PAUL GEITNER
Associated Press
While President Bush has declared major fighting over in Iraq, the repercussions of the war for the rest of the Mideast are just starting to be felt, and it's an open question about whether for better or worse.
| Ummm... I'd say better. How 'bout you, Paul? |
Radical regimes in Syria and Iran are suddenly toning down the anti-U.S. rhetoric and urging dialogue. Authoritarian leaders in Egypt and Jordan are talking — with varying degrees of enthusiasm — about democratization, while militants in the streets of Cairo and Amman predict a wave of new recruits to fight the American occupiers and their supporters.
| "Varying degrees" of enthusiasm translates into "little" to "very little" so far... |
Awed by Washington's display of firepower in Iraq, no one looks likely to claim Saddam's mantle as leader of defiance to the West. Even Syria, which likes to refer to itself as the "heart of Arabism," welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell this weekend for tough talk about its own weapons program, allegations that Damascus aided Saddam's regime and links to terrorism.
| I imagine the communiquÚ on this one will reference "frank discussions". Syria's kind of backed into a corner, though, so watch 'em — they'll try to bite... |
"The U.S. doesn't need to invade any more countries," said Iman Hamdi, an expert on Mideast affairs at the American University in Cairo. "We've got the message."
| "Of course, we're trying to interpret it into something more to our liking. I mean, it's not like we're ever willingly gonna give the common folk something as dangerous as personal liberty..." |
Lebanon also has felt the heat because of the presence there of the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group. Beirut regards Hezbollah as a legitimate resistance movement against Israel. But Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, seems worried too. "In the end, we are facing a new reality," he told supporters after the U.S. victory in Iraq.
| "Whattya think? Should we spit? Or go blind?" |
Iranian hard-liners are signaling a new willingness to consider the possibility of restoring ties with Washington, cut since the 1979 Islamic revolution and hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy. After Washington charged Iran was trying to promote an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq, Tehran was quick to deny it.
| "Nope. Nope. Wudn't us. Nope..." |
"Tehran does not want any friction with Washington over issues concerning Iraq," said Hasan Rowhani, secretary of Iran's powerful Supreme National Security Council.
| "We don't want no truck with them guys," he said, sullenly... |
Some have suggested Washington's professed determination to establish a democratic government in Iraq could have a domino effect in the region - depending on how it goes. "If it fails and Iraq descends into civil strife ... the effect would be devastating," said Fawaz Gerges, professor of Mideast studies at Sarah Lawrence College in New York. "Militant forces would be strengthened. America's vital interests and local allies would be endangered."
| "Yasss... Better never to have done anything, right?" |
Some of those moderate allies have been taking democratic steps, even if small ones. Bahrain had its first parliamentary elections in three decades last October. Qatari voters approved their first constitution this week and the first parliamentary elections are expected next year. In Jordan, which has been without a parliament for two years, King Abdullah II promises elections will finally go ahead June 17. "That'll get us back on the right track as quickly as possible," he said in a CNN interview. "We're not looking over our shoulder. I mean we're looking to the future and moving."
| "And we've got a good head start on the other kleptocracies around us..." |
By contrast, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak dismissed the notion that "imposing democracy by force" in Iraq would result in wholesale reforms in the Islamic world or a lessening of fanaticism. He said Wednesday that Arab countries were trying to bring democracy "according to their own standards."
| "If we don't tell the common folk how to vote, there's no telling who they'll elect. My boy might have to find a job! And the idea of letting people do whatever they want, whether the mullahs like it or not — well, that's just unthinkable." |
Mubarak wields ultimate control in Egypt under emergency laws in place since the 1981 assassination of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, by extremists opposed to the peace deal with Israel.
| Uhhh... That's 22 years of emergency laws. Was it Heinlein who pointed out that there's nothing so permanent as an emergency power? |
Saudi Arabia, an absolute monarchy, is also feeling rattled. Just before the war, the ruling family allowed human rights teams to visit and meet with reformers, a signal that it senses change is the best way to protect its rule.
| "Spit. Go blind. Spit. Go blind. Hell, I can't decide! How about you Abdullah?" |
Mass popular disillusionment with Arab governments after the Iraq war could also undermine the already divided 22-nation Arab League.
| "A curse on their collective moustache!" |
Rounds of summitry over the Iraq crisis degenerated into bickering and name-calling. Joint pronouncements against the war were undermined by some members who helped the U.S.-led invasion force, whether overtly or quietly. The league's "teeth are made of flesh," said Ayed al-Manna, a political analyst in Kuwait, which has sharply criticized the league.
| I'd have characterized them as decayed and rotted, myself... |
Some analysts say the main impact of the war may be to force Arabs and their leaders to address their problems — and the rest of the world — more honestly. "The only positive thing in the long run is it's going to make people here wake up to all the illusions they have with the West," Hamdi said. "It puts things in perspective and maybe then we can find a way to better serve our own interests."
| Maybe "Death to America!" isn't in your own interest, eh? |
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