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Iraq |
Iraqi resistance takes on a new face |
2003-07-30 |
Away from the chaos and anarchy of other parts of Iraq, in relatively peaceful Sulaimaniya, experts are assessing the possible consequences of the death of Uday and Qusay on the four facets of resistance in the country. The groups are:
The resistance of the Arab tribes in the northern belt, meanwhile, is gradually changing shape. Virtually every day there is a declaration from a new Islamic group calling for jihad against US forces. These groups are, in fact, drawn from the tribes, who are attempting to give their struggle an ideological touch and broaden their influence. Their position, nevertheless, is in a state of flux, and while they are a force at present, they would need to become more organized in the future. The foreign Arab fighters are essentially a volunteer force totally dependent on their local allies for support, and for them it will likely be a case of united they stand, divided they fall once the going gets a bit tougher. Similarly, if the US forces fail to develop a strategy to set up a strong indigenous political system, the gangsters and looters are likely to elevate themselves as warlords - much like in Afghanistan - and they may develop links to militant groups fighting against the US for reasons of expediency. |
Posted by:Fred Pruitt |
#2 This is more wishful thinking from the jihadi-loving partisans at Asia Times, which has been wrong in every possible way about both Afghanistan and Iraq. Because they've been wrong for so long, it makes sense for them to roll the dice with even more dire predictions - they might get lucky once in a while and improve their record. These guys are great at predictions, so long as these predictions aren't about the future.* * OK - I stole that line from some big-time movie mogul - Sam Goldwyn, I believe. |
Posted by: Zhang Fei 2003-7-30 6:03:05 PM |
#1 but tribal leaders can be bought off, as in afghnistan, and in Iraq under saddam. Foreigners will either be limited number, as the borders come under control, or will be admitted as part of the flypaper strategy. As long as the Shia are quiet (note that first rotating president is leader of Dawa party - Iraq's first Shiite president?) the only real opposition is Baathists and gangsters. Baathists are on the run, and gangsters are ultimately a police problem - probably. |
Posted by: liberalhawk 2003-7-30 9:05:01 AM |