when the 11th Attack Helicopter Regiment began to strike a brigade of the Medina. To set the stage for the assault, the United States military hammered Iraqi radar and tried to suppress surface-to-air missiles. But the Iraqis had a low-tech solution: they deployed a large number of irregular fighters who were equipped with machine guns and small arms. Darn, this is against the Geneva convention, the Iraqis play foul! As the helicopters took off, they flew low off the ground to make themselves less inviting targets for surface-to-air missiles. But that made them vulnerable to the small-arms fire. Thirty of 32 Apache helicopters were struck by small-arms fire. One helicopter went down, and its two-man crew was captured. The Army was so concerned that the Iraqis would get their hands on the technology that they fired two Atacms missiles today to destroy the helicopter. Because of bad weather after the action, the military had no report on whether they succeeded. The Apaches destroyed only 10 to 15 Iraqi armored vehicles. American military commanders say they are rethinking their helicopter tactics as a result of the events of the past 24 hours. Only 10 to 15? The weather has also become at least a temporary ally of the Iraqis. American military officials are forecasting several days of cloudy weather with 10,000-foot ceilings and 30-knot winds that will create sandstorms. The bad weather will preclude helicopter attacks and make it more difficult for allied warplanes to attack the three Republican Guard divisions around Bagdad. But the bad weather will not last forever, and American forces are using the time to get their forces into position and move up large amounts of fuel and supplies. The marines, for example, are laying a long fuel pipeline in Iraqi territory. American forces are also trying to improve the security of their convoys by deploying more armed escorts on the ground and by helicopter in response to a wave of attacks by Iraqi fedayeen and other irregular forces. During the stretch of bad weather, the Army hopes to keep the pressure on by firing Atacms surface-to-surface missiles. The weather will make it difficult for allied pilots to hit mobile targets, but the air war commanders could try to keep the heat on by dropping gravity bombs or cluster bombs. When the moment comes to battle the Republican Guards full tilt, it will be through a combined arms attack involving artillery, close air support and tanks. Army and Marine forces will be involved. After reaching the outskirts of the capital, American commanders envision a deliberate fight and say they are determined not to rush into the city. Yeah, that wouldn't be so wise of course, no rush. Rather, their plan calls for patient reconnaissance to try to pinpoint the location of Mr. Hussein, his top deputies and the main defenders of his rule, including internal security organizations and elements of the Special Republican Guard. They are hoping that residents will provide the necessary intelligence. ???? residents or agents? The goal is to avoid house-to-house fighting that could result in large American and civilian casualties. Instead, allied commanders envision thrusts at crucial power centers. Army combat engineers might be at the front of a formation to destroy barricades and other obstacles. Tanks could follow, protected by light infantry to guard against attacks, rocket-propelled grenades and antitank weapons. The formations would also be protected by air power, including spotters that would call in airstrikes and Apache helicopters, which could fire Hellfire missiles. Looks like another picnic scenario from Rumsfeld to me "If there is to be a fight in and around Baghdad, we're going to have to be very patient to establish the right conditions for us to engage in that fight," Gen. William S. Wallace, the commander of the V Corps, said in a recent interview. "I think that means forming joint combined arms teams that include Air Force, Army aviation, light infantry, armored forces, engineer forces that together can go after a specific target, for a specific purpose." |
| Posted by:Anonymous |
| #20 Hey Murat: Major Garrett on Fox broke the news just now that 1000 paratroopers from a base in Vincenza (sp?) Italy had entered the northern front. That along with the announcement earlier by the Military (the only brains in Turkey apparently) that they would not enter Turkey with more troops yet had secured a marginally better aid |
| Posted by: Frank G 2003-03-26 16:41:48 |
| #19 Wow! That they believed they could hide from us in the sandstorms is unreal. Maybe the Drudge title is right, Sandstorm from God. |
| Posted by: becky 2003-03-26 15:19:10 |
| #18 Reports are that the turkey shoot involving that RG convoy is underway. Highway of Death II it is. Sorry Murat, no sneaky Iraqi troop movements under the cover of sandstorms today. |
| Posted by: B. 2003-03-26 13:30:21 |
| #17 What happen Murat,you used to be a reasonable guy.Is that"Screw America milk"getting sour. If I remember right Turkey's haggling kept the 4thI.D.hanging around waiting for permision to land. Now your upset that America say's"Go piss up a rope".Let me clue you in on a fact of life:Everyone(governments included)have decisions and choices to make,Turkey made thier decision now they have to live with it. I guess the $6bn included in Bush' supplamentary budget doesn't mean much to you.Well that is fine with me you can take a handfull of sand and pound it. |
| Posted by: raptor 2003-03-26 11:56:44 |
| #16 We don't really need agents or the locals to point out the Ba'athist scum. Just look for the well-fed, even chubby, Iraqis. And Murat, I think you misread the real message of the Times' story - they're real, real scared that nothing absolutely horiffic has happened to the coalition troops yet. US politics is the Grey Lady's baliwick, first last and always. |
| Posted by: mojo 2003-03-26 10:44:13 |
| #15 They light up oil trenches in Baghdad every morning to try and stop the cruise missiles and GPS bombs. That's worked REALLY well. Now they send out a 1000 vehicle convoy they think can hide in a sandstorm. Military geniuses they ain't. And that's a HUGE, probably decisive, advantage to us. |
| Posted by: tu3031 2003-03-26 10:05:50 |
| #14 Murat, your highlighted comments have become a bit nasty lately. As I see it, you think we'd be better off dumping Rumsfeld, dumping the Geneva Conventions, and plunging headlong into Iraqi forces like a bunch of suicidal maniacs. You clearly suffer the delusion that our leadership and our military are inept. I wonder if your opinions reflect typical attitudes in Turkey. If so, it is perhaps best that our alliance with Turkey is crumbling. |
| Posted by: Tom 2003-03-26 10:00:42 |
| #13 And Turkey's refusal to allow the 4th I.D.has nothing to do with it? So, you suppose Turkey is to blame then, what about those politicians talking about "horse trading" and "bribing the Turkish belly dancer", they did their job excellent? |
| Posted by: Murat 2003-03-26 09:11:36 |
| #12 Force level scew-up - i suspect the military will end up blaming State and the politicals - if 4th ID was coming down from the north, they could use 101st for other tasks. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2003-03-26 08:52:39 |
| #11 It will be interesting to see who is really to blame for the great force-level screwup. I recall Stratfor running a piece claiming that Rummy was mad at the Army for being unable to get mobilized fast enough once he had agreed to a heavier force. The weather and time are against us so the administration obviously decided to roll the dice. The problem is Rummy/Wolfowitz/Perle etc. seem to have forgotten their Clauswitz and that nice little concept known as friction. I still don't understand why we aren't seeing elements of the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in region to do road patrol work. They can at least be flown in in a pinch. Using battle tanks seems less then optimal, that little matter of bridges that go crunch. |
| Posted by: Hiryu 2003-03-26 08:38:17 |
| #10 B., It is hard to believe that the Iraqi military planners don't know about the JSTARS and their ability, must be a reason they risk 1000 vehicles and I guess the timing during a sandstorm is not just a stupid coincedence. |
| Posted by: Murat 2003-03-26 08:14:47 |
| #9 And Turkey's refusal to allow the 4th I.D.has nothing to do with it?(I Suppose) I've been in Phoenix,Az.during sandstorms you will be driving along(50mph/about65kph)You'll see a brown wall in the distance,next thing you know all you can see is brown.There have been some horiffic pile-ups on the highways/freeways because visibility can drop too zero in a couple of secounds. |
| Posted by: raptor 2003-03-26 07:57:09 |
| #8 Murat - Read all about JSTARS. Sandstorms are irrelevant, trust me. |
| Posted by: B. 2003-03-26 07:37:39 |
| #7 I'm flattered, Murat, but that's not me you're talking to. I'll read the post and might comment later... |
| Posted by: Bulldog 2003-03-26 07:19:41 |
| #6 we've just learned who is our friend, and who is not. Sure buddy, "who is not with is, is against us". Must be a really comfortable way to make up who is friend or foe, and vouches for a lot of brain use. |
| Posted by: Murat 2003-03-26 07:12:00 |
| #5 "True, but every time Rumsfeld did open his mouth, it did the US cost an ally" The utter cluelessness- the sheer stupidity- of this statement is simply breathtaking. It pains me terribly to point out something that should be patently obvious, Murat, but the truth is we haven't lost any allies at all: we've just learned who is our friend, and who is not. It is you, not we, who have cause for concern: in the space of barely two months your country's bumbling, venal leadership has transformed Turkey; once a trusted, valued friend, you are now a probable future enemy. What the hell are you people using for brains, anyway? Just curious... |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2003-03-26 07:03:14 |
| #4 Buldog read this link: fierce weather The Iraqis are definitely using the sandstorm coverage. |
| Posted by: Murat 2003-03-26 06:52:27 |
| #3 Hello Buldog, the Iraqis are maybe planning to make use of the sandstorm cover, or they rush in backup troops to keep a strategic position and maybe to rescue a valuable person of the Saddam familie, who knows. I have no idea of how severe such sandstorms can be, the Iraqis are taking big risks, interesting. |
| Posted by: Murat 2003-03-26 06:35:35 |
| #2 Latest reports have a convoy of perhaps 1000 republican guard vehicles headed towards the force that is "stuck in the Tigris delta". Remember the Iraqi retreat from Kuwait during Gulf War I and the result? Moving large columns of ground forces through open space when the enemy is in sole control of the air is suicide. Hey Murat, you don't suppose that drawing them out of Baghdad just might have been part of the plan do you? |
| Posted by: B. 2003-03-26 06:13:37 |
| #1 Sorry I forgot to put my name it is not Anonymous but Murat. It looks like American troops got stuck in the Tigris delta due to bad planning and the lack of backup reserves. The war has started without completion of the necessary force build-up due to political misfortunes and self-deceptions, believing that Iraqis would welcome the forces as âliberatorsâ. Where are those virtually supposed 100.000 peshmerga forces, intelligence reports show that in reality Kurds have only 30.000 light armed fighters, no match at all for the Iraqis to open the northern front or rallying the opposition forces a la Afghan style. Military strategists say it is unlikely that the planning has been made by Gen. Tommy Franks who stated the need of an additional army. |
| Posted by: Murat 2003-03-26 04:49:07 |