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Iraq
Al Qaeda Mobilizes All Its Forces for Iraq
2003-08-27
DEBKA, so remember to take your salt pills. They have been pretty good lately, in regard to Iraq. EFL:
In its last issue, Number 122, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reported a surge of electronic messages calling on every al Qaeda adherent in the world to mobilize for the battle in Iraq. ”Victory over the United States will be far quicker than many think,” say the messages. Never before, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terrorism sources, has al Qaeda staged a general mobilization. It is no propaganda exercise. The response has been enthusiastic and its impact noticeable. Al Qaeda combatants have been racing towards Iraq in large numbers along four main routes. The most surprising and most recent is the path from western Saudi Arabia through Iran, about which more hereunder.
A "general mobilization" would seem to indicate the big blow-off is coming. I think it's way too early for this. Is Qaeda making a strategic mistake? Or will the Dems manage to cause us to cave?
The Pakistani-Iranian route: Claims by senior Iranian leaders of having thwarted Al Qaeda attacks inside Iran are but a smokescreen for the mass influx of Osama bin Laden’s men into the Islamic Republic from the east: The group entering from the Pakistani border region of Baluchistan forms up at the Iranian cities of Zabol and Zahedan; the group from the Afghan town of Herat foregathers near the north Iranian city of Mashhad. Iran’s all-powerful Revolutionary Guards have their intelligence units conduct “security checks” at both assembly points to establish the terrorists’ real identities and origins. They are watched by men loyal to al Qaeda operations expert Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, who is thought to have set up his base in Tehran. Once they reach northern Iraqi Kurdistan, they join the Ansar al-Islam extremists heading south to Baghdad and the Sunni Triangle towns of Ramadi, Tikrit, Balad and Fallujah.
I hope they're keeping a tally of the number of Paks kill in Iraq, and any literature they've got with them...
Ansar is held responsible for the Jordanian embassy bomb attack in Baghdad last month. This Iraqi al Qaeda affiliate, once no more than 600 to 800 fighters, has swelled and set up two new units: Jund al-Allah, or “Soldiers of Allah”, and al-Usad, or “The Lions”, indicating a Syrian connection. (Bashar Assad’s name means lion.) Its members are deployed along the northwestern Iraqi-Syrian border, attaching themselves to the al Qaeda arrivals from Syria. The two groups have already executed joint strikes in the northern Iraqi oil city of Mosul. In one, they attempted to assassinate the local chief of police, but only seriously wounding him.

The Syrian route: At least 1,000 al Qaeda men have traveled along this busiest of all the corridors into Iraq, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terrorism sources report. Damascus International airport is logistical hub and main distribution point for Al Qaeda operatives flying in from Central Asia, Chechnya, the Balkans — mainly Kosovo and Bosnia — Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and even Iran. Many Al Qaeda fighters turned back by Iran for security reasons go round through Damascus, some hosted at the teeming medressas, or religious schools, other at Palestinian terrorist training camps operating in Damascus. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command receive a large part of their operational funding from Tehran and moreover collect a fee per head for every Al Qaeda operative they train. On their way into Iraq, Osama bin Laden’s men transit Syrian-Iraqi frontier lands dominated by nomadic Saudi-Iraqi-Syrian Sunni tribesmen. For almost a decade, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence and military sources reveal, Saddam sent monthly stipends to tribal, clan, business and clerical leaders ruling an area roamed by two million of these tribesmen. Once a year, Saddam resettled several thousand demobilized Iraqi officers and their families in the region with orders to assimilate and set up familial relations with the local tribes. Since the money dried up from Baghdad, Syrian-administered Iranian funds have been disbursed to those tribal leaders. As a result Saddam loyalists are still in control of the tribal regions which US intelligence has found impenetrable. A rare intelligence source knowledgeable about the region told DEBKA-Net-Weekly : “It is true that guerrilla attacks against the Americans are launched from the Sunni Triangle. However the logistics and the consignment of fighting strength to the Triangle are directed from the tribal territories.” In the last week, the flow of Syrian and Al Qaeda fighters across the frontier into Iraq has doubled.

The Saudi route via Iran: This is the newest channel, first set up in mid-July - but also one of the busiest, believed to have accommodated 1,500- 2,500 Saudi al Qaeda combatants transiting Iran at the rate of almost a thousand a week. Some are thought to be on the run from the Saudi hue and cry conducted against these fundamentalist terrorists since the May 12 Riyadh bombings. Another group appears to consist of Afghan-Pakistan combat veterans obeying the call to arms and eager for the chance of revenge for their rout in Afghanistan. They are also looking forward to an advance base from which to strike down the Saudi throne.
That part of it's doing wonders for the Soddies relationship with the U.S...
The opening of this route means that for the second time in two years Iran is granting Saudi al Qaeda combatants free passage from one anti-American battle arena to another. Like Syrian president Bashar Assad, who claims to know nothing of the al Qaeda fighters passing through Damascus, Tehran too says it is powerless to halt their through-passage into Iraq as tourists on valid Saudi passports. They all head to the western Ilan region, where local smugglers help them cross over to the Iraqi towns of al-Kut in the south or Baquba in the center.

The Saudi route via Syria: The same Syrian-Saudi Sunni Muslim tribes who crisscross the Iraqi-Syrian frontier also trek along a north-south route between Syria and Saudi Arabia via Jordan. En route, they collect Saudi, Yemeni, Sudanese and other al Qaeda fighters all heading towards the Iraqi battlefront.
This is turning from flypaper into a full-blown meeting engagement. You may have noticed that DoD has not revealed any bodycounts on how many of these "fighters" have been killed or captured and their nationalities. They seem to vanish into that same black hole as the WMD information and captured Deck of Cards people.
Posted by:Steve

#6   The way this is progressing there are going to be a lot of women in the Middle East without prospects for a husband and a lot of guys in China without prospects for a wife. Sounds like there ought to be an arbitrage opportunity here somewhere.

Given the prevailing attitude toward wimminfolk amongst the true believers, I suspect this is more of a plus than a minus.
Posted by: snellenr   2003-8-27 5:32:45 PM  

#5  Are you sayung that Al Qaeda is sending a lot of ?manpower? into Iraq? Sounds like we can end the WOT a lot sooner. A quick primer on Arab math. If they say 1000 they mean 10 (including two children). With us killing them in both Iraq and Afghan they will run out of faithful.
Posted by: Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter)   2003-8-27 5:24:36 PM  

#4  The way this is progressing there are going to be a lot of women in the Middle East without prospects for a husband and a lot of guys in China without prospects for a wife. Sounds like there ought to be an arbitrage opportunity here somewhere.
Posted by: Mr. Davis   2003-8-27 12:54:48 PM  

#3  I read someplace that cockroach corpses emit a stink that other cockroaches use as a hint to avoid the area in question. By suppressing the enemy dead list, but publishing ours, the turbans are convinced it's a turkey shoot. And so they all flock there, not realizing that THEY are the turkeys.
Posted by: Ptah   2003-8-27 11:28:08 AM  

#2  I found an e-mail from in-country and blogged it here Can't authenticate but so many e-mails are saying the same thing. Here is the key paragraphs:

TO ALL: Most interesting. This is a response to a message that said rules of engagement (ROE) were causing Army deaths and did not apply to the Marines.

No it's not true. The ROE are dictated by CJTF-7, not individual commanders. They are the same for Army and Marines, not to mention the Navy and Coast Guard. We're required to be armed at all times.

The two magazine rule is that you must have at least two magazines on your person at all times, this helps when you're engaging the enemy. Most people carry at least three pistol mags and seven rifle mags respectively. Both Army and Marine units openly display their weapons.

They both shoot when threatened also. Several attacks have been thwarted by Army and Marine personnel shooting first. We're also much better shots than the enemy. They tend to spray and pray, while we tend to just shoot them.

The Army has more attacks because their AOR encompasses Baghdad and the surrounding areas where the bulk of the attacks have taken place. I've noticed the press does a poor job in reporting our response to these ambushes. To put it plainly, we kick butt! The usual 'real' report reads: "Five IZ (Iraqis) fired AK-47s and RPGs at patrol (or convoy), soldiers (or marines) returned fire resulting in 3 KIA, and 1 WIA, 1 escaped. RPGs missed, AK fire ineffective, no US casualties."

We do take some casualties, and that is not a good thing, but we are very effective at counter-firing at the ambushes. Aggressiveness has proven very effective.
Posted by: Chuck Simmins   2003-8-27 11:21:51 AM  

#1  During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the Saudi's convinced many of the hard-core Islamists to jihad. I wonder if any of that is going on now regarding Syria and Saudi Arabia. It's easier to prop up your unpopular dictatorship if the really wacked guys leave. They end up looking like good Islamists while strengthening their own position.

Of course with Iran the reasons are certainly darker.
Posted by: Yank   2003-8-27 11:10:45 AM  

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