TEHRAN: Faced with renewed domestic unrest and international alarm over their nuclear programme, Iran's clerical leadership have begun an urgent debate over whether to offer concessions or withdraw into siege mode, diplomats say.
| My guess is that they'll go into siege mode... |
Most analysts agree that more than a week of student-led protests posed no real threat to the nearly 25-year-old Islamic republic, largely because of the efficiency of the security forces and lack of any organised opposition network. But the sporadic unrest has nevertheless served as a reminder that frustrations remain as high as ever among Iran's massive and burgeoning youth population. And while protestors had previously voiced most of their anger over the ongoing reformist-conservative deadlock, backing moderate President Mohammad Khatami, the latest demonstrations have taken a new twist with the legitimacy of the regime itself coming under attack.
| The tipping point moved a notch closer... |
"The authorities were very quick to get on top of the whole thing," noted a European diplomat who closely monitored nearly 10 consecutive nights of protests around Tehran University, which appear to have largely fizzled out. "But the problem," he added, "is that hardliners see it as yet another reason to pull up the drawbridge, and the reformists see it as another argument for reforms." Behind the scenes, debate over a bid by the embattled president to boost his powers is reported to be heating up, with officials nervous that legislative elections in early 2004 could result in a catastrophically low turnout.
| If the elections don't result in any changes, why have them? It's more rewarding to lock yourself in the bathroom and explore your sexuality... |
The local press has also recently revived speculation that a state of emergency could be declared. Under that scenario, conservatives - possibly those loyal to powerful and pragmatic former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - would formally take power in a bid to reel in radicals from both sides.
| Rafsanjani, recall, lost his presidential bid to Khatami... |
Iran's right-left dispute has been rumbling along since Islamic clerics took power in 1979. But observers see the current international climate, especially with the new US doctrine of pre-emption, as having brought the internal debate over Iran's future to a head. And as the authorities were seeking to restore order to the streets around Tehran's university and others in the provinces, pressure has also come from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It has been focusing on Iran's atomic energy programme, something the United States sees as a top-secret bid to acquire nuclear weapons. Despite emphatic Iranian denials, widespread suspicions that Iran is on the path to having the Bomb have translated into concerted demands from the United States and Russia, as well as the European Union, Australia and the IAEA itself that Iran immediately open up to a tougher inspections regime. |