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| Iraq |
| Tikrit: Saddam’s Last Stand? |
| 2003-04-09 |
| Edited for length: A hundred miles north of Baghdad, Saddam Hussein's home town of Tikrit is bracing for the last battle, and what may prove to be the last stand of the Iraqi regime as the newly arrived U.S. 4th Division raced north from Kuwait to tackle the regime's last stronghold. Better hurry if you want those combat ribbons After British intelligence sources Tuesday clamed that Saddam had "escaped by minutes" the four 2,000 pound satellite guided bombs from a B-1 bomber that tried to target him in a suburban Baghdad restaurant, there are growing suspicions that he has made his escape from the beleaguered capital to Tikrit. Believed to contain the last intact Republican Guard units, from the Adnan and al-Nida divisions, Tikrit also contains a major air base, the Iraqi Air Force academy and Saddam's Tharthar Palace. Now smoking craters, most likely Allied air reconnaissance has established that nests of anti-aircraft guns are posted on rooftops throughout the city, and networks of defensive bunkers guard the approaches. "We believe that Tikrit is a stronghold for the regime leadership," commented U.S. military spokesman Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks. "Tikrit has not escaped our attention, nor has it escaped our targeting." Saddam's family name is al-Tikriti, signaling his birthplace some 65 years ago, and his tribe has been the greatest beneficiaries of his long regime. The al-Tikriti clan dominated the top ranks of the military and the Mukhabarat secret police. During his reign, the population of this sleepy, dusty town on the edge of the Syrian Desert swelled from less than 100,000 to over 260,000 as public buildings, palaces and military bases were built to reflect the new glory of the al-Tikriti. The town's glory is unlikely to survive the Saddam Hussein regime, and any attempt at a last stand will met an ugly fate from massed coalition air power and the high-tech weaponry of the 4th Division eager to win its spurs after fruitless weeks of waiting on ships of the Turkish coast, refused permission to land. These guys are pissed, better give up before they arrive So far under strong U.S. political pressure, backed up by the presence of the arrival by parachute late last month of the 173rd Airborne brigade, the Kurdish Pesh Merga militia have not advanced beyond their mountain strongholds to take Kirkup and Mosul. The Iraqi garrisons have withdrawn some 20 miles, under steady U.S air bombardments, but have not abandoned the two cities, which dominate Iraq's rich northern oilfields. Kurdish leaders, who have built up their own autonomous regions under U.S. and British air cover over the lest 12 years of the No-Fly Zone, insist that they understand Turkish fears and the political realities and will be content with an autonomous Kurdistan within an Iraqi federation. But as allies with the United States against Saddam's regime, and with the traditionally Kurdish city of Kirkup spread out tantalizingly below their advanced posts, the Kurds will not be easily dissuaded from trying to establish the independent state they have been seeking since the fall of the Ottoman empire 85-years-ago. The arrival of the U.S. 4th Division in the north gives coalition commanders a new political tool to help decide the political fate of the north. And armored reinforcements have been landing over the past 24 hours at the 173rd brigade's airbase at Hariri in the Kurdish-held region of northern Iraq, the first time M1-A2 Abrams tanks have been landed by air in a combat zone. Been waiting for these guys to appear, wonder which way they are headed, south to Mosul or north to the Turkish border? |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #6 Technical stuff like satellites generally belongs ot the NRO and the NSA. Our problem is the inverse - we de-emphasized HUMINT for too long (its much harder than SIGINT, and less reliable as well), but now thats the most effective stuff against terror organizations. HUMINT means you have to deal with some slimy characters, and people have to make judegement calls on whether someone is lying or not, and the risk they are willing to personally assume. Unfortunately, the fingerpointing, poll-driven policy and the disingenuous nature of the US Administrations during the 1990's (Clinton, and to a lesser extent the elder Bush) precluded any real ability to develop good HUMINT. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2003-04-09 17:34:44 |
| #5 If there was any town that deserved a world war 2 style carpet bombing Tikrit is it. |
| Posted by: Yank 2003-04-09 14:05:07 |
| #4 The Brits and Russian intelligence services never had to deal with the Church committee and Admiral Stansfield Turner. Only to be further ripped apart when Iran/Contra fell apart ten years later. Let's not forget that 8 years of Clintonian neglect and that Tenet is a Clinton appointee. |
| Posted by: Douglas De Bono 2003-04-09 12:19:34 |
| #3 Didn't the CIA go to the dogs in the 1990s by relying too little on human-intelligence and too much on technological intelligence like satellites? I imagine it takes time to reestablish good spy rings, where as the British may still have good long-established informants. |
| Posted by: A 2003-04-09 12:19:13 |
| #2 Does anybody know where the British are getting their Intel from? The French? If they know that he escaped before we did, we need to get some better intel. If the CIA gets "Out-Intelled" in this war by the Brits and the Russians, It should be a reminder of how badly neglected our CIA is. I'm not saying that the Brits or the Russians have been historically anyhting but good with Intel, I'm just saying that the CIA needs to be better than them. Especially the backstabbing Russians. |
| Posted by: Mike N. 2003-04-09 10:00:18 |
| #1 A "sleepy, dusty town" of 100,000? That doesn't quite jive with me... |
| Posted by: Dar 2003-04-09 09:39:44 |