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Syria-Lebanon
Beirut in the Grips of Damascus and Hizbollah
2003-05-27
BEIRUT – In Ein el-Hilweh, as in the other Palestinian camps in Lebanon, Fatah is in a weakened position against an ascendant Islamist coalition. This was evident in the assassination attempt against Abdullah Shreidi. Given the influence of each of the Palestinian forces on the Lebanese stage, the attempt was bound to provoke an explosion of violence which would undermine Fatah. The outcome was a show of Palestinian heavy arms and powerlessness on the part of the Lebanese army to restrain the fedayins. It offered the army another opportunity to underline the need for Hezbollah's armed presence in southern Lebanon.
Interesting commentary, synopsis only posted to EFL.

Interesting, and in line with what we were talking about Saturday. On the other hand, I don't see Hezbollah storming into Ein el-Hellhole and establishing any kind of order. As far as I can see, they're just as scared of the nutjobs as the Lebanese army is. I think it has something to do with the proximity to Israel, by the way, since the Shreidi bunch is the remnants of the Dinnieh Takfir wal-Hijrah bunch that the Lebanese army broke up a couple years ago — but that was in northern Lebanon...
Posted by:Brian

#5  Bomb-a-rama, right you are. Iran is the only country in the region that has a good shot at rapid democratization, and it is the only one in which most people are well-disposed toward the U.S. Equally important, it is the key to both Iraq and Afghanistan. I am hoping for massive demonstrations in Iran in early July, to be backed up by US military intervention if necessary.
Posted by: closet neo-con   2003-05-27 17:40:20  

#4  All we need to do is tell Assad that it's either him or the terrorists. I like this answer because it's an Arab mess, let them clean it up.

Bashar's "actions" will be nothing more than window-dressing, much like the supposed closing of terrorist offices in Damascus. The offices are closed but the people that staffed them are probably still doing the same thing, but from home.

With regard to cleaning up their own mess, they can't/won't. The only way things are going to change is if the US military pays a visit to Damascus. The only nation that has the potential to straighten itself out is Iran, if only the administration would get on with the task of supporting and assisting the Iranian opposition.
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2003-05-27 14:25:39  

#3  All indications are that Boy Assad isn't half the dictator strongman leader his Dad was and is actually controlled by the military hardliners and Baath leadership (rather than the other way around). It's questionable if he can stay alive or in power if he bucks these people. Don't count on much from him, except empty promises and status quo
Posted by: Frank G   2003-05-27 14:13:39  

#2  I am not sure taking out Assad is the answer and I know that 'turning Israel loose' is not. Assad is not like his father and may be a good avenue in which to 'clean out' the radical influence. All we need to do is tell Assad that it's either him or the terrorists. I like this answer because it's an Arab mess, let them clean it up.
Posted by: Cyber Sarge   2003-05-27 13:35:49  

#1  Nothing happens in Lebanon without some sort of Syrian influence. Take out Assad and turn Israel loose on Lebanon and watch what happens.
Posted by: Bomb-a-rama   2003-05-27 09:08:59  

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